What should the Pacers expect when they make the 18th pick in the NBA draft?

The Indiana Pacers ended up getting the 18th pick in the 2019 NBA draft, a pick they’ve only had twice in the franchise’s history.

When the Indiana Pacers won the final game of the regular season, their draft pick was in limbo as they waited for the NBA to break the tie between them, the San Antonio Spurs, and Los Angeles Clippers.

Turns out luck was on their side as they won the tie-breaker and ended up with the 18th pick of the 2019 NBA draft. Considering the place the Pacers were in a just a few weeks prior, drafting 18th was a best-case scenario.

The 18th pick, assuming the Pacers keep it, will only be their third in franchise history. The two other picks? Current Indiana power forward T.J. Leaf (2017) and the extremely solid and somewhat underappreciated Vern Fleming (1984).

The Pacers have seen several notable 18th picks come through in their time too, including both Mark Jackson (selected by the New York Knicks), David West (New Orleans Hornets).

I feel a little bad for Leaf in the sense he often gets dumped on by fans because of his draft position and his limited contributions on the floor so far. Unless he can build off what he showed this season — and find his shot again — then that won’t change.

But picking at the 18th spot isn’t easy as the Pacers history with the pick shows as well as the fact only two NBA players made the Basketball Hall of Fame after being selected then. Those honors go to Joe Dumars and Calvin Murphy.

Figuring out the value of the pick is far from easy, but there are certain trends that can give us a general idea.

What the Pacers should expect from the 18th pick

If you aren’t in the front-end of the NBA draft lottery, it’s much harder to find franchise-altering talent. Making the right choice at 18th is a bit of a balancing act between looking for a solid player with a lowe ceiling or taking a risk on a more raw but talented player.

There’s value to be found there as players like J.R. Smith, Marco Belinelli, and Jason Collins can attest to, but it’s far from a sure thing. 2011’s 18th pick was the then-Washington Wizards’ Chris Singleton, who is already out of the NBA and only lasted three seasons.

Coincidentally, the last team that signed him was the Indiana Pacers in 2014, but he was cut before the regular season began.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

• 2 Studs, 1 dud from gut-wrenching Indiana Pacers loss to Charlotte Hornets
• Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
• Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?

Not to dig too deep on this but going back to 2004’s pick, Smith, who was the oldest active 18th pick still playing on an NBA team earlier this year, but five others (including Singleton) are out of the NBA now. Most are older, like Ty Lawson or Oleksiy Pecherov, but some are as recent as Tyler Ennis (2014) and Shane Larkin (2013).

Also coincidentally, Pecherov was taken by the Washington Wizards and lasted only three seasons. So if you’re the 18th pick and taken by the Wizards, don’t plan on sticking around the NBA too long.

But trivia aside, looking at recent history, you might find someone like Terrence Jones, Ty Lawson, Eric Bledsoe, Smith, or Belinelli, all of which averaged over 10 points a game in their careers. Fine, but nothing overly spectacular. With the exception of a few seasons from Eric Bledsoe, we’re not talking about 20+ point scorers. More of the solid complementary pieces a team needs than stars.

The Pacers might get lucky with their pick and find one of those surprises, but if the Pacers select a Tyler Herro or Talen Horton-Jones with their pick, fans should expect a solid role player and hope for something more.