Can the Indiana Pacers win a playoff series?

With the All-Star break gone, the Indiana Pacers enter the home stretch 38-20 and in third place in the East. With 24 games left, the pressing question is not if the Pacers will make the playoffs, but can they win once there?

Of course, the Indiana Pacers can win in the playoffs.

Or at least that’s the simplest answer to whether the Indiana Pacers could win a playoff series. Not a hard “yes” carved in granite. Not a firm “no” smelted in bronze. But, rather, an acknowledgment of the possible: of course Indiana could beat some team four times in seven, not every team, but most.

The deeper question, rests with which team Indiana plays, the few that it will be a struggle or the many where the Pacers would excel?

Playoffs are all about matchups unless your team has, I don’t know, five all-stars, in dynastic form who all complement each other and share the ball. But, for the mere mortals, the playoffs are all about matchups.

A team’s style matches up more favorably against some teams more than others. Like the Indiana Pacers without Victor Oladipo (arguably even with him), are not well-suited to get into a track meet with another team. If the opponent is just racing up and down the floor, draining threes in the process, the Pacers will struggle.

But if Indiana can control the pace, make the opponent play basketball rather than pop-a-shot, the Pacers can matchup with most anyone.

Indiana did that against Milwaukee before the All-Star break. The Pacers slowed down the Bucks, closed out well on Milwaukee’s shooters, and had a real chance at defeating the East’s best team.

Of course, Indiana lost, which speaks to how tough it would be to upset a team like the Bucks. Indiana played their game, had a ten-point lead and still lost. But games like that can go either way if Indiana plays to their strengths they would be at least a tough out.

The balanced approach of the Indiana Pacers

The Pacers use their balance to their advantage. Instead of having a singular offensive fulcrum (like Oladipo) they diversify the attack. Since Oladipo’s injury on January 23, Indiana has done that: Bojan Bogdanovic is averaging 20.4 points per game (on 51/39/86 shooting), Myles Turner 16.1 ppg (42 percent from three), Darren Collison, 14.2 ppg (50 percent from three), Thaddeus Young 11.1 ppg (like Turner, 42 percent from three), and Domantas Sabonis 10.5 ppg (54 percent from the field).

Indiana has made up for not having Oladipo by relying on that balance, and the familiarity that comes with five players who are in their second season playing together, including a spirited playoff last year. The Pacers defend well, the share well, they do everything well, and they do it in a consistent way. Indiana used their defense and balanced offense to head into the All-Star break winners of six of their last seven.

Indiana excelled in the type of games that most resemble playoff games: hectic and disjointed with long possessions. In a way, the playoffs are played in a fashion that this Pacers team is fashioned to succeed in.

But playoffs are about matchups, and it won’t matter if the Pacers execute their style or not if they have to play the perfect juggernaut designed to destroy them. So which teams are they most likely to play in the playoffs.

In the East, there are nine to ten teams with realistic playoffs hopes (technically eleven if you could Washington, which I am not). Baring the unexpected, Milwaukee and Toronto will have the top two seeds, meaning Indiana would not see either of them until the semi-finals. At the bottom: Brooklyn, Charlotte, Detroit, Miami and Orlando are separated by three games for sixth place. Reason would assume the Nets are the best of that bunch, but they have yet to significantly separate themselves.

Since Indiana will likely not catch the Bucks or Raptors (5.5 and 4.5 games, respectively, are hard to make up with two dozen games to play) we can assume that at least four of the five playoff bottom-feeders are off the table too. By process of elimination, Indiana will either play: Philadelphia, Boston or one of those five, most likely Brooklyn if the Pacers finish third.

What’s the likelihood Indiana finishes third? On the surface you’d say not much, Indiana doesn’t have the name-recognition players that Boston or Philadelphia have. Like that matters. The Pacers do enter the homestretch with a game advantage over the other two (1.5 games on Boston), so if the three teams finish with identical records down the stretch Indiana has the three. Now, that scenario is obviously unlikely, what are the chances that they all finish with the same record? None? So let’s look at each team.

While Indiana can’t match the star power of the other two, the Pacers are the most consistent of the three. Philadelphia is in a weird spot. After acquiring Tobias Harris, the petulant Jimmy Butler has been relegated to the fourth option on offense when Joel Embiid is healthy, which he’s not at the moment (although it’s nothing too serious).

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Balancing four players could be tricky for Philly, especially when emotions begin to ratchet up as the pressure of the postseason approaches. Then Boston has been internally feuding all season long. Inconsistent teams like the Celtics rarely get it together in the postseason. While most everyone assumed Boston would “get it together” it’s becoming more and more likely, that this is the 2018-19 Celtics, a team of hope unrealized.

Tough road ahead

Among the three the Pacers face the toughest remaining schedule, but it’s not substantially tougher than what Boston or Philadelphia will face (Indiana’s opponent win-percentage: .522, Boston .516, Philadelphia .486). All three play each other down the stretch, which is an opportunity to deliver blows to rivals. No team plays as tough a stretch as Indiana has to face when they play the Thunder (twice), Nuggets (twice), Blazers, Clippers, Warriors, and Celtics in an eight-game stretch.

That’s rough but at least Indy doesn’t have to spend three games playing Golden State and Milwaukee (like Philadelphia does) or have to start the stretch-run against the Bucks, Raptors, and Warriors (like Boston does).

If the Pacers can survive that eight-game stretch then hanging on the three-seed is entirely plausible, even with the Sixers having the easiest final six games of the three. If Indiana struggles during that eight-game stretch, or much at all, it will likely be tough to fend off Philadelphia, if not Boston too. But, Indiana does control its own destiny.

If Indiana can hang on to the three seed the road is much more manageable. Brooklyn is tough, they are spunky, they play quickly, but they are vulnerable. The Nets are rarely patent enough to play the Pacers style and are currently winless against the Pacers this season with one more game to play between the two. The likely second-round opponent (Toronto) would be very tough, but at least a semi-final matchup would be the expected situation.

If Indiana can hang on to the three seed the road is much more manageable. Brooklyn is tough, they are spunky, they play quickly, but they are vulnerable.

If Indiana can’t hold on to the three seed the road is much tougher. A likely first-round series with Boston (assuming Philadelphia is the team with the better record) would await. A challenge whether Indiana is the home team or not.

The Celtics are not unbeatable, the series would likely be a dogfight much like last year’s with Cleveland was, but they would surely be the favorite. If the Pacers pull the upset, the Milwaukee awaits, daunting, to say the least.

So, can the Indiana Pacers win a playoff series: of course they can. But a lot depends on how they handle their remaining two dozen games.

Play well, and maintaining the East’s three seed is firmly in play along with a longer stay in the playoffs. Struggle in the remaining games and the Pacers ratchet up the level of difficulty. But, they entered the all-star break clicking. They maintain that momentum and anything is possible.