The tiebreaker implications behind the most important game of the Pacers season
By Tony East
When looking ahead at playoff seedings, this Sixers game is the most important one of the Indiana Pacers season.
The Philadephia 76ers and the Indiana Pacers will battle in a matinee performance on Sunday at 3:30 PM EST. With just one month left of the season, this game is absolutely massive for both teams as they try to position themselves in the standings for the playoffs.
Currently, there is just 1 game separating these teams in the standings – both teams have played 66 games, and the Pacers have won 42 to the Sixers 41. Entering this game, however, the season series between the two squads favors Philly 2-1, who won the most recent matchup in January.
If the Sixers win on Sunday, two things will happen. One is that they will match the Pacers record this season. The other is that they will win the season series with Indiana 3-1, meaning they would own the playoff seeding tiebreaker.
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That is not an ideal situation for the Blue and Gold, as they have a tough schedule for the rest of the season. The 76ers schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk, but it is easier than the gauntlet the Paers have for the next 20 days.
Evening the season series with the Sixers is crucial for Indy. Finishing with the same (or better) record will be challenging, but getting the 3 seed should be the goal for the Pacers, and earning the tiebreaker over Philly is a big step in that process.
But you may be thinking “But Tony! If the Pacers win, the season series is tied 2-2! They won’t have clinched the tiebreaker!” Well, person who somehow knows my name, you would be correct. Indiana wouldn’t technically have the tiebreaker clinched by winning this game. Let’s look at the tiebreaker rules to see if Indy can get an advantage over Philly in some other way.
Here is the exact language listed out on ESPN.com.
“In the event two or more teams are tied in the standings, a series of tiebreakers are applied to determine which team receives the higher seeding.
Two-Team Tiebreaker:
1. Better record in head-to-head games
2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed”
Alright, let’s break it down 1 tiebreaker stipulation at a time.
As we have lead out above, if the Sixers win, they will be up 3-1 in the season series. Thus, they would win this stipulation. That would ensure them the playoff seeding tiebreaker. A Pacers win would even the season series at 2-2, which would move us to stipulation 2.
Neither team is leading their division currently, with the Sixers 6 games behind the Raptors and the Pacers 7 games behind the Bucks. In theory, this could matter, but if either team jumps their respective division’s leader, that would likely mean they played well enough to earn the higher seed anyway. It is overwhelmingly likely neither of these two teams wins their division, meaning we move to stipulation number 3.
The Indiana Pacers are in the Central division while the Philadelphia 76ers are in the Atlantic division. This stipulation is not applicable. On to number 4.
Finally! Something we can use to separate these teams if the season series ends 2-2. As it currently stands, the Sixers are 23-16 against the East while the Pacers are 29-14. You play 52 games versus your own conference, so Philly has 13 left and Indy has 9.
Should the Pacers win this game (which is a requirement for the tiebreaker stipulations to get this far anyway), they would be 30-14 and the Sixers would be 23-17. The Sixers would have a max of 35 Eastern Conference wins in that scenario, meaning the Pacers would have to win 5 out of their 8 other Eastern conference games to even up this tiebreaker. Both teams have some easy and hard games left against their own conference, so this could go either way. For thought process sake, let’s pretend that both team amazingly end up tied in this stipulation as well.
Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference.
Okay, so this tiebreaker could depend on who makes the playoffs. Let’s pretend that the current top 7 seeds are all going to make the playoffs (MIL, TOR, IND, PHI, BOS, DET, and BKN). The Pacers and Sixers have very close records against those similar teams, with the Pacers at 7-9 and the Sixers at 7-11.
And that is just right now! Technically, to be at this point in the thought exercise, the Pacers have to win against Philly, which is a ding on the Sixers and a boon for the Pacers.
As you can see, the teams have similar records against this crop of opponents. Interestingly, whoever gets the 8 seed could end up mattering here. Orlando or Charlotte getting the 8 seed benefits the Sixers while the Heat or Wizards getting the 8 seed benefits the Pacers (or at least doesn’t hurt them, which the other two teams do).
The Sixers have 8 more games against teams in that graphic, while the Pacers only have 7. Philly has a better chance to improve upon their record against these teams because of that extra game. However, we can only get to this tiebreaker scenario if the Pacers beat the Sixers. It’s a small uphill climb for Philly.
This one really could go either way. Games against these opponents are crucial for both squads the rest of the way. There are so many of these games left that it is impossible to predict who finishes with a better record. Let’s say they end up tied…
The Sixers are 18-9 against the Western Conference. The Pacers are 13-10. The Sixers can clinch this tiebreaker by winning all 5 of their remaining games against the West. They have a huge leg up in this stipulation, but it isn’t technically over and could end up a tie between the two teams. That would push us to the final tiebreaker.
The Pacers have outscored their opponents by 304 on the season. The Sixers have done so by 198. The Pacers have a big leg up here should the tiebreakers astoundingly get this far.
So that’s it! Clear as mud? The Pacers have a superior record against Eastern Conference opponents and in total point differential. The Sixers have a leg up against playoff opponents in the East (maybe, it depends who gets the 8 seed!) and in record against the Western Conference. Basically, it could go either way.
But it all depends on the Indiana Pacers winning this one game.
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All of these tiebreaker scenarios don’t matter if the Pacers lose. Then, the tiebreaker just goes to Philly, which is the opposite of ideal if you want the Blue and Gold to have the best chance of advancing in the postseason. The Indiana Pacers need to win. Hopefully, they can get it done on the road.