Myles Turner will be third-best player on Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers have an extremely talented and well-rounded roster, perhaps one of the most balanced rosters in the Eastern Conference. They have a solid starting lineup and a decent second unit that is made even better by Domantas Sabonis spending a good amount of minutes playing with the bench crew.

Victor Oladipo, when healthy, is clearly the team’s best player. The former Most Improved Player of the Year was having an 18.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists per game season before injuring his quad in 2019.

Domantas Sabonis has taken a major leap this season, and is clearly the team’s MVP this  season. Sabonis averages18.5 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game, good enough to get him selected to his first All-Star game of his career.

Sabonis and Oladipo are one and two. It remains to be seen in what order because we haven’t seen the new-look Sabonis and a healthy Oladipo take the floor at the same time.

Which player is the third-best on the team, though? And how do they factor into the team’s success?

It’s a difficult question to answer because so much of it is theoretical. We can’t completely accurately select a third-best player until we see Oladipo play with this player and Sabonis. The true proof of them being third-best is the outcome of their skillset when blended with Oladipo and Sabonis.

T.J. Warren, who has been one of the team’s most impactful players this year, makes a compelling case. He’s rolled out a solid defense and an extremely complete offensive game this season.

Malcolm Brogdon figures to be one who can step up to the third-best player title once Oladipo comes back and takes some of the load off his shoulders, but this year his numbers have taken quite the dip.

While it may be a selection many disagree with, I believe the team’s third-best player is frontcourt the running-mate with Sabonis — Myles Turner.

This is a selection that is understandably disagreeable. Turner’s per-36 statistics this season are at career lows in points, and rebounds. His field goal percentage and 3-point shooting both took a step back in accuracy this year. At times, it’s really looked like he’s struggling to figure out how to mesh with Sabonis alongside him in the frontcourt.

That’s because he has been struggling, but struggling is a part of the acclimation process. Turner, once the focal point of the Pacers frontcourt, is having to adjust with another All-Star caliber player alongside him for many minutes per game.

And again, we have to consider how the additive value of the third-best player lifts the profile of Oladipo and Sabonis.

For Sabonis, Turner shows the potential of being a frontcourt decoy that can stretch the floor and provide more space on the interior for Sabonis to work. In a recent look into the duos best month this year (December) I determined that there has been a positive correlation between Turner’s 3-point attempts and the net-rating of the Turbonis frontcourt. So long as the Pacers and Turner are willing to let him shoot the three (regardless of if it is falling) it will enable Sabonis to go to work on offense.

For Oladipo, Turner can be a lethal screen setter with the potential to pick-and-pop or pick-and-roll.

Last season, Turner and Oladipo had a net rating of 6.0.

Sabonis is a legitimate defensive force. According to Second Spectrum, opponents shoot over 2 percent worse when Turner is guarding them, 10.8 percent worse when within 6 feet of the basket. Of players that see at least five defensive field goal attempts within 6 feet, Turner has the ninth-best percentage differential.

This stat is incredible, but misleading in a way that favors Turner. It doesn’t account for shots that Turner has dissuaded because of his imposing presence before they happened, opponents opting to dribble out or pass to a teammate instead. Having established himself as a proficient rim protector, there are plenty of these instances per game.

Turner provides the Pacers a legitimate defensive anchor that helps them post the seventh-best defensive rating in the NBA. Within five feet of the hoop, the Pacers post the fourth-best opponent field goal percentage.

The trio has seen limited time on the floor together. Last season, Sabonis, Oladipo, and Turner played just 126 minutes together, but the results were encouraging. They posted an offensive rating of 108.0, an outstanding defensive rating of 93.6, for a net rating of 14.4.

A case can be made for Warren or Brogdon. Their ascension this season has been admirable and encouraging, and they will be extremely useful pieces for the Pacers and their future.

Once Oladipo comes back in full force, though, I see both of them taking on more ancillary roles in the Pacers system. Turner’s impact will be elevated and accentuate once Oladipo is all the way back.

Myles Turner will be the team’s third-best player when all three are healthy.