The ballad of T.J. Leaf, played in (DNP-C) D

TJ Leaf, the Indiana Pacers 18th overall pick a year ago, is just 21 years old. It’s certainly forgivable for a 21-year-old to struggle in the NBA.

It takes years for players bodies and understanding of the game to develop, and Indiana Pacers forward TJ Leaf is no exception. While expectations were (reasonably) low for his sophomore season, things have not gone as planned thus far. It’s still early, and there’s plenty of time for things to turn around (The Pacers are only 14 games into the season), but the results so far aren’t great.

Leaf started with a surprisingly strong preseason. In the 3 games prior to his unfortunate ankle injury, Leaf averaged 11.7 points and 7.7 rebounds (including an excellent 3.7 offensive rebounds) on 57% shooting. “Teej” looked more comfortable on defense, and did more than just shoot jump shots on the offensive end of the court. Right as fans started to get excited about the prospect of Leaf being the final big in the rotation, injury struck. Leaf didn’t return in the preseason and hasn’t been able to solidify his spot in the rotation since. We’re going to take a quick look at his numbers so far this season (Beware: Small sample size theater!!!) and catch up on how Leaf’s fallen.

2018 Numbers:

TJ has played 8 of the Pacers 14 games so far and is shooting only 26.3% from the field and 25% from deep. He’s averaging just 1.4 points and 1.4 rebounds while sporting an unthinkable 1.7 PER. The Pacers are just creeping towards being 20% into the season. The season is far from over, but it’s no longer extremely early on anymore.

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• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
• Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?

Problem areas:

Well, everything. On the whole, Leaf has done very little well this year. He’s had a few inspiring rebounds and has shown a bit of potential as a finisher on the offensive glass (not a development I ever saw coming), but overall, it’s not pretty. His shooting is the most concerning. That was his biggest plus skill coming into the league, and it hasn’t been there for him yet this season.

Positive signs:

Leaf has only had double-digit minutes in 3 of his 8 games so far. In those games (a 20 point win against San Antonio, a 1 point win against Boston, and a 4 point loss against Houston), he finished as a positive in +/- in all 3 games. He finished +5 in the blowout win over San Antonio, +4 against Boston, and +3 against the Rockets. His numbers in those games were no better than the rest, but the fact that he was in the positives in the only 3 games he played double-digit minutes bears watching. (Correlation doesn’t always equal causation, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.)

Overall:

It’s too early to make any judgment either way. There are a lot of negative signs and a few positive ones. More than anything, the Pacers need Leaf to be playable – just for ~10 minutes per night – or they will need to make a roster move. In the 3 games Leaf got the dreaded DNP-CD (Did not play – coach’s decision), Kyle O’Quinn played sparingly (10 minutes total) as Nate mostly went to a 9 man rotation. O’Quinn is a bad fit next to Domas Sabonis. If TJ Leaf can’t stay on the court this season, the Pacers will either need to acquire a stretch 4, or someone who can bump McDermott down (gulp) to the backup 4. They need him to be better.