What will the Western Conference look like? Who is making the playoffs? Jonathan Matthes breaks it down in the Matthes Manifesto II. For a look at the East, see his breakdown here.
The Golden State Warriors
What can you say about the Golden State Warriors that is new? They’ve won three of the last four championships. The quintet of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins might just be the greatest front five in league history, at least when they are healthy.
Even if their skills have slipped a little, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston provide the humble excellence that has helped drive this team for the last four seasons.
But a couple subtle additions will be a further boost to the Warriors. Drafting rookie Jacob Evans and signing forward Jonas Jerebko adds to the only thin section of Golden State’s roster: the wing. Will the Warriors break their own season record for wins? Probably not, although this team could challenge it if they so choose too.
Are they unbeatable? No, but they’re pretty close to it. Could Cousins poison the golden goose? Maybe, it’s possible, but with a more-or-less one-off chance for a championship in his grasp, he should be able to play nice.
The Golden State run won’t last forever, it might not last past this season, and there are pitfalls from the East and West that will try to derail them, but Golden State’s the best team on paper.
The Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz entered the last season’s playoffs as one of the league’s hottest teams. They fell to Houston in five games but won 33 of the 41 games that preceded their playoff ouster. Utah had the second best record in the West after the all-star break.
The pairing of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell is sensational. The roster around them just fits. Head Coach Quin Snyder gets the best out of his team. Their home court advantage is one of the best in basketball.
Some of the questions that dog the Jazz are the same that dog the Indiana Pacers, can Utah replicate what they did last year? With a year of growth from Mitchell, a full year of Gobert, the steadiness of Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Royce O’Neale and Derrick Favors, Utah should be able to pair an improved offense with its elite defense.
Does that make them a championship contender, not sure, but it should lead to posting their best record since their last NBA Finals trip in 1998.
The Houston Rockets
Houston came within one game of unseating the Warriors and representing the Western Conference in last year’s NBA Finals, but alas, Chris Paul was injured and they fell short. It will be tough for them to repeat a similar feat.
Not only did Golden State improve, but so did Oklahoma City (by subtraction) and the Lakers. Utah and Denver will both get full seasons from key players. While Houston lost three key players from their short bench (Trevor Ariza, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Gerald Green) Ariza and Mbah a Moute were integral in the Rockets strong defense.
They have been replaced by Carmelo Anthony. Anthony will be a spot-up shooter in Houston, a role that he rebelled against in Oklahoma City. Anthony will have to play some defense, a duty he’s been ignoring for years.
The Rockets don’t play a deep enough bench to hide him, and Houston needs him to deliver at a similar level that he did during his duties on the US Olympic team if they want to have realistic championship aspirations again.
Maybe James Harden and Chris Paul can rein him in and get the best out of him.
The Oklahoma City Thunder
Russell Westbrook begins the year injured, he won’t miss too many games, but he will begin the year in street clothes. Look out when he returns. The Oklahoma City starting five, lacks the pizzazz of Golden State but lacks nothing in substance. Westbrook is a killer and a dynamic frontman. Paul George is an ideal number two option to feed off Westbrook.
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Steven Adams is one of the most underrated centers in the league, a dominant presence that fits with the two stars. Andre Roberson (also injured to start the year) is the defensive wing stopper, sticking to opposing stars like glue. And, speaking of which, Jerami Grant is the glue-forward who is capable of doing all the little things. It’s one of the best-constructed starting fives in the league.
The bench still leaves something to be desired. The unit isn’t bad, but it’s nothing to celebrate either. The space that Patrick Patterson should be able to provide from power forward and the inside game that Nerlens Noel should supply as a backup center should both be pluses.
Emphasis on the should. Patterson is a reliable bench player, but Noel has never really lived up to the hype that his draft position generated. OKC could use a step up from either Alex Abrines and Terrence Ferguson.
A productive bench could push the Thunder into the number one contender status (behind Golden State), they’ll be competitive even if they don’t.