Indiana Pacers: How did pre-season RAPTOR projections pan out?

Especially for the Indiana Pacers, advanced stat projections aren’t always true

The Indiana Pacers haven’t exactly exceeded expectations this year.

Prior to each NBA season, FiveThirtyEight releases an updated metric which can be used to project the upcoming years for each NBA player and give fans an idea of which teams and players will perform at the highest levels.

Their metric for this year released prior to the season and was called RAPTOR, an ode to the defending champions.

With the hiatus upon us, it’s a good time to take a look at RAPTOR projections and see where FiveThirtyEight’s metric got things wrong and where it got things right with this year’s Pacers.

Using FiveThirtyEight’s player wins above replacement projections and calculated WAR (wins above replacement) that relies on RAPTOR, let’s see how things panned out.

Before we begin, we must note that the metric might not be all that friendly to the Pacers. From FiveThirtyEight’s explanation of RAPTOR:

"RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. For more detail on past RAPTORs, including the breakdown of box and on-off components, you can download files that list the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s appearances over the course of the entire season into one file."

The Pacers, being an unconventional team in that they operate at a slow pace with a low volume of 3-pointers, don’t necessarily fit into the NBA’s current “mold” and therefore, catch-all metrics like RAPTOR might not always be the most useful ways of projecting player or determining success of each individual player.

Metrics like this can view Indiana, and therefore, its players, as an outlier, potentially inflating or deflating metrics to a tune that doesn’t hold true with reality. A mix of educated eye-test and advanced statistics is usually the healthiest way to measure success.

Pacers players who didn’t meet expectations

Victor Oladipo (Projected: 6.9 | Actual: 0.8 | Difference: -6.1)

We won’t spend much time here. Victor Oladipo had a rough hand dealt to him this year, recovering for the first several months of the season from his injury last January.

All his playing time was spent getting back in the swing of the NBA pace and learning his new teammate’s tendencies. Even his teammates from last season were at different levels this year than they were last year.

By the time Oladipo was displaying some level of comfortability, the season would be suspended.

Jeremy Lamb (Projected: 4.7 | Actual: 2.4 | Difference: -2.3)

Jeremy Lamb took a major step back this year in terms of total output. His season was cut short when he went down with a torn ACL in early 2020.

Malcolm Brogdon (Projected: 4.9 | Actual: 2.9 | Difference: -2.0)

Malcolm Brogdon took a huge step back from his 50/40/90 season this year in large part due to a fresh shot profile and a more direct role in the Pacers offense.

It remains to be seen if he’ll be able to sink the more difficult shots next year, but this year was certainly a down year for him.

Still, Brogdon ranked top-five in WAR on the Pacers this year despite falling well short of RAPTOR’s projection for him.

Myles Turner (Projected: 3.8 | Actual: 1.8 | Difference: -2.0)

Myles Turner struggled to maintain his level of play while inviting Domantas Sabonis into the starting lineup alongside him. Turner’s points and rebounds per game both went down this season.

Turner was asked to adjust his offensive game quite a bit with Sabonis in the starting lineup, shooting 44.3 percent of his field goal attempts beyond the arc compared to 25.1 percent last year.

Pacers players who were right on pace with projections

T.J. McConnell (Projected: 1.3 | Actual: 0.8 | Difference: -0.5)

T.J. McConnell was pretty much right in line with what RAPTOR projected of him this year. He brought a distinct energy and hustle to the second unit in his limited minutes.

RAPTOR projects McConnell will decline each year from here on out in his career.

Goga Bitadze (Projected: -0.3 | Actual: -0.5 | Difference: -0.2)

Goga Bitadze didn’t get much playing time, and when he did it was mostly in garbage minutes. We have to take his WAR and stats in general this year with a grain of salt.

T.J. Warren (Projected: 2.3 | Actual: 3.2 | Difference: 0.9)

T.J. Warren was a major asset to the Pacers this year, arguably one of the most consistent players on the roster on both ends of the floor.

One of the things that may be holding back his gain over the projection is his amount of 3-pointers attempted and how RAPTOR values those shots.

Warren attempted nearly 30 percent of his shots beyond the arc last season, and only about 20 percent this year, trading a high-volume shot from range for a more balanced and lethal shot profile.

Pacers players who exceeded preseason projections

Aaron Holiday (Projected: 2.0 | Actual: 3.0 | Difference: 1.0)

Aaron Holiday has been quite good this year, and it’s exciting to think about the leap he could take next season.

He elevated his 5.9 points and 1.7 assists last season to 9.4 and 2.3 per game this year. Nearly hitting 40 percent of his 3-point shots this year, he looks like he could be one of the most lethal parts of the offense.

Perhaps his most marketable attribute right now might be convincing Justin Holiday to re-sign with the team this summer, though.

Domantas Sabonis (Projected: 3.5 | Actual: 4.6 | Difference: 1.1)

Domantas Sabonis has had an incredible year. After signing an extension just before the start of the season, he’s become the team’s MVP and kept the offense afloat. He was the sole All-Star out of Indiana and has flashed the ability to be an offensive center point in the near future with 5.0 assists per game.

RAPTOR projected he’d have a good year, but not this good.

Doug McDermott (Projected: 0.1 | Actual: 1.5 | Difference: 1.4)

Doug McDermott was absolutely disrespected by his projection prior to the season. As one of the team’s only consistent outside offensive weapons, McDermott has established himself as a valuable piece of the team despite defensive inability.

Hitting just a shade below 45 percent of his 4.3 3-point attempts per game this year, the Pacers should look to get him more involved next season.

Justin Holiday (Projected: 2.1 | Actual: 4.5 | Difference: 2.4)

Justin Holiday has been well beyond what NBA analysts thought he might be this season. More than doubling RAPTOR’s WAR projection for him, he has used his length to impact the game on both ends and shown how his versatility can be so valuable.

The Pacers need to re-sign this man.

Here’s the order in which these Pacers players ranked in terms of WAR this year:

1. Domantas Sabonis (4.6)
2. Justin Holiday (4.5)
3. T.J. Warren (3.2)
4. Aaron Holiday (3.0)
5. Malcolm Brogdon (2.9)
6. Jeremy Lamb (2.4)
7. Myles Turner (1.8)
8. Doug McDermott (1.5)
9. T.J. McConnell (0.8)
10. Victor Oladipio (0.8)