More than a statement: Why the Indiana Pacers need a win over the Philadelphia 76ers

While their overall record protects them from plenty of criticism, the Indiana Pacers could use a statement win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

The 82-game regular season is a very long journey for many NBA teams. While for some (say, the Golden State Warriors) it is merely a very long on-ramp, for many others — including the Indiana Pacers — fighting for playoff positioning can determine whether a postseason run ends in the first round or if it clears the way for a potential run to the conference or NBA Finals.

So when you look at Indiana’s 11-11 record against teams with winning records, it’s worth noting that isn’t just a potential sign of fraudulence — The Pacers beat bad teams, struggle against good ones — it might also mean they could end up losing a spot in the playoffs thanks to being on the wrong end of a tiebreaker.

That’s why Indiana needs to pick up a primetime win against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Indiana (29-14) now holds a one-game lead over the Fightin’ Jimmy Butlers of Philly (29-16), but a loss to the 76ers would do more than start to even things up in the standings, it potentially could drastically change their playoff fate.

A simple look at the Indiana Pacers’ potential playoff path

Assuming that the Eastern Conference stays roughly on the same course it is now, the Pacers would be the No. 3 seed and take on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round while the 76ers would face the Boston Celtics.

With all due respect to the Nets, that’s a series Indiana should win. They’d have the advantage in almost every area, including playoff experience. That’s a pretty good shot at making the second round.

The 76ers and Celtics battling in the first round would just be a fringe benefit to Indiana. One of the perceived top-4 teams in the East would be eliminated, and Pacers would face a Milwaukee Bucks team they’ve currently split the season series with.

That’s a legitimate shot at making the Conference finals, even if a tough one.

However, a loss to the 76ers on today certainly complicates things as far as positioning and tiebreakers go. If Indiana and Philadelphia, only a game apart now, end the season with the same record, then the Pacers would face additional obstacles.

Indiana would then need to win their last meeting in March with the 76ers just to force tie breaking scenarios. That’s where things might get a little weird.

Assuming the series ends tied and neither gets ahead of their division’s leader (The Bucks for Indiana, the Toronto Raptors for Philadelphia), the two teams would end up looking at the fourth tiebreaker, which is the best conference winning percentage. While Indiana now holds a modest lead there (22-7 vs 19-13), they also have one of the toughest schedules in the NBA remaining. That conference winning percentage is bound to drop.

So a loss tonight would add to the pressure the Pacers face as well as taking the fate of their playoff spot out of their own hands.

But today is more about making a statement than anything else

Regardless of the potential playoff matchups — we’re only halfway through the season, after all — Indiana could use a quality win. While a .500 record against winning teams isn’t a terrible thing, it’s a reminder that they’ve yet to force their way into the discussion about the conference’s best teams.

Splits with the Bucks, Celtics, and 76ers at the moment don’t inspire confidence — nor do a pair of losses to the Raptors. Yes, there are some disclaimers (Victor Oladipo missed a month, Myles Turner missed two of those “statement games”), it doesn’t change the fact people still see Indiana as the odd-man out behind those teams.

Picking up a win against the 76ers might start to move the conversation back in Indiana’s direction. For as much as it is assumed that Philadelphia is better (more stars, better record last season) a victory for the Pacers starts to call that into question.

Not only would a win give Indiana an advantage in the playoff race, but it would start to change the conversation in the Eastern Conference on who really are the top 4 teams.

But it’s only one game

As much as statement games and quality wins can exist, a win (or loss) tonight is only one game. The winner only gets a one-game lead in the season series, meaning things might still end a draw.

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Even an efficient, convincing, and satisfying win for either squad only creates a little separation. With more than three dozen games left to play, either team (or the Celtics, for example) could move up or down the standings with a string of good or bad play. Ultimately, the two team’s series might end up having little effect on the playoff spots.

But one game might matter

Regardless of the statement a win could make or the fact that Indiana and Philadelphia might not be stacked near each other when the regular season ends, one game can end up mattering. Indiana was just a pair of games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers a season ago. They were that close to home-courting advantage in the first round. And in a seven-game series like the one they played in, that might have been the difference.

Neither team is punching a ticket to the NBA Finals tonight, but if they do want to get there, they might be saving themselves trouble down the road by picking up a win now, one they very well may need in April.