It’s a balancing act for the Indiana Pacers as the trade deadline nears

With the NBA’s trade deadline nearing, it is time to wonder whether the Indiana Pacers should make a move. This season’s play and their cap situation moving forward could have an effect on that decision.

Last summer, almost no one expected the Indiana Pacers to be competitive in the 2017-18 season. It was supposed to be a year of growth, letting Victor Oladipo become a No. 1 scoring option again, grooming Myles Turner into becoming “the guy,” and seeing what they had in Domantas Sabonis and Glenn Robinson III.

Instead, the Pacers are six games over .500 and the Eastern Conference’s sixth seed.

Indiana has overachieved, and often times the front office of an overachiever will hold things together until the team settles to what it actually is. The 2015-16 Portland Trail Blazers, for example, finished with 44 wins and the fifth seed in the West. Some predicted for that team to finish as a lock for the lottery.

After losing 4-1 in the semifinals to Golden State, Portland chose to hold things together instead of acknowledging the writing on the wall: this team isn’t good enough. With the cap spike in the summer of 2016, general manager Neil Olshey was encouraged to hand out some bad deals — and that he did.

The two major anchors were Evan Turner0 and Allen Crabbe. Crabbe signed a four-year, $75 million ($18.75 million annually) offer sheet with Brooklyn. Portland matched. The Blazers then gave Turner a four-year, $70 million deal, which equates to $17.5 million annually.

The icing on the cake was Meyers Leonard, who locked up a four-year, $41 million deal ($10.25 million annually). Portland now had a good chunk of their cap invested in role players. They were headed for a hefty luxury tax bill for a team that, at best, would lose in the second round of the playoffs.

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An example from last summer is the Miami Heat. After an 11-30 start, it seemed as though Miami was going to tank hard to nab one of those juicy top five picks in the draft. Instead, the Heat won 30 of their remaining 41 games and just missed out on the playoffs thanks to a tiebreaker with the Bulls.

Miami had built their roster for the summer of 2017, with tons of cap space to chase big fish in free agency. After missing out on Blake Griffin and Gordon Hayward, Miami decided to burn all of its cap space and run it back with last year’s team — re-signing Dion Waiters and James Johnson. Both deals were four years, and the duo will make at least a combined $25 million in all four years.

The Heat also gave Kelly Olynyk a four-year, $45.6 million deal–which is $11.4 million annually.

Miami is just two games back from the East’s third seed, but this team will never be the 30-11 team it was in the second half of last season again.

The NBA has had overachievers stick together the past two seasons, and Indiana very well could be the team to do it this year.

That is more of a summer worry, though, and the team’s action at the trade deadline could give us insight into the mindset of the front office.

On a recent Fox Sports Indiana pregame broadcast, first-year general manager Chad Buchanan said the team would not “sacrifice long-term sustainability for a short-term run.” Buchanan went on to say Indiana wanted to build a sustainable roster around Victor Oladipo that could last for the next 3-to-7 years.

Based on Buchanan’s comments, it seems unlikely for a Kemba Walker deal to be made. The Charlotte Hornets said Walker could be had in a trade, but only if one of their many bad, long-term contracts came along with him.

Walker makes just $12 million this year and next but will become a free agent in the summer of 2019. He will be due for a big deal as he has become an All-Star-level talent in recent years. That along with the weight of a Marvin Williams, Nicolas Batum or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist contract just really doesn’t scream “long-term sustainability.”

Buchanan mentioned how great this team’s chemistry is and how much fun they are to be around, but also that they “want to do what’s right for this team long-term.” That is essentially Buchanan saying they will make a trade should it benefit the team in the long run.

From the start, this roster was meant to be taken apart. The second-year non-guarantees on Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic’s deals are attractive to teams trying to shed money beyond this year and clear cap space for this summer. The same goes for Al Jefferson, who has a non-guarantee next season— though he is obviously not as valuable a player as Collison or Bogdanovic.

When talking trades, those three would likely be the ones to go if a deal is made. There have already been rumors surrounding Collison, as the Denver Nuggets are in need of a veteran point guard.