Matthes Manifesto III, Part I: A guide to the Indiana Pacers’ summer
Power Forward
Current Roster
Thaddeus Young, 31, free agent | T.J. Leaf, 22, signed through ’21 | Alize Johnson, 23, signed through ’20
T.J. Leaf has had moments but has had many more moments that inspire doubt, Unless he’s included in a trade, 2020 will be crucial for Leaf. He needs to play himself into regular minutes, become a steady contributor instead of the frequent bench-sitter who’ll score in double-figures 8% of the time he plays.
When your key contributors get more experienced and more expensive getting reliable players from the draft is a must. Leaf’s career probably deepens on him taking that necessary step. Alize Johnson has more leeway and less pressure. Anything he brings is a bonus.
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One of the biggest question marks of the offseason will be what to do with Thaddeus Young? Young’s brought immense value to the Pacers with his blue-collar play even since Indiana acquired him in the summer of 2016. He’s played and started in 96% of every game Indiana’s played over the last three seasons.
But his free agency brings questions, namely, how much do you value a player who’s been an invaluable contributor to your team? Not a star, but a key contributor nevertheless. Domantas Sabonis needs more playing time, it would have to come at Young’s expense. Gearing up for his final contract, is that a role the soon-to-be 31-year old Young would want?
How much do you pay him? He made $14.8M this past season, and he played up to it, but $14.8M is steep for a second-unit player. He has a home in Indiana, but would he take less to stay and maintain his locker room leadership role? Trickier still, would he get all that much more on the open market?
Young’s value is best served on contending teams, ones that are ball-movement orientated (as opposed to isolation-based) all the better, but teams that fit that description is few are far between. In a fluke of timing, it’s a buyer’s market when it comes to power forward this summer. Probably the best scenario for Indiana is Young returning, maintaining the Sabonis-Young-Myles Turner trio for the foreseeable future.
Free Agent Options
The free agent market is flowing with fours. Tobias Harris (Philadelphia) is going to get paid. He’ll be 27-years old this season, has been traded five times in his career, he’ll be looking for a stable place to thrive. And he will be lucratively rewarded for it. Needing to resign other key players will likely leave Nikola Mirotic a cap casualty for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Likely a hot commodity, Boston’s Marcus Morris will be tough for the Celtics to retain. New Orleans’ Julius Randle has found himself in an odd situation, a key contributor from a year back with a team currently in flux. Maybe a case of good-stats-bad-team with New York’s Noah Vonleh. The frequent under-achiever, infrequent starter, who yet still is coming off his season in five seasons: Washington’s Jeff Green. And then there are the glue guy’s: Portland’s Al-Farouq Aminu, the Clippers’ JaMychal Green.
Trade Options
This is a position where a trade is probably the least likely of the four options in this section. Miami has plenty of slightly overpaid fours (including Kelly Olynyk and James Johnson) they might not mind shedding. Kevin Love might be available too, but that price might be too steep. Other than that, look elsewhere.
Draft options
Kentucky’s PJ Washington fits the Pacers ethos seamlessly. With a game that resembles Thaddeus Young’s, Washington is tough and a team-first player who leads by hard work and example. Washington led the Wildcats in points and rebounds, was second in blocks and shot the highest three-point percentage on the team (at least among Wildcats who played much).
After missing the first two games of the NCAA Tournament with a foot injury, Washington came back and was Kentucky’s second-leading scoring in their Sweet Sixteen win over Houston, then the game’s leading scorer in their elite eight loss to Auburn. He is probably more suited for a “glue-guy” role in the NBA, of which Indiana has found much use for. The biggest issue with him is that he might not get down to 18.
Tennessee’s Grant Williams, on the other hand, will likely be there at 18 even though he shouldn’t be. The two-time SEC player of the year is unflappable and, like Washington, a near plug and play player. Somewhat similar to Paul Millsap, Williams can score, rebound, pass and defend.
He can score at all levels although he’s better closer to the basket than further away. He’s also tough, while not the emotional leader of the Tennessee Volunteers (that was Admiral Schofield) he was the rudder that drove Tennessee towards it’s best two-year run in nearly 20 years. Both Washington and Williams would be excellent fits if the Pacers want to add a younger four to the Domantas Sabonis-Myles Turner pairing.
Other options: the stretchy four from Europe, Luka Samanic and the injured Auburn Tiger Chuma Okeke.