Small Forward
Current Roster
Bojan Bogdanovic, 30, free agent | Doug McDermott, 27, signed through ’21
Let’s start with Doug. Doug McDermott had a weird debut season in Indiana. McDermott shot an unimpressive 31.3% on threes at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, which is terrible. On the other hand, McDermott shot a staggering 49.1% from three on the road.
That’s an unbelievable discrepancy between home and away. In 2017 he shot 34% at home and 44% on the road, which is weird enough, but a 57% difference between locations has to be an anomaly that will surely level out next season, that is if he stays as a Pacer. McDermott’s contract is very reasonable for his role (back-up wing), but if you need an extra $7M then moving him to a team that has cap space and needs shooting (like Atlanta or Sacramento) would be very tempting.
Now: Bojan Bogdanovic. If 2018 exceeded expectations, 2019 annihilated them. Bogdanovic delivered the best season of his career and posses the type of game that will age well.
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Unlike when Indiana signed him (which produced an eye-roll) whoever signs him this summer will inspire confidence that their team landed a legitimate starting small forward at worst. And that’s the danger for Pacers’ fans, the grass is always greener in free agency.
You get to know a guy over two years, his strengths, his weaknesses and you can mellow on him, all the while, that other guy in some other city had a good game against your team, sign him. Indiana can, and likely would, do much worse than Bojan Bogdanovic, keeping him seems like an obvious route for both parties.
Free Agent Options
There are a couple of elite potential free agent who are not remotely realistic options: the able bodied Kawhi Leonard (who’s likely to either stay in Toronto or join the Clippers) and the likely out for 2020 Kevin Durant ( the calculus has changed but the New York teams are the favorites).
Besides them, the other small forward who would be an arguable improvement over Bogdanovic would be Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton, who has a player option. It would be surprising to see him leave Milwaukee and, if he did, it would surely cost a pretty penny.
The other options all excel in certain aspects but are not complete packages. San Antonio’s Rudy Gay is now a glue guy who was an occasional starter with the Spurs. Brooklyn’s DeMarre Carroll is a role player, a good role player, but a role player nevertheless who is likely out of a spot with the Nets if their eyes for bigger names come through.
The Lakers’ Reggie Bullock has normally been a rather sharp three-point shooter, although he’s typically light in the other statistical categories and slumped with the struggling Lakers. Washington’s Trevor Ariza will be 34 next season and the definition of a stop gap.
Trade Options
Danilo Gallinari, of the Clippers, and his $22.6M salary will likely be available for a simple return, if the Clippers indeed seek to clear out further cap space. Gallinari is a sweet shooting combo forward who had an incredible 2019. The best of his career. He’ll be 31 next season, but the bigger eye-brow raiser is his less than flattering injury history.
A Draft Option
Belmont and Perry Meridian’s Dylan Windler is not the flashiest prospect from the big name conference, and unfortunately that will be held against him in the public square. What that criticism covers up is an offensive game and jump shot nearly identical to Klay Thompson in his Washington State days.
Athletically, he more than held his own in the combine measurements. Windler, who frequently took the opening jump at Belmont, had the fifth best overall shuttle run, twelfth best lane agility time, and his 37.5 inch vertical jump was better than 42 other participants. He was a prolific rebounder for Belmont, although it’s more due to his positioning than a devil-may-care attitude. His biggest strength, however, is that accurate jump shot (Belmont career: 54 FG, 41 3P, 76 FT). that will translate fluidly.
Other options: Kentucky wing Keldon Johnson, North Carolina shooter Cameron Johnson, in the second round there’s Oregon’s Louis King, Villanova’s Eric Paschall, Michigan’s Ignas Brazdeikis and Tennessee’s Admiral Schofield.