Myles Turner Is the Key to Success for the Indiana Pacers

If Myles Turner breaks out this season, the Indiana Pacers could be headed to the Eastern Conference Finals.

If Myles Turner becomes the shot-blocking, DeMarcus Cousins-stopping, USA Select Team-impressing version of himself he has been this summer, then the Indiana Pacers might be in for a big 2016-17 campaign.

It is a big if, but a very important if, for the Pacers.

Looking at Indiana right now, you can’t assume that Turner is going to kill it this season. That’s not a slight or an insult. That’s just the reality of putting your NBA hopes on the shoulders of a 20-year-old center who averaged 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game last season.

The soon-to-be-second-year player has confidence in himself, though, as he gained it by squaring off with some of the United States’ best players this summer.

He talked to Basketball Insider’s Alex Kennedy yesterday about this summer and his rookie season. What stood out the most to me was Turner saying he felt like he held his own against Cousins in Las Vegas.

"Kennedy: When we talked back in April, you told me DeMarcus Cousins was the toughest center you had guarded. What’s it like being able to play with him and learn from him in this Team USA setting?Turner: “I feel like I really held my own this time. I definitely was a lot better guarding him this time than I was during the season when I played him (laughs). It was cool to see how he uses his body and uses his footwork to get around other people. I always see it on TV and see what he does, but to see it in person, it’s definitely one of a kind. But yeah, I definitely feel like I did a lot better this time.”"

Being able to handle one of the best centers’s in the league? Not bad, young fella.

Considering Cousins scored a total of 73 points in the two games the Sacramento Kings played the Pacers, that’s a major step in the right direction.

OK, big deal, Turner is feeling himself. That’s great, but …

Myles Turner has been playing on the @usabasketball Select team like he should be on the varsity team.
— Marc J. Spears (@MarcJSpears) July 20, 2016

Oh yeah, forgot, he’s not the only one who thinks he’s playing well. All of the hype coming out of his time with the Select Team makes you reconsider how good the Pacers might be any season.

Turner’s growth as a player is the key to where the Pacers ceiling is next season.

It is just a very big if.

Obviously, this season is going to be better than his rookie campaign, there is little doubt in that. Looking at him through Nate Silver — or at least FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO metric — Turner is expected to take a slight step ahead, naturally.

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But the question, again, is how far.

Looking at Turner’s CARMELO projections, they also have the performance of the 10 most comparable players and their seasons. I don’t think he’s going to be Yi Jianlian or Kosta Koufos, as he’s already proven himself better than them. But the question is what type of leap is he going to have?

Is it going to be a more pedestrian one like Spencer Hawes in 2008-09? That season Hawes was a point better but about the same rebounder as he became a starter. Turner can obviously do better since Hawes’ previous years were less impressive than Turner’s rookie.

What about Al Jefferson‘s 2005-06, when he became a double-double machine with the Boston Celtics? That certainly doesn’t sound crazy at all, especially if the stories out of Las Vegas are more than hype. Jefferson added 2 points and 1 rebound to his per 36 minutes stats, so that is a reasonable goal for Turner.

Hell, he’ll be learning from the man himself, so he should at least be making a similar jump.

A stretch goal for Myles might be trying to match the increases of Shawn Kemp in 1990-91, or even greater, Chris Bosh in 2004-05.

Kemp’s second season saw a mixed bag as far as his per-36 minutes stats were concerned, he added a point to his averages while losing a rebound. He also went from being a bench player to a starter (something similar to Turner), so maintaining similar numbers at that pace isn’t so bad when the level of difficulty increases.

That sort of season for Turner — one where his numbers don’t drastically increase but he’s taking on more responsibility — isn’t a bad outcome and, in fact, would be a very encouraging one for him.

But if he can do something similar to what Bosh did, adding 4 points and half a rebound more to his averages while shooting better and playing with more discipline, that would be something special.

He basically told Kennedy that he’s going for that Bosh-sized bounce.

"Kennedy: What are your expectations for next season – as a team and then also individually?Turner: “As a team, we want to finish top three in the East and I feel like we’re very capable of doing so. On paper, we’re very talented, but it’s about how we put stuff together. I do feel like the East will be a lot stronger next year with some of the moves that have been made in our conference, but I feel like we can go out there and get the job done and finish in the top three. That’s the goal, and then we want to go make a deep playoff run. And obviously, we’re all chasing rings and that’s a big goal of mine. I don’t see why we can’t do it next year. I know that ‘sounds good’ and anybody can just say that, but I’m a very confident player and with that confidence comes ambition. Individually, I feel like I can put up big numbers for this team and help in any way necessary. I’d like to see myself put up 15 to 20 points per game. That may seem like a long shot, but I feel like I’m very capable.”"

A kid who is basically a college junior, nearly averaging a double-double in the NBA while spreading the floor? That would be a phenomenal second season for Turner.

Of course, we’re just looking at some historical projects, not real life.

Turner could have a modest increase as he continues to learn the ropes in the NBA. Maybe his numbers aren’t staggering, but he gets better as he’s still years away from his prime as an NBA player.