Alternate History: What if the Pacers didn’t trade Kawhi Leonard in 2011?

With Paul George and Kawhi Leonard now teaming up, it’s hard not to ask: What could’ve happened if they were both on the Indiana Pacers?

Let’s shift away from the Indiana Pacers for a brief second and talk about some other teams and other sports. What if the Charlotte Hornets never traded Kobe Bryant? What if Dave Roberts didn’t successfully steal second in Game 4 of the 2004 American League Championship Series? What if, well, any team EXCEPT the New England Patriots decided to draft Tom Brady in the 2000 NFL Draft?

You get the point. When analyzing the history of sports, it’s easy to keep coming back to those “what if” scenarios. Sometimes thinking about these situations can plague the thoughts of miserable sports fans for decades. Frequently in sports, moments or decisions that seem minor at the time can haunt a franchise for years to come.

While this haunting misery is tough to endure, it is intriguing to think about how things could have turned out differently had a series of small moves not come to fruition.

A week ago at the Staples Center in sunny Los Angeles, the Clippers introduced Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to the franchise. After the Clippers sent shockwaves throughout the league by adding George and Leonard on the same night, the team has become a popular selection to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy next June.

"“Paul is a player I always wanted to play with. When I got drafted to the Pacers I’m like, ‘They’ve already got a two-way player.’ As our careers moved forward, seeing how he developed, seeing how I developed, I wonder if we’d have stayed in Indiana.”-Kawhi Leonard"

At Wednesday’s press conference, Kawhi Leonard said, “Paul is a player I always wanted to play with. When I got drafted to the Pacers I’m like, ‘They’ve already got a two-way player.’ As our careers moved forward, seeing how he developed, seeing how I developed, I wonder if we’d have stayed in Indiana.”

The roots of this story trace back to the 2011 NBA Draft. Featuring the likes of Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, and Kawhi Leonard, this draft is considered one of the best in recent memory.

The 2010-11 season was very much one to forget for Pacers fans. The Indiana Pacers compiled a 37-45 record which resulted in them getting the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Pacers lost in five games to the Derrick Rose-led Chicago Bulls. Dynamic wing Danny Granger was the Indiana Pacers’ leading scorer that season, followed by the likes of Darren Collison, Roy Hibbert, and Mike Dunleavy. Yeah, a lot changes in eight years.

Heading into the 2011 offseason, the Pacers were in a perplexing spot. While their 37-45 tally from the previous season wasn’t exactly striking fear into the rest of the league, the Pacers were coming off a playoff season with an exciting core of young talent.

Star Danny Granger was still only 28 and had established himself as one of the best scorers in the Eastern Conference. Darren Collison looked every bit like a talented young point guard that would develop into a solid starter in the league. Roy Hibbert was developing nicely as a young center and was turning himself into a defensive phenom. In addition to these three, wing Paul George showed plenty of flashes during his rookie campaign.

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In hindsight, it’s easy to see why former executive Larry Bird thought the team was a move or two away from becoming serious contenders in the Eastern Conference. Entering the draft, the Pacers held the 15th overall selection. With that choice, the Pacers drafted Kawhi Leonard out of San Diego State.

To add to what Bird envisioned as a playoff roster filled with young talent, Bird decided to trade Leonard in a prearranged deal to the San Antonio Spurs. In return, the Pacers received guard George Hill.

Yes, in a vacuum trading Kawhi Leonard for George Hill is one of the worst moves in NBA history. But it’s important to remember that absolutely no one ever dreamed Kawhi Leonard would turn into the player that he has become today.

Also, at the time, the Pacers probably thought they didn’t need a player like Leonard. Indiana’s best player was Danny Granger, and the team had already taken on a two-way wing project in Paul George in the previous draft. Instead of taking on another developmental project, the Pacers decided to give their backcourt a needed boost. Hill was a young, talented player that had already proven himself to be worthy of a substantial NBA role. Bird was hoping Hill would help give Indiana one of the best benches in the NBA.

Bird believed George Hill would play an integral role in transforming his 37 win team into a 50 win team and a real threat in the Eastern Conference. In a way, he did! Two years later, the Pacers won 49 games and came up one game shy of the NBA finals, and Hill was the third leading scorer on that team. More to come on this later.

At the time, proponents of the deal argued that a “sure thing” such as Hill was the best and smartest investment that the Pacers could make. Indiana didn’t have time for another project when they were trying to take that next step, right?

It’s unfortunate for George Hill that part of his legacy will always be being remembered as the player that was traded for Kawhi Leonard. Hill went hard for Indiana for five years, and played a huge role on the team that came a game away from making the 2013 NBA finals. However, it’s tough to ignore what could have been; the Pacers came agonizingly close to creating one of the best duos in NBA history. How would the future of the franchise been different had they held onto Leonard instead?

One of the more famous playoff series in recent memory came in 2013 when the Pacers and LeBron James-led Miami Heat battled it out for seven tough games. As exciting as this series was, it was equally surprising. While the Pacers compiled a respectable 49-win campaign during the 2012-13 season, the Heat looked unstoppable in the Eastern Conference led by LeBron James who was at the summit of his career.

However, the Pacers had an emerging star of their own in Paul George. Indiana had a perfect concoction of talent that was able to push Miami to their limits. Would a Pacers team featuring Kawhi Leonard have changed the outcome of this series?

Before taking a further glance at the above question, there are a few important notes to make regarding Kawhi Leonard as an NBA player in 2013. We’ve already established Kawhi was taken in the 2011 draft, so we’re currently looking at only the second year of his career. While he was without a doubt a quickly improving player and a budding star, he wasn’t the Kawhi Leonard of 2019.

Still, even by 2013, Kawhi had emerged as an elite defender. That alone would have made an enormous difference when tasked with the challenge of containing LeBron James at his peak. It is possible that even 2013 Kawhi would have been all the additional talent Indiana needed to beat Miami in the 2013 Eastern Conference finals.

Even if Kawhi wasn’t enough in 2013, the Pacers would have been set up beautifully for the future just because of the pairing of Kawhi and George. LeBron’s run with Miami ended after four successful years, and then he returned to Cleveland to team up with Kyrie Irving. These Cavalier teams were terrific in their own right, but an Indiana duo of Kawhi and George very well could have been just as strong if not better.

There are still skeptics that argue Kawhi wouldn’t have turned into the force he is today had he not first spent time with the San Antonio Spurs, an elite developmental organization. The trajectory of his career could have turned out entirely differently with Indiana.

While considering alternate history is a fun exercise, there are always so many other variables that go into any equation at hand. This alone makes it complicated to decisively come to any conclusive product regarding the question at hand.

Ultimately, the Pacers are yet to win an NBA championship. Until that day comes, fans are inevitably going to painfully wrestle with the thoughts of what could have been. George and Leonard have blossomed into two of the best players in the NBA. While it may be difficult, Pacer fans are always going to wonder how the history of their franchise could have been different had the team kept Kawhi.

It’s summer, and the frenzy of the NBA draft and free agency is mostly gone. This is the time where painful memories from the past return, sometimes more often than we’d like to admit. The trophy cabinet remains empty, basketball is still months away, and a team on the other side of the country is advertising the NBA’s toughest duo. A duo that seems destined to win multiple championships. A duo that could have been born eight years ago in Indiana. They may not like to admit it, but more than ever, these are the days where Pacers fans sit back and wonder: “what if?”