Matthes Manifesto III, Part II: A look at the rest of the NBA’s summer situations

Dallas Mavericks

Pick: 37 | Cap Space: $51.4M | Players under contract: 6-7

The Mavericks are one of the bloggersphere’s darlings, with Luka Doncic and all. They’re kind of like the West’s Atlanta Hawks in that way. Dallas always wants to fish for the big ones, and are normally rebuffed, but they do keep trying…one day. In the interim, the best course is probably to keep fostering their young talent — and hope Kristaps Porzingis comes back healthy and is facing any charges stemming from an allegation in New York.

If all things are on the level, Porzingis and Doncic would form an exciting eastern bloc one-two punch, and the Mavericks will continue being an exciting team. If they aren’t, that clearly takes precedent over anything basketball related. In any event, patience is not Mark Cuban’s strong suit, but Dallas’ player development has been strong in recent years. The Mavs are likely not ready for the playoff stage yet, anyway, trust the development and keep incrementally improving.

Denver Nuggets

Picks: none | Cap Space: -$12.1M | Players under contract: 11-12

No changes are coming to the Nuggets unless they’re trading for it (the exception being in the unlikely case that Paul Millsap opts out of the $30M owed him). But no change is really needed for Denver. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are only going to get better together with more experience. Millsap and Will Barton fill in the cracks in the starting lineup.

Their main bench players (Mason Plumlee, Torrey Craig, Monte Morris, Juan Hernangomez and the surprising Malik Beasley) are all effective and under contract for another year. They’ll have the full midlevel exception to add further depth to an already deep well, the Nuggets are going to be competitive for a while.

Golden State Warriors

Picks: 28, 58 | Cap Space: -$11.8M | Players under contract: 5-8

Defeat was not in the Warriors plans, especially not with there being a decent chance that Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson might not return next season. But the Warriors’ strength in numbers failed them in the playoffs, where Golden State’s depth issues were exposed via injuries.

The Warriors need to find a way to reboot that aspect of their roster. Durant might be gone, and Thompson too if he’s not offered a max contract. Golden State would do well to trust their excellent drafting to provide at least one supplemental piece. They’ll have to get creative with the rest.

Houston Rockets

Picks: none | Cap Space: -$14.6M | Players under contract: 6-10

The positive of paying a quartet of key contributors (James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and Eric Gordon) significant money ($105.7M) is that you have an excellent quartet of key players. It can drive a team to championship contention.

The negative is that you have no room of error. A team must hit on all role players, the key players must avoid injuries. Houston has straddled the extremes of this dance these last two seasons. Things went almost perfectly last season, but this year the Rockets were 12 wins worse after seeing a couple of role players leave.

And now it seems like the Rockets might cross the Rubicon. Do they move Paul or Gordon? What’s the cost to buy back into the draft and its resource to cheap labor? If they keep everyone, which veterans will accept the minimum to keep the Rockets humming? Paul is the main sticking point. He is due $124.1M over the next three seasons, all for a player who appeared to be slowing down next year. Miami and the Lakers might have an interest.

Regardless a sense of change seems to cling to the heavy air down in Houston.

Los Angeles Clippers

Picks: 48, 56 | Cap Space: $59.7M | Players under contract: 6-8

We talked about Brooklyn as one of the teams who could run the offseason, here’s the other. The Clippers have a ton of money to spend, have momentum, have Los Angeles, and have Jerry West helping to run the show. All check marks in their favor.

If they can succeed in trading Danilo Gallinari to someone else, Los Angeles could open up close to $80M in cap space, and that includes several of their tremendous role-players already on the roster (the likes of Montrezl Harrell, Landry Shamet and Lou Williams). They will be in the mix for every major free-agent: Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, if they want a meeting, they’ll get one.

The task before the Clippers is to deliver on this promising offseason, no small task, but they have the resources to come through.

Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: None | Cap Space: $41.8M | Players under contract: 7-8

Before the Anthony Davis trade, the Lakers were facing a rough summer, now there’s tangible hope. Davis, unlike LeBron, has a long term future as an NBA superstar. As great as James is, he’ll still be 35 next season and won’t start aging backward. Davis is a player that other stars can be assured that they’ll play with for the long term.

However, Davis’ agent has also made it clear that Davis will be testing the free agent waters after the season, so it’s possible that other star-level free agents will be hesitant not wanting to commit if Davis isn’t fully committed himself. Regardless, the Lakers are in a much better spot than they were a week ago.

Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: 2 | Cap Space: -$10.9M | Players under contract: 6-11

Memphis gave it a go last year, were strong out of the gate, floundered, traded away a franchise cornerstone, held back on trading away another, and were rewarded for their troubles with the second pick in this upcoming NBA Draft.

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The obvious move would be selecting Murray State point guard Ja Morant, making Lawrence North alum Mike Conley, in all likelihood, expendable. There might be a half dozen teams lining up to trade for Conley, one of the most underrated players in the NBA.

But that’s one piece of the puzzle, the rest of the roster will need some work, and tangible relief from some of their worst contracts (Chandler Parsons) won’t come until 2020. But the framework is there: impressive rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. and center Jonas Valanciunas should be able to fit together.

The team as a whole will still have a ways to go before it’s ready to realistically contend, but they’re moving in that direction.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Picks: 11, 43 | Cap Space: -$1.8M | Players under contract: 7-9

Of the teams likely chasing a new point guard, Minnesota is the oddity of the group, namely because they have virtually no cap space, and the quickly forgotten fact that they have a point guard (Jeff Teague, remember him) on their roster.

Also weighing down the Wolves is the Andrew Wiggins’ potential albatross of a contract ($122.2M over the next 4 seasons). Wiggins puts up decent numbers, but nowhere near the expectations that were (probably unfairly) set for him. There are things to like about Minnesota.

They have Karl-Anthony Towns, Dario Saric – once he develops his rhythm – should partner well with Towns in the frontcourt, Robert Covington is always a useful wing. Minnesota’s just missing that extra gear, they feel stuck in fourth while the better teams frequently can upshift to sixth. If the uneven Wiggins can become the player he was foreseen to be, that solves much of the problem, that just seems increasingly less likely.

New Orleans Pelicans

Picks: 1, 4, 39, 57 | Cap Space: $16.9M | Players under contract: 3-10

Anthony Davis is gone. Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart are in. Zion Williamson will soon join them. It’ll be a new look Pelicans. New Orleans likes to start Jrue Holiday in an off-guard role next to another ball-handler.

First, it was Rajon Rondo, then Elfrid Payton and now it will be Ball. More work is still to be done, the 4 pick becomes a football, plenty of teams are seeking a point guard (like Darius Garland and Coby White), the 4 becomes the sure ticket to getting one. New Orleans will field plenty of calls from the likes of Phoenix, Chicago and every other team in need of a young 1.

Maybe the Pelicans can cash the pick out and return another young veteran talent that can grow with a team that might threaten for the playoffs.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: 21 | Cap Space: -$39.6M | Players under contract: 8-12

This roster’s pretty baked in at this point, the Russell Westbrook-Paul George-Steven Adams trio is one of the better triumvirates in the NBA and is their present and future. Defensively the Thunder are brilliant, even better on the rare occasions that Andre Roberson is healthy (which is practically never, played 39 games in 2018, 0 in 2019).

But the Thunder badly need more offensive firepower. Five Thunder averaged in double-figures this past year, the highest of the rest was Terrance Ferguson’s 6.9, that’s a big drop off. Of course, George and Westbrook are going to take most of the shots, they just need another reliable scorer to supplement them.

Phoenix Suns

Picks: 6, 32 | Cap Space: $24.7M | Players under contract: 7-10

The Suns are bad at most things, save for entrusting their franchise to young players. They are very good at that, lot’s of youngsters. Anyway, that hasn’t helped them in the wins department, neither has their perennial issue of not having a competent point guard to pair with Devin Booker.

The issues in Phoenix are more than that, but on the court, not having a ballast for Booker hurt. Someone with a more guiding hand that can set up Booker and safely share the ball. Coby White was that type of guy at North Carolina, Darius Garland was more of a gunner at Vanderbilt. One thing for certain, they need to add a steady hand.

Portland Trail Blazers

Picks: 25 | Cap Space: -$17.8M | Players under contract: 10

Due to Portland’s long-standing practice of overpaying marginal players, the Trail Blazers are going to be unable to sign any key free agents, like, ever.

The positive is that Portland also has a very good team with one of the best backcourts in the NBA: Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. They also have an excellent young Center, Jusuf Nurkic, who had a breakout season until he broke his leg. To take the next leap, from West contender to NBA contender, the Blazers need to find a running mate up to the caliber of Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic.

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Since free agency won’t be an option, the Blazers will need to peruse the trading market to try to find candidates. Their best option might be to try to trade some of their expiring contracts for Cleveland’s Kevin Love, slotting Love (who went to high school in Oregon) next to Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic, would add that extra offensive punch Portland was missing in the Western Conference finals.

Sacramento Kings

Picks: 40, 47, 60 | Cap Space: $35.8M | Players under contract: 7-11

Even while finishing with a sub-.500 record, 2019 was a significant step forward for the Kings. Now, how to build on it? Their backcourt was explosive (38 ppg between Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox). Bogdan Bogdanovic was impressive as a sixth man. Harrison Barnes played alright filling out the starting five but declined a $25.1M player option for next season.

The biggest hole to fill might be a stabilizing Center, of which there are several available via free agency. Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic is an all-star, New York’s DeAndre Jordan was one, Portland’s Enes Kanter might be ready for a bigger role, and then there’s an unlikely reunion with former King DeMarcus Cousins. The more likely options are Vucevic (who would be more expensive) or Kanter, either would be improvements over Willie Cauley-Stein.

San Antonio Spurs

Picks: 19, 29, 49 | Cap Space: $9.8M | Players under contract: 11

The Spurs setting their sights, allegedly, on Bojan Bogdanovic will probably raise some eyebrows in Indiana and put Bogdanovic in a little bit better negotiating position. It’s one of the areas of need for the Spurs who are in the midst of a refurbishing of sorts. San Antonio could use more shooting, Bogdanovic would solve that defect, as would Orlando’s Terrence Ross or Philadelphia’s J.J. Redick.

A boost to the backcourt would be the return of Dejounte Murray, although a Murray-Derrick White (who had a really nice postseason) wouldn’t boost the three-point percentage. One option might be to sign the best shooter they can (or draft one), then play DeMar DeRozan at the other wing spot, while transitioning White into the Patty Mills sixth man role.

Utah Jazz

Picks: 23, 53 | Cap Space: $16.8M | Players under contract: 7-12

Here’s Indiana’s top competition for the best non-Kyrie-and-Kemba free agent point guard. The big difference between the two is potential cap space, Indiana has much more, although Utah could open up more room by not welcoming back their non-guaranteed contracts (Derrick Favors, Kyle Korver (partial), Raul Neto, Georges Niang, and Royce O’Neale). The problem, some of those players play valuable roles for Utah.

The Jazz will probably be more interested in the trade market, a la Mike Conley Jr. Utah feels that for them to take the next step they need a strong backcourt mate for Donovan Mitchell. But what is that worth to Utah? Their draft pick, Derrick Favors and Dante Exum? Is that palatable for Memphis?

With two real options to satisfy their backcourt need (D’Angelo Russell and Conley) the difference might come down to the most obtainable. And in Utah’s case, it’s probably Conley.