Just because the Pacers can go big this offseason doesn’t mean they should
By Ben Gibson
The Indiana Pacers could chase free agents this summer with their cap space. But just because Kevin Pritchard can, does not mean he should.
The offseason is here, and there is plenty of reason for optimism for the Indiana Pacers. They can run back last year’s incredibly fun and likable team, or they can mix it up a bit this offseason.
It’s doubtful that Kevin Pritchard will stand pat and run back the exact same roster, but the real question is how much or how little he tinkers with the team.
While the excitement of new players, and perhaps All-Star talent, is intoxicating at times, it’s easy to forget how delicate putting together a roster is, much less making sure you don’t make a mistake that hinders the team for years.
Just because the Pacers have money and just because there are free agents doesn’t mean they have to make their move now.
"“A lot of thought will go into, do we go big-game fishing this summer and look to add a player and that will cause us to lose some of these players that got us here?” Pritchard ponders. “Or do we keep this core and this team together and maybe add a few peripheral pieces. Then, if we do that, we would actually have 50-to-70 million in cap space the following year.“I’m always telling Herb, everyone is playing poker and has their chips. There’s sometimes where you shove those chips in and say, ‘Let’s do it.’”"
Sometimes in poker, checking down is the right move, too.
Let’s look at what’s possible and who’s available before we get too deep down the rabbit hole.
What Kevin Pritchard and the Pacers have to work with
When Kevin Pritchard took over last summer it was clear he wanted this sort of flexibility if you look at how many of the deals were structured.
Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic proved they are worthy of starting or at worst sixth man type of minutes. Their deals gave Indiana — or any other team that might trade for them — the ability to cut them for a minimal cost. They’re also both going into the last year of their two-year deals, so their expiring contracts hold that appeal as well. They’re talented, but their contracts aren’t an issue if their play declines.
Taking a conservative guess at what Pritchard will do this offseason, Indiana could free up $12.2 million to use in free agency. That would require waiving Al Jefferson, but unfortunately, he isn’t worth $10 million a year anymore.
And that’s on the low end. If Pritchard decided they could upgrade Collison or Bogdanovic, another $9 million (each) could be freed up for the right player.
Oh, the possibilities.
But do any of those players make sense for Indiana?
The options on the market are limited
Are there big names on the market? Yes and no. While names like LeBron James and Kevin Durant lead the way, they aren’t coming to Indiana. Both may only be free agents as far as their contracts coming to a close, anyway.
There are other players like Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle that are younger replacements for aging starts like Thaddeus Young, but they bring as many questions as they do answers for Indiana. Thad may be pushing 30, but with his style of play, there is little reason to think he doesn’t have a few more starting seasons in him. The Pacers know Thad works, but would Gordon or Randle?
They are likely to come at a high cost, too. Grabbing either would force Indiana to trade Young or jettison Darren Collison or Bojan Bogdanovic, which creates the need for another move.
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None of that is to say Indiana should stand pat just for the sake of stability, but there are few players that seem likely to sign with Indiana that also represents a significant upgrade at a given position. The market is flush with bigs, but that isn’t Indiana’s biggest need by a long shot. The list of realistic swingmen isn’t exactly exciting, either.
Indiana might want to try their luck with unproven players like Elfrid Payton, but there simply aren’t a ton of options for the Pacers that are anything close to sure-fire improvements.
If Indiana makes any big moves this summer, my guess is they would come via trade. Maybe Kawhi Leonard wants to leave San Antonio — or not — but predicting how Indiana would even try to acquire him and his player option for 2019-20 is a Sisyphean task for now.
Don’t make a move just for the sake of it
If Kevin Pritchard sees a real opportunity to improve the team, that’s a risk worth taking. But going back to his poker metaphor, you don’t have to make a bet just because you have the chips to do so.
Players like Bojan and Darren aren’t the long-term solution, but considering Indiana is a relatively young team, running back the same roster — and waiting to make a move next summer — isn’t a bad idea. If the core group stays intact, the on-court chemistry is only going to get better.
Maybe if the Indiana Pacers wait for next summer to make their big move, they might just find themselves with a better hand to play.
Next: 2017-18 Pacers Player Season Reviews: Joe Young
That’s a lot less exciting than adding a shiny new player, but it might be the right move. Pritchard knows what’s in the Pacers hand and has a good guess at what’s in the deck. Indiana shouldn’t chase a big hand if the odds are against them.