Is the Indiana Pacers Improved Defense Just a Mirage?

The Indiana Pacers defense is showing signs of improvement, but let’s pump the brakes on declaring that the problems are fixed.

The cliché goes ‘numbers never lie’, but in the case of the Indiana Pacers defense, they deserve extra scrutiny.

The Pacers were near the bottom of the barrel defensively to start this season, with the 3rd worst defensive rating in the NBA as of November 7th. In the first seven games, the Pacers were allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions.

In the six games since Indiana turned into a top five defense, somehow. Of course, it is a small sample size, but the Pacers are sporting a 99.8 defensive rating in that stretch.

However, there is a bit of a catch to this or at least a reason to treat the numbers with a heavy dose of skepticism.

A closer look at the numbers

If you look at the season before the grind that was the win over the Orlando Magic and the win over the LeBron-less Cleveland Cavaliers, the defense was still in the bottom of the league.

While the win against the Magic is an outlier — they posted a 71.3 defensive rating in that game — the Pacers got better in those last six games at slowing down opposing offenses compared to the rest of the season. But again, there are reasons for concern.

In the pair of games against the Philadelphia 76ers — the league’s worst offense — the Pacers allowed their opponent fewer points than they usually do, but it was still nearly 10 more points for the 76ers offense than their average.

On the other end of the spectrum, Boston’s offense is ranked 7th in the NBA in offensive rating, and they did better than their usual average when they faced the Pacers. It isn’t as if the Pacers were slowing either team down.

The last three games — including the loss to the Phoenix Suns — all had injuries or other circumstances that make it hard to look at them in the same light as the rest of the season. The Pacers played terrible defense against the Suns, but in their defense (pun intended), they were without Paul George or C.J. Miles, and Rodney Stuckey was on a minutes restriction.

The numbers may look better, but they could very well be fool’s gold.

Making changes to the defense

However, now that the bad news is out-of-the-way, we can focus on the positive things the Pacers are doing now, and how that could help their defense going forward.

Along with the team starting to trust each other more, coach Nate McMillan said the team isn’t switching as much as they were in the first seven games.

In the blowout loss to the Charlotte Hornets earlier this season, the Pacers struggled on their switches and often left shooters open either due to confusion or making tactical errors like not fighting enough on screens.

Though some of this might have been the secondary defender (Myles Turner in the second two plays) deciding not to give up the easy basket to the roll man by showing too high, it was a flaw in the Indiana defense that was exploited .

But since then, as McMillan mentioned, they’ve switched less on picks.

In the game against Cleveland, it paid dividends with one of their best defensive outings, even if LeBron James and J.R. Smith weren’t playing.

The first play in this series from the Cavaliers game is the best example. Instead of Thaddeus Young switching, he shows and recovers on Kevin Love. The play ultimately results in a turnover, but the Pacers are making sure to avoid as many bad matchups and relying on their players to recover.

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Instead of Thaddeus Young switching, he shows and recovers on Kevin Love. The play ultimately results in a turnover, but the Pacers are making sure to avoid as many bad matchups and relying on their players to recover. They are more exposed to passes over the top this way, but it makes them less susceptible to the pick and roll.

This second two clips in the series are a bit messier, but the idea is the same. Myles Turner and Lavoy Allen show before recovering back.

In the final clip, we see how Turner isn’t worried as much about getting out on the ball-handler as much as his concern is protecting the rim. With the drive coming right at him, his hand is forced but he is able to play solid defense. It doesn’t help that Teague gets caught up by the Chris Andersen pick, but Turner’s priority is less about guarding the ball-handler in space as much as it is protecting the rim, no matter who that may be.

On other plays in the game, it looks like the same story: Show, recover, but protect the rim.

For what it is worth, the Pacers are cutting down on the percentage of points scored on drives in the last six games compared to earlier in the season, as well as forcing more turnovers.

There are still concerns with the fact the Pacers guards are only above average (and Monta Ellis is terrible) covering the pick and roll, with the exception of C.J. Miles. On the plus side, the Pacers starting bigs are well above average covering the roll man.

While the Pacers defense improved, the recent games give us reasons — such as the Pacers injuries as well as their opponents — to pause before we assume that Indiana solved its defensive struggles.

Next: The Indiana Pacers Are Banged Up in Midst of Tough Schedule

To the Pacers credit, they made changes to how they play defense, but we need to wait before assuming things are fixed. It is very doubtful they can remain as high up in the rankings as they are in the past few games, but trying to figure out if they can at least be average will require waiting a little longer.