The Indiana Pacers have a multitude of expiring contracts heading into 2019. Expiring contracts inherently bring change, and often before the contracts actually get a chance to expire. The Pacers could very likely find themselves in several trade discussions. One player who could be in those discussions is Darren Collison.
Darren Collison has had a very slow start to the 2018-19 Indiana Pacers season. Even after perking up recently, he’s performing well below his career averages across the board: 3 fewer points per game, 4% worse shooting overall and from 3, 9% worse from the FT line, and his PER is down by 1.5. After flirting with 50/40/90 splits a season ago, sitting at 46/35/76 isn’t great.
Collison, a small point guard (6’0, 175 pounds), is in his age 31 season. This is around when many players who rely on athleticism (quickness, in DC’s case) start to decline. Given all this, it’s highly unlikely that Darren Collison is going to be a part of the Pacers future, which revolves around 22-year-olds Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis and 26-year-old Victor Oladipo.
Collison led the league in 3 point shooting last year but has never been a volume shooter. Between his height and his slow release, DC has to be very open to get off a good look. This is a real issue that rarely shows up on the stat sheet but becomes very obvious to fans that see him night in and night out.
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While he’s come on the past few games, the flaws in Collison’s game are only going to grow as he ages. Once he’s unable to turn the corner on the pick and roll, Collison’s viability as a starter is going to crater. He’s also an attractive contract, a reasonable 10 million that expires at the end of the season. A good shooter (and a better one on paper) and a steady hand at the point guard position on an expiring contract is a juicy asset to teams with title aspirations, however realistic.
The Pacers are good, and have been even without Victor Oladipo, but are still probably a part or two behind the upper echelon in the Eastern Conference of Toronto and Boston, and may even be behind the Philly/Milwaukee tier after the moves made by the two teams. The Pacers certainly shouldn’t blow it up, not by any means – but if they can get a potential asset for a guy who isn’t going to help next year’s team, they have to look at it.
The fact is, the Pacers have 2 point guards besides Collison that deserve playing time in Cory Joseph and Aaron Holiday. Both are younger, with Holiday impressing in his rookie season. Joseph is also a free agent at the end of the year but is only 27 and a much better bet to be back with the 2019-20 iteration of the Indiana Pacers. He’s also a defensive bulldog and somewhat worse 3 point shooter, but their percentages get closer every year. At this point, he’s probably a superior player to Collison, and I don’t think the drop-off from Collison to Holiday is all that much.
This isn’t just an article asking for change for change’s sake; I think there are 2 great targets who could be obtained for DC. The 2 of them would serve very different purposes, but both bring potential benefits.
Target 1: Markelle Fultz
Opinions are wildly (and understandably) divided on last year’s number 1 overall pick. Markelle Fultz was almost a consensus number 1 overall pick just last year, and his talent and athleticism are unquestionable. The real question lies in whether you believe the issue that has dogged him since coming into the league is mental, or physical.
He’s had a new and rare diagnosis of late, which would put him out for up to 2 months but would also indicate that his total inability to shoot was physical. If that’s the case, the Pacers should absolutely pounce if Philly is interested in Collison. They need another guard that can handle the ball and shoot to relieve their utterly atrocious spacing. The Sixers went all in by trading for Jimmy Butler, and it’s been announced that Fultz isn’t a part of their future. If improving their title odds this season is their goal, Darren Collison could definitely look to be a good fit. Fultz is definitely the better option if Oladipo is somehow out for the year, as that would severely limit the Pacers playoff potential. That’s the perfect time to take a risk on a younger player.
Target 2: Trevor Ariza
The Pacers want to attract free agents next year when they’ll have cap space to spend and holes to fill. Sometimes, that means you have to win more games or win a playoff series. Trevor Ariza is also on an expiring deal with the Phoenix Suns, who desperately need a point guard while also having a young wing who should be getting minutes that could be a part of the future.
Moving Ariza for Collison would likely be one of those few trades that improves both teams. The Suns aren’t good right now and aren’t going to be good this year regardless, but they want to win – signing Ariza certainly stands as proof of that. Collison would help them win far more than Trevor Ariza has so far. Ariza would be great for helping the Pacers make a playoff run, assuming Victor Oladipo is able to return at something close to 100%.
Whether making a play for the future or for the now, the Pacers can do better than just hanging on to Darren Collison. The players have a great rapport and spirit as is, and any trade can be wildly damaging to that and must be considered carefully. Kevin Pritchard has done an excellent job team building, and Pacers fans should trust him to continue to make the right moves. These look great to me, but KP has rarely failed to surprise. Regardless, I expect the Pacers to be active come this year’s trade deadline.