Myles Turner is still going through ups and downs with the Indiana Pacers, but there is little reason to worry about his future.
Myles Turner is only 21 years old. Just going by his age, he should still be in college, not playing basketball in the NBA as the Indiana Pacers starting center.
But even as a rookie, he showed us he was ready for the NBA. There are growing pains, but also moments where his potential is evident.
Perhaps that 30 point, 16 rebound game against the Dallas Mavericks to start this year got us a little too excited. In 14 games Turner scored 20 or more points, but the closest he came to breaking 30 was a 26 point night against the New Orleans Pelicans.
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More is expected out of Turner, as it should be, but there were some unrealistic expectations from fans for Myles in his second season as a pro.
Before the season began, we looked at FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projections for Turner when asking what sort of jump to expect in his second year. Some of the comparisons for Turner weren’t flattering (Sorry, Yi Jianlian), but there also were a few names that you wouldn’t mind to hear him compared to. If Turner’s career arc mimics Shawn Kemp, Chris Bosh, or Al Jefferson, then Indiana picked the right man with the 11th pick two years ago.
So how did Turner’s second season stack up to some of the second season’s of those players he was compared to?
Myles Turner is actually pretty damn good
Out of the top 10 players he was comparable to, I picked Jefferson, Bosh, Kemp, Spencer Hawes, and Derrick Favors to see how he measured up. They all had roughly similar rookie seasons (at least by some of the per 100 possessions), but they started to diverge more noticeably in their second season.
Using the per 100 possessions stats — that way it matters less if they were starters or not — you can see Turner is the most accurate shooter of the group. Turner leads in blocks by a significant margin and is slightly above the average in points scored. It should be noted he is the weakest rebounder of the group.
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Myles Turner | 2016-17 | 20 | 8.7 | 17.1 | .510 | 0.8 | 2.3 | .345 | 8.0 | 14.9 | .536 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 23.1 |
| 2 | Shawn Kemp | 1990-91 | 21 | 9.4 | 18.6 | .508 | 0.0 | 0.2 | .167 | 9.4 | 18.3 | .513 | 13.9 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 24.8 |
| 3 | Chris Bosh | 2004-05 | 20 | 8.1 | 17.3 | .471 | 0.1 | 0.2 | .300 | 8.1 | 17.1 | .472 | 12.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 23.4 |
| 4 | Al Jefferson | 2005-06 | 21 | 9.3 | 18.6 | .499 | 0.0 | 0.2 | .000 | 9.3 | 18.4 | .504 | 14.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 8.1 | 22.8 |
| 5 | Derrick Favors | 2011-12 | 20 | 8.5 | 17.0 | .499 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 17.0 | .499 | 16.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 21.7 | |
| 6 | Spencer Hawes | 2008-09 | 20 | 8.4 | 18.0 | .466 | 0.9 | 2.6 | .348 | 7.5 | 15.4 | .486 | 12.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 19.8 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/26/2017.
Those rebounding struggles show up in the advanced statistics as well, but we also see Turner has the best offensive and defensive box plus-minus scores of the group. As highlighted in the chart below, his PER is the highest of the group as well.
While Turner doesn’t rebound well, his ability to clog the lane and block shots already is exceptionally good. In terms of blocks for a game, Turner only trailed Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis this season. That’s damn good company to keep.
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | PER ▼ | TS% | FTr | TRB% | AST% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | OBPM | DBPM | BPM | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Myles Turner | 2016-17 | 20 | 18.4 | .585 | .348 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 19.6 | -0.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| 2 | Shawn Kemp | 1990-91 | 21 | 17.6 | .551 | .480 | 16.6 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 15.5 | 22.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| 3 | Chris Bosh | 2004-05 | 20 | 17.5 | .547 | .539 | 13.5 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 13.1 | 21.7 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 4 | Derrick Favors | 2011-12 | 20 | 17.1 | .537 | .436 | 17.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 16.3 | 20.7 | -1.3 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | Al Jefferson | 2005-06 | 21 | 16.2 | .530 | .354 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12.4 | 21.6 | -2.6 | -0.4 | -3.1 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Spencer Hawes | 2008-09 | 20 | 13.0 | .509 | .170 | 14.2 | 11.3 | 3.1 | 15.7 | 20.2 | -2.4 | 0.2 | -2.1 | -0.1 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/29/2017.
The point being made here is there is little reason to fear that something’s wrong with Turner’s development. Matching the statistic of other players isn’t a perfect way to track this, but at the same time it tells us his growth as a player is normal and even better in some areas than a few All-Star talents.
We’ll get a better idea next season how Turner is developing as Kemp, Bosh, and Jefferson made significant jumps in their third year as a pro.
What’s next for Myles?
For now, Turner’s game appears closest to Bosh’s style. Myles is a better defender at this stage, and certainly much more of a shot blocker. Turner doesn’t have Bosh’s finesse yet, but that’s still something he can improve on in the years to come.
Writing for Vice Sports, Ian Levy saw shades of Bosh in him a year ago, but also of Joel Przybilla.
"Turner just celebrated his 20th birthday last week and a fractured thumb caused him to miss a good chunk of the beginning of the season, which means that he is just now getting his bearings and his legs. Turner is listed at just eight pounds heavier than Bosh, on a frame that is just as tall. He doesn’t have Bosh’s lightness or the ballroom-dance footwork, but few players do. On a macro scale, Turner moves well enough to imply that the full breadth of this modern skill set is within range; it’s not a stretch to imagine him hedging hard on pick-and-rolls or losing defenders on dives to the basket. It may just be a matter of time.But right now, Turner moves more like Joel Przybilla.Przybilla was never really healthy enough to fully inhabit his NBA potential. What manifested between his rehab stints amounted to suffocating rim defense from a seven-footer who moved just a little better than expected. Przybilla wasn’t quite Chris Andersen in the running/jumping/leaping departments, but he wasn’t Greg Ostertag either. He was long and knew how to use that length to compensate for any areas where his lower body was going to lose a foot race. You would never say that Joel Przybilla lumbered, which is impressive given how often that is the default setting for a man that large."
Turner can work on his lower body and overall body strength, as well as fix a few flaws in his game if he wants to reach his full potential.
One of those flaws is his tendency to stay in place when the ball is in the air. He has a bad habit of not boxing out and not moving once the shot goes up. That is more of a mental issue than anything else, but Turner’s shown off his basketball IQ before, he just needs to act on it.
The Pacers should also encourage him to shoot the ball quicker in certain situations as well. Too often Turner was looking for a pass when he was wide open near the top of the key and above the 3-point line. Unselfishness is good, but some selfishness here and there don’t hurt, either.
Next: 8p9s Live: The Offseason Is Here for the Indiana Pacers
No matter what happens with the team next, the Indiana Pacers need Myles Turner to reach his full potential. He is still a ways from it, but if history means anything, he is still on track to reach that goal. Don’t panic, the kid is alright.