All this week, we’ll be featuring each of the starters during the first half of the season, and making the case for who can be the alpha dog offensively in Victor Oladipo’s absence. First up is Malcolm Brogdon.
The Pacers can expect Victor Oladipo back from injury after 25-40 games this upcoming season. In that time, someone will need to step up and lead the team in scoring. Who will that be? Let’s take a look and see if new addition Malcolm “The President” Brogdon can be that guy.
Brogdon played his first three seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks and has averaged 12.8 points per game for his career, with his scoring average increasing each year he’s been in the league. Last season he averaged 15.6 points per game on 50/40/90 shooting splits, an excellent and effiicent season by any measure.
He was normally the third or fourth option on offense behind Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, but was sometimes the second best player on the court. Most of his scoring came from drives or catch and shoot 3’s with the occasional mid-range pull-up and a few free throws.
He only attempted 11.7 shots per game, with 3.8 three point attempts and just over two free throw attempts. He shot great percentages, sure, but that’s a pretty low volume to begin with. He also only averaged 28.6 minutes per game, lower than what he’ll most likely play on the Pacers. He made his impact felt in other ways, but this article is only focusing on how he could function as the primary scoring threat until Victor gets back.
For the sake of this piece, let’s assume Brogdon plays about 33 minutes per game until Victor gets back, a reasonable (if a little short) assumption. He has never shown a tendency to put up a ton of shots (never having attempted more than 18 shots in a game in his whole career). The first major hurdle would be getting over this tendency. Without Oladipo, there are going to be a lot of shots to go around, so Brogdon would have to step up and be willing to take these shots in the first place.
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It stands to reason that he would still shoot good percentages, but with an increase in volume comes a predictable decrease in efficiency. This is without mentioning that teams could just put their best defensive guard or wing on him without Victor on the court. Brogdon has never been a big pull-up shooter, nor is he particularly good at hitting contested shots. While players like Oladipo can pull up in the face of a good defender, Malcolm probably wouldn’t. To be an effective first option in the league today, taking and hitting contested shots is a must.
Where he might be able to pile up points is through drives. He has a nice array of moves at the basket and good body control. He can’t always beat his man off the dribble 1-on-1 but with a solid screen, he could find some open lanes. As the primary scoring option, he would drive more and get fouled more often, adding up a lot of points if he continued to shoot over 90% from the line.
The issue here would be spacing. The Pacers already want to play with the twin towers of Turner and Sabonis, so Brogdon driving the lane over and over creates some issues. Taking the ball out of his hands allows him to use his high IQ to find openings on the perimeter and cuts to the basket, but also takes away his driving threat.
To put it simply, could Malcolm Brogdon lead the Pacers in scoring with Oladipo out? Maybe…. but probably not. It would be asking him to attempt around 18-22 shots a game and at least double his 3 point attempts per game, two things he has never shown a tendency for. He is a great, efficient shooter, but would probably lose some of that efficiency if called upon to take tougher, more contested shots.
Even more than that, I don’t believe Brogdon even should be the the leading scorer. His game and skill set works much better as a 2nd or 3rd option. He can’t always create for himself, he doesn’t shoot high percentages while contested, and his primary scoring threat (driving) would mess with the spacing on the floor. Where he thrives is catch and shoot 3’s and as a secondary threat to drive and finish or kick. He is absolutely the right player for the Pacers, but mostly with Oladipo back in the lineup.
I believe he could be a great floor general, and could still increase his scoring averages, but as for leading the team in scoring, maybe not. That responsibility would be better given to someone else. Whoever that person is, I’m sure Brogdon will make their life a lot easier.