Why the Pacers should keep Isaiah Thomas on their free agent list
The only scenario where taking a chance on Thomas would be an option would be if neither Darren Collison or Cory Joseph return next season.
Bigger questions linger for the team this summer – will a trade or signing occur to bring in a (current) All-Star guard? Will they explore Oladipo as the primary ball-handler upon his return? How significant of a role do they want Aaron Holiday to have in the rotation? All of these questions need to be addressed before taking a gamble on a guard you’d expect to be in the rotation.
That being said, we’ve seen what the thirty-year-old point guard can accomplish when he’s the focal point of the offense. His offensive production in 2016-17 contributed to more wins than any player other than Russell Westbrook, who won the MVP award after his first season of averaging a triple-double every game.
The only scenario where taking a chance on Thomas would be an option would be if neither Darren Collison or Cory Joseph return next season.
The Pacers bench was prone to cold-streaks. Joseph wasn’t particularly known for his scoring ability and Tyreke Evans shooting was volatile all season. Thomas has a higher career three-point percentage (36% over eight seasons) than either of the two.
During the post-season press conference, Kevin Pritchard stated playing at a faster pace and three-point shooting would be the focal points of the offense moving forward. The current Nuggets guard could potentially fit that role, contingent that he can emulate a shadow of his former self. When he wasn’t injured, a large number of his attempts were pull-up shots and catch-and-shoot threes.
At times throughout the season, Aaron Holiday would be substituted in for his spark-plug ability of being able to create a shot and/or hitting a three off the dribble. If the team planned on having their young guard playing alongside another point guard, a back-court of Thomas and Holiday could be lethal in scoring.
I need to stress the use of “could be” previously. Signing the veteran guard to pair alongside the sophomore would have its immediate downsides as well. Listed at 5’9″, a back-court of Thomas and Holiday (6’1″) would be considerably under-sized.
Defensive liabilities are a well-known facet of the former All-Star’s game, but this limitation was easier to disregard when he was averaging 28.9 points per game. Next season’s roster isn’t set in stone, but I wouldn’t want to see the defensive rating for a rotation involving Thomas, Holiday, Doug McDermott and Domanatas Sabonis.
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Regarding Holiday, the Pacers young guard didn’t show a reliable level of consistency from a shooting perspective, so there’s a chance the team may not be ready to elevate him to a major role in the rotation. However, this is the case with many rookie guards and only time on the court will determine the amount of playing time he’ll receive.
If the experiment didn’t end positively, and the veteran replicates his play over the previous two seasons, the consequences would be similar to the Denver situation, and he’d be played off the court. A large reason of what made Joseph an optimal back-up was his reliability on the defensive end and his ability to move the ball. Known for his isolation play-style, Thomas shooting inconsistently could immediately stagnate the offense of a rotation.
Signing the point guard would only make sense if a major upgrade to the guard position isn’t made and the team isn’t ready to give Holiday the reigns to the backup point guard spot. Otherwise, Thomas would be superfluous to the roster. Hypothetically-speaking, if the team were to acquire an unquestionable starting guard (Kemba Walker, Malcolm Brogdon, etc.) to pair next to Oladipo, and could find a free agent guard with even a slightly better scoring ability than Joseph, Thomas would simply eat into the minutes otherwise allocated for Holiday. Considering his role will likely be expanded from last year, offering the veteran a contract just wouldn’t make sense.
Next. Checking in on the Sabonis-Turner pairing. dark
The bottom line
I believe the potential negatives of this signing make it one to stay away from. Thomas’s story is inspiring and the season he had two years ago was historic, but I think those days are behind him for good. There’s always the possibility he signs with a new team and re-surges his game in a Derrick Rose-like fashion. However, I think that’s too big of a gamble to take for a team contending to win the Eastern Conference. There is definitely no shortage of free agents that could produce similar numbers with less risk.