Trevor Ariza has been a quality wing in the NBA for some time now. He is an excellent fit for the Pacers in free agency.
You hear the term “modern NBA” throw around a lot. It is most commonly brought up when discussing the value of having wings who can play defense well and shoot effectively from deep. If you look at the 2018 NBA finals happening right now, you can see that in action. The Warriors have wings that can defend adequately and shoot suitably. The Cavaliers don’t. There are other factors, sure, but the Warriors having multiple players who fit the archetype of the modern NBA is a huge part of what makes them so deadly.
The Pacers, on the other hand, only have this luxury in bits and pieces. Bojan Bogdanovic can stroke it, but he isn’t quality on defense. Lance Stephenson can match-up with anyone when he puts his mind to it, but he made only 28.9 percent of his three-pointers. Victor Oladipo is close to this player mold, but he is only 6’4 and is more of a guard than a wing.
You can never have too many wings who can defend and shoot, and the Pacers could be affirmative in their quest to improve by adding more of these players.
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Enter Trevor Ariza.
If you watched the Western Conference Finals, you saw what kind of player Trevor Ariza is. He’s decisive. He’s quick on D. He has long arms. He’s 6’8 and can guard any player on any area of the court. He’s exactly what the Pacers need.
On offense, Ariza’s stats don’t jump off the page at you. 11.7 points per game on 41.2/36.8/85.4 splits is just okay. But Ariza was still efficient this past season, posting a true shooting percentage of 56.7 percent, around the same number as Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. How is this possible? His three-point attempt rate was nuts, 71 percent of his shot attempts were from beyond the ark, 25 percent higher than any Pacer player from this past season.
Ariza knows his limitations and simply shoots the right shots for his skillset, basically a copy of the CJ Miles shooting archetype. Afer any action, you can find Ariza darting behind the three-point line and attempting to get open. Once he catches, his slightly above average touch from deep helps guide the ball in with a beautiful trajectory:
On catch and shoots, Ariza was deadly. He canned 39.4 percent of his catch and shoot three-pointers, nearly an identical percentage to Bogdanovic this past year.
Ariza is always quick with his offensive decision making, a skill that is not discussed frequently enough. Beyond burying his shots, he always keeps the ball moving by either passing, dribbling, or shooting the second he catches the ball.
The lack of hesitation he has when operating on offense ensures everything continues to flow in a successful way. Watch him immediately attack the space here without pausing and create an easy layup for Tarik Black:
Smart players will always have a place in the NBA, even if age catches up to them. Ariza has shown with his decision making and ability to make quick reads that he is cerebral. Even if his other skills take a step back, Trevor Ariza will have a spot in any teams rotation, which is encouraging for him going forward.
In terms of his more specific skills, he excels mightly as a spot-up guy. He ranked in the 73rd percentile on spot-ups, scoring 1.08 points per possession on these plays. Similar to his catch and shoot mastery, when Ariza finds a spot he likes and lets it fly, it is usually money.
In transition, his feel for the game shined through. He always filled his lane appropriately and found the space when the Rockets were on the break, and he finished in the 88.3 percentile on transition opportunities:
Many of his transition opportunities came on chances that he created himself:
And that play showcases the value Ariza could bring to the Pacers. His offensive pallet might not be broader than Bojan Bogdanovic’s. Heck, he might be slightly worse than Bojan on O. But the comparison on D isn’t even close. Ariza is a stud on that end of the floor, and it bleeds into his offensive effectiveness.
Trevor Ariza can shut down tons of players of all varieties, and he is excellent at the team defense concept. He can switch onto anybody and hold his own. Remember his aforementioned basketball IQ? It shines through on the defensive end too, as he is always in the right position and making the right play. You saw it in his transition offense clips. He makes things happen on both ends of the court by being an impactful defender.
His career-low Defensive Box Plus-Minus is .3. His career average is 1.3, the same number that All-defensive first team member Victor Oladipo reached this season. That’s his average. For reference, Bojan’s career high in this statistic is -1.9.
On a more team defense level, the Rockets posted a 104.3 defensive rating with Ariza on the court this season. That would have been the fourth-best defensive rating on the Pacers this past season, and basically a tie with Thaddeus Young for third.
Watch him on this possession go from shadowing Marcus Smart in the corner, to helping out on a Kyrie Irving drive, then pivoting to cover Al Horford in the post before flying out to contest the three-pointer. All in a span of about two seconds. He prevented the Celtics from getting any semblance of a good look:
Another thing Ariza was excellent this past season was blowing up opponents handoffs. When he was guarding a dribble handoff or similar action, Ariza ranked in the 94.8 percentile defensively, giving up a minuscule .58 points per possession.
Watch him scrap and claw his way into this Miami Heat DHO before getting his hand in the action and snatching the ball away:
Ariza can turn up the intensity when it matters most, too, and he has proven it year-after-year. This past postseason, he dropped his defensive rating to 102.9 and was an integral part of the Houston Rockets near upset of the Golden State Warriors.
In the past, he has proven it as well. Across his 14 NBA seasons, Ariza has been in the postseason for nine of them, including winning a title with the 2008-09′ Los Angeles Lakers. His average Defensive Box Plus-Minus in the postseason is an absurd 2.2, adding more ammo to the argument that he cranks up the intensity when it becomes all business. If you like using steals as a barometer of good defense, he led all players in the 2015-16 playoffs in steals per game at 2.6. His smarts and skills shined through when the stakes are high, and that should be a very attractive trait to the Pacers.
Next: Pacers Draft Options: Ohio State’s Keita Bates-Diop
Trevor Ariza will be a free agent, and with Houston reportedly angling for cap space to acquire Paul George or LeBron James, Ariza is likely going to be easy to pry away from his former team. Given the cap-strapped nature of this coming summer, getting Ariza on a one year overpay (in order to use cap space again next summer) or getting him on a cheap long-term deal (it will likely be his last contract) are both viable, and beneficial, options. Either way, given that he would keep the Pacers offense rolling as is while substantially improving the defense and the depth, Trevor Ariza would be a dang-near perfect fit in Indiana. The Pacers should pursue him.