Mike Conley trade rumors: Do the Indiana Pacers make sense?

The Memphis Grizzlies will listen to trade offers on star guard Mike Conley. This could be an opportunity for the Indiana Pacers to improve their team.

The Indiana Pacers have two point guards on expiring contracts. Mike Conley is now the subject of trade rumors. Is there any fit here? Or do we just have a coincidence?

The Conley rumors began Tuesday, as Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reported that the Grizzlies will be “listening to trade offers” on their star point guard. He broke the news first on Twitter, as is the norm with him:

Conley is currently in the midst of a great year. He’s averaging the second best scoring number of his career at 19.8 points per game. His assist numbers are some of the highest they have ever been. His turnover rate is shockingly good for how many passes he throws; he never coughs it up. This year is one of his most impactful offensive seasons.

That is what would make Conley a guy the Pacers would like to acquire, in theory. He’s a really good player. He can set up his teammates. He is a solid defensive player (he’s been declining on this end of the floor since he led the league in steals a half-decade ago, but he’s still solid). He hardly ever makes careless mistakes. In theory, that player is the perfect guy to have next to Victor Oladipo — a guy who can be really good and take care of the ball on an elevated but not supreme usage rate.

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But there are some drawbacks. Roughly 65 million of them. And a few more, even.

That big, obvious thing everyone knows about Mike Conley is that he was one of the first stars to get paid during the crazy summer spending of 2016 — he pulled in a 5-year, $152 million contract.

Currently, it has 2.5 seasons left. His deal is valued at slightly above $30.5 million this season (which is what he counts for in trades), then $32.5 million next year, and a $34.5 million player option in 2020-21.

That is a LOT of smackeroos. A brinks trucks worth. That would fill up about 60 percent of the Pacers available cap space in the summer, possibly even more, if the front office makes that trade right now. You could easily argue that Mike Conley is not worth 60 percent (or more) of your available cap space.

There is another downside to Conley. His injury history is longer than a CVS receipt. This tweet is from after the 2014-15 season, so I will add to it after posting it:

Then, in 2015-16, he missed 26 games with Achilles and left foot injuries. In 2016-17, he missed 13 games due to a fractured vertebra. In 2017-18,  he missed almost the entire season with another Achilles ailment. His injury rap sheet is very long.

Combining the injury list and the massive contract makes Conley somewhat unappealing to trade for. It kinda depends what you value more, his upside or his downside. He’s really good and fits well with your team’s star and roster construction, but he could be a disaster for your team building goals going forward. It’s a tough balance to strike.

I understand both sides.

On one hand, Conley is the type of guy you theoretically stay patient for. A star (or borderline star) who is available and fits your team and culture. Mike Conley is that type of player.

But looking at the other hand, you see an obscene amount of money and a risk that the player you give that money to is hurt all the time. That is a huge, huge risk.

That peril has to be factored into his trade value. The Grizzlies probably would like to get some combination of good picks, young players and cap relief for him. I would be hesitant to offer more than 1.5 of those things. Here is something that works that kinda accomplishes those goals.

The Memphis Grizzlies get cap relief in the form of expiring contracts, a young player in TJ Leaf, and a future first-round pick. The Indiana Pacers get… Mike Conley. Duh.

This doesn’t sacrifice a ton of Indiana’s future to get Conley, but it does come with a huge opportunity cost. It takes up a huge amount of the Pacers potential upcoming cap space that they could use to sign one or more other useful players.

Does Memphis accept that? I’m not sure they do. But that is a starting point, probably.

Let me add another wrinkle. If the Pacers wait until summer, they could make the trade more seamlessly. They could have the cap space to just take Conley in without sending out an equivalent salary.

That means the Grizzlies would have to take no money back in a deal. If they really value cap space and not spending any more money than they absolutely have to, that could be really valuable to their owner. It would also allow the Pacers to have more time to see what their needs are, and it would allow them to see if they could do something better with their cap space. It could, in theory, be a win-win to wait. But it means the Pacers don’t get Conley until this summer – after this season has concluded.

With either trade timing, there is one big pro. It gets you a really freakin’ good basketball player. The cons? Well, I’ve listed them, but I’ll do it again. Because they are numerous and huge in magnitude.

His injury history is insane, so optimistically you’re getting like 150 games of this dude. This dude, who happens to be an aging point guard who makes a zillion dollars.

Conley will turn 32 right before next season starts. The Indiana Pacers would have him from his age-32 season to the end of his age-33 season. Take a look at this data study to see how typical players drop off at those ages. It isn’t pretty.

What we can’t calculate is how typical of a player Mike Conley is. He doesn’t operate with a ton of burst or athleticism, but he has the injury history, so he could start to show signs of aging at literally any time. That is a huge red flag.

And, again, he makes over $32 million next year. At next years project $109 million salary cap, he would make just a hair under 30 percent of the salary cap. Is he a guy who you pay that much for? That answer probably depends from person to person.

The number of cons outweighs the number of pros, but that’s bad analysis. Do the value of the pros outweigh the cons? That is what should be asked. And I think that is a tough question to answer.

For example – sure the money sucks. But the Pacers don’t get stars in free agency. They just don’t. For them to get simply good players, that have to a pay a premium, far above market value. Conley makes far above market value. He probably makes about what it would take for Indiana to get a player of his skill level. The only difference is you would have to trade assets away for him, which is much worse than straight up signing a guy. Either way, their is validity to both sides of this part of the argument. His money sucks, but it is the Indiana money. Is it worth it? I land right on the fence. It’s only two years, and it’s not my money. But it could cripple the team’s chances of building something better. Keyword: could.

Additionally, this sounds impossible, the Pacers could get to about $20 million of cap space even after they trade for Conley. They could have Oladipo, McDermott, Conley, Turner, Sabonis, Alize Johnson, Holiday, Sumner, and a 2019 first round pick all on the roster and still have about $20 million in space. That is enough wiggle room combined with a core, to get something done and have a really good roster.

Sure, without Conley you could have up to $50 million in space. That is a huge opportunity cost. But it’s not like Conley makes it impossible to do anything productive this summer. Indy could have a lot of cap room either way.

As for injuries, more of them come with age, but the Indiana Pacers training staff is top-notch. They were the training staff for Team LeBron in the All-Star game last season. Could they keep Conley healthy, tough? That’s an impossible question to answer. I think they have a better shot than most other NBA training staffs. But he’s the wrong side of 30. The odds might not matter. It could not be possible to keep him decidedly healthy.

There are ways to push back against every negative part of acquiring him, but you can’t spell Conley without con. There are no ways of getting around them. Because of that, I will make one stipulation regarding trades.

Do not give up Aaron Holiday. Do not do it. He isn’t worth all of these cons. Were Conley a few years younger, a few million cheaper, or didn’t have the injury history, you could maybe talk me into it. But none of those are true. It looks exceedingly likely that Holiday will offer a solid amount of total value to the Pacers. You need to keep him to harness that value or use him in a trade for a guy who is much more so a home run that Mike Conley.

There is no reason to force this trade right now. If Memphis is asking for too much, just walk away. The negatives make it easy to do just that. You can circle back in the summer, too, when taking Conley into space as well as sign and trade options become available. The key is just to be patient. The front office knows that – this blurb is more for the “you have to take a risk” crowd.

Because I am a human, I want to have an opinion on the matter. I have an irrational affinity for Conley because he is from Indianapolis, but I have done my best to not let that cloud my thinking. Here is where I stand.

On one side of the coin, Conley is the guy you are patient for. Ideologically, you hold on to assets and cap space for a guy that A) fits your team and culture and B) is really good. Applying that idea to Conley is fine. He checks both of those boxes. In that way, I’m in.

On the other side of the coin, uhh, is a lot of stuff. Age. Money. Injuries. A cost to trade for. Those all matter to me. Plus, Conley is old. The Pacers and their good players are generally young. He isn’t a snug fit on Indiana’s timeline to compete. Who knows how effective he would be at the peak of Victor Oladipo‘s powers during the current era of Pacers basketball.

Ultimately, I think I would not trade for Mike Conley… right now. I would try to wait until the summer and use some of my salary cap space as a de facto asset to ensure I could keep my actual assets.

Memphis should be happy with not taking money back. I’m not sure how much they value that. But as they build around Indy native Jaren Jackson Jr, having massive amounts of money coming off the books has to be appealing, and the Pacers can offer them that.

This fake trade is really tough to navigate. There are a lot of angles to it. With the trade deadline approaching and the Indiana Pacers sitting at third in the Eastern Conference standings, you know the front office is looking at ways to upgrade the team. Mike Conley could be the guy that allows them to do that. His big contract could also get them stuck in the mud through the rest of Victor Oladipo’s deal. It’s a risk. The Indiana Pacers make a lot of sense as a Conley destination, but the risks and the opportunity costs may just be too high right now.