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Matthes’ Manifesto: Summer’s forecast around the NBA

By Jonathan Matthes

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - FEBRUARY 13: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder hug after the game on February 13, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images)
OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - FEBRUARY 13: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder hug after the game on February 13, 2018 at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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In this section, we’re going to blaze through the rest of the league which will give a (hopefully) more well-rounded view of what’s ahead in the summer.

The free agent class is not deep, the top stars: already having locations picked out (Kevin Durant and Golden State, Chris Paul and Houston, Paul George and likely Los Angeles), are coming off injury (DeMarcus Cousins) or LeBron James (who will take his talents anywhere he wants). The vast majority of the NBA will have employ the mid-level exception ($8.6M for a non-tax payer, $5.3M for a tax payer) to sign anyone.

Add this all together and there isn’t all that much money available for splurging.

Just because this won’t be a robust summer for free agency it doesn’t mean that player movement won’t occur. It will, expect a lot of trades, and maybe some seismic ones.

4 teams with money but lack direction

There are 4 teams that will have a ton of cap space this offseason and are not much of a threat to lavishly spend it on free agency, because they’re trying to “develop their young talent“. They would be salary dump candidates in trades where one team is desperately trying to move a bad contract. If Luol Deng (Lakers) or Ryan Anderson (Rockets) get moved, keep your eye on these four:  Hawks (draft picks: 3, 19, 30, 34), Bulls (7, 22), Magic (6, 35, 41) and Kings (2, 37).

9 teams with little wiggle room

On the flip side, there are 9 teams who couldn’t spend much money even if they wanted too. Though they took various paths to get to this point, all find themselves in bad spots. They are the Hornets (11, 55), Cavaliers (8), Pistons (42), Heat (no picks), Timberwolves (20, 48) Thunder (53, 57), Trail Blazers (24), Raptors (no picks), Wizards (15, 44).

  • Oklahoma City will be pushing the tax if Carmelo Anthony opts in, even if George opts out.
  • Portland and Charlotte are in really bad spots. The Hornets will be hard pressed to move anyone ($51.1M to Nic Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams), even moving Kemba Walker won’t provide them much relief because he’s on the final year of his contract. They might have to swap bad contracts with another team in an effort to shake things up. Portland’s in a similar boat ($39.3M tied up in Evan Turner, Mo Harkless and Meyers Leonard). In a display of terrible timing, the Blazers also have several key contributors entering free agency this offseason (Jusuf Nurkic, Ed Davis, Pat Connaughton and Shabazz Napier). If they don’t want to break up the Damian Lillard – C.J. McCollum duo, they’re going to be hard pressed to improve.
  • When If LeBron James leaves the Cavs, both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver should be gettable for a reasonable or discounted price. That might be the case even if James stays.
  • The Raptors are not expected to do much roster finagling. They just won 59 games, are two deep at every position, and have everyone save for Fred VanVleet under contract for next year. Changing coaches (promoting Nick Nurse) is drastic enough.

7 teams with cap space and ambitions

There are 7 teams that have cap space and the motivation to use it: Nets (29, 40, 45), Mavericks (5, 33, 54), Pacers (23, 50), Lakers (25, 47), 76ers (10, 26, 38, 39, 56, 60), Suns (1, 16, 31, 59), and Jazz (21, 52). The wildcards this offseason are the Suns, Mavericks and Clippers (12, 13). The Lakers are going to have all the headlines, but this trio all either have the space or can clear out enough to be a rare player in the free agent market.

Both the Rockets (46) and Warriors (28) technically have cap-space but once they resign obvious pieces, they’ll be well over the tax.

From perfection to hopelessness

The remaining 7 range from hopeless – the Knicks (9, 36) – to practically perfect – the Celtics (27).

  • The Pelicans (51) are stuck between two philosophies. Do they bring back Cousins after his injury, if so at what price? Or do they embrace the Anthony Davis-Nikola Mirotic frontcourt that delivered New Orleans a trip to the Western Semis? It’s a tough choice for the Pelicans.

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  • The Spurs (18, 49) desperately need to find a shooting guard who can stretch the floor. Portland’s McCollum or Washington’s Bradley Beal would both be tremendous fits on the Riverwalk, but the Spurs might not have the pieces needed to pull it off, that is, if they don’t make Kawhi Leonard available.
  • Both the Bucks (17) and Nuggets (14, 43, 58) need upgrades around star players to truly be successful. Milwaukee needs a real point guard (Eric Bledsoe just isn’t him) and consistent rim-protecting. Denver desperately needs a small forward and then depth behind that small forward. The Nuggets are loaded in the front court, but lacking in the back and on the wings.
  • Lastly, the Grizzlies (4, 32) are stuck between eras. They have $77.2M tied up in Conley, Marc Gasol and Chandler Parsons. Which might have made sense four years ago. Of those three, Gasol’s the only one with real trade value, and even he could just opt for free agency in 2019.

Next: Matthes' Manifesto: Realistic draft prospects

  • If you want to go navigate back to the beginning of Matthes’ Manifesto, click here.
  • To check out how the rest of the NBA affects the Pacers, click here.
  • To look at Indiana’s realistic targets in the draft, click here.
  • To see which guards they should target in trades, click here.
  • To see which forwards they should target in trades, click here.
  • To see which free agents they should target, click here.
  • For a modest proposal, click here.
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