The Myles Turner Quandary

Myles Turner’s 2017-18 campaign was expected to be his ascent to stardom, but it hasn’t happened. Instead, Pacers’ fans have been teased with flashes of brilliance mixed with injuries and head-scratching inconsistency.

While Indiana Pacers fans had vastly different expectations before the 2017-18 season dawned, there was at least one point of general consensus: Myles Turner was the future star of the Pacers.

And he still might be. He is one of the elite — if not the elite — shot blockers in the Association, after all. But, with more games behind the Pacers than ahead of them, it’s clear that Turner isn’t the Pacers’ Star (that’s Victor Oladipo), and he might not even be the Pacers best center (maybe Domantas Sabonis).

You don’t even need to unearth some deep sabermetric stat to see it, his production is down. He averaged 14.5 points a year ago and 13.9 this season. He shot 51.1% last season and 49% this one.

While he’s shooting more threes, he’s making less of them (34.8% versus 33.3%, both, while decent for a big man, are below the league average of about 36.2), and he’s grabbing nearly a rebound less a game than last year.

While the actual differences between the 2016-17 numbers and the 2017-18 ones are practically negligible, what’s most telling is that he hasn’t improved offensively. Oladipean statistical leaps are rare, but continued steady increases in production are not only uncommon but for a player like Turner is expected. And it has yet to happen.

Oladipean statistical leaps are rare, but continued steady increases in production are not only uncommon but for a player like Turner is expected.

Part of the reason, as to why the leap hasn’t happened yet, might not be his fault. His still growing and learning his game. Remember he’s just 21 and this would be his senior year in college, if he had played out his eligibility.

So seeing numbers ebb and flow shouldn’t be too surprising. Nor should it be surprising to see him struggle against an older Center’s physicality. Remember when Roy Hibbert became the most fearsome rim-protector in the league? LeBron James wouldn’t even challenge him at the rim.

Well it took Hibbert three to four full seasons before he reached that peak. Sometimes it just takes time to master your craft.

For example, his post game still has a long way to go. Like that time when he couldn’t capitalize when he tried to back down Mavericks’ rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr. He’s just not strong enough yet. If you can’t back down a point guard, you’re really going to struggle against Goliaths like the Thunder’s Steven Adams.

But, one doesn’t need to back down players in the post to be an effective post scorer. And here lies the biggest deficiency in Turner’s game and also something that would be a relatively quick adjustment.

Turner does not attempt enough shots at the rim.

56% of his shots come from 16 feet or further away from the basket, which is hunky-dory and all. And percentage-wise (43%) he shoots well from that range. There are several problems with this. First, watch this clip that represents the majority of the results that happen when Turner shoots from the midrange. Did you see how no one was in rebounding position for the Pacers?

Indiana isn’t the worst rebounding team in the league, but they are below average. A quick way to improve that is by having someone in a position to rebound when someone launches from downtown. If that someone launching from deep your center, you’re not setting yourself up for rebounding success.

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Second, When your center lingers around the perimeter, you’re negating most of his natural advantages. Dirk Nowitzki and Kristaps Porzingis aside, most tall players see the biggest benefit from their size the closer they are to the rim. This shouldn’t be a landmark brainbuster, it’s why tall guys over the history of basketball play closest to the basket. Turner’s bigger gift on offense is his size, not this mediocre three-point shooting, and that gift is rendered moot because he too often positions himself too far away from the basket.

Third, You’ll hear it said that centers go into the post less nowadays. And that is true, but even by today’s standards Turner doesn’t go into the post as much as top tier postmen.

Turner shoots 63% on field goals within 3 feet of the rim, however he only takes 26% of his shots at that distance. That’s his best shooting percentage by a mile and he doesn’t capitalize on it. By comparison, Sabonis takes 47.6% down low and has a much more consistent scoring output.

Maybe that’s not a fair comparison though. Let’s look at some All-Stars: Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Anthony Davis. All three are contemporaries of Turner, all three celebrated for their versatility, and all three shoot more in the post that Turner does.

Embiid makes 72.3% while taking 30.6% of his shots at the rim, Towns (72.6%/33.8%) and Davis (77.0%/37.3%), their attempts at the rim also boost their rebounds (per 36 minutes) over Turner as well, and it’s not close: Turner (8), Embiid (12.5), Towns (12.1), Davis (10.5).

If Turner takes more shots at the rim it will help make his scoring more consistent. Right now he’s had more games scoring under 10 points (8) than over 20 (7). Likewise, he’s had more games with 4 or fewer rebounds (7) than over 10 (4). Those are far from All-Star numbers. Turner should make at least 6 field goals (not attempt, make) a game at the basket at a minimum. But he doesn’t and it’s hurting the Pacers.

Next: 8p9s Roundtable: Surprises and disappointments

Going forward The Pacers are going to need a consistent second option. Turner’s the best candidate for that, and while his prime is still far off, taking his game inside more or rolls or otherwise will make him more productive and will help the Pacers in the long run.