Early 2019 Pacers Free Agency Target: Tobias Harris

The Indiana Pacers could have a lot of money to spend in the summer of 2019. Let’s take a way-too-early look at someone they could target next offseason: Tobias Harris.

The preseason of the 2018-2019 NBA campaign is just around the corner, and team rosters for everyone are essentially decided, barring the impending Jimmy Butler trade and any cuts that are made after teams finish training camp. So with a full season of hoops ahead of us, is it too early to start thinking about free agency next summer? I mean, probably, sure. But as sports fans, we’re cursed to always be looking ahead. Living in the moment is difficult when you know next summer could be when your team finally gets that missing piece they’ve been after – the one that would allow them to take the next step to greatness. Because of this, I’ve decided to take a look at some realistic targets the Indiana Pacers could go after in the 2019 offseason, starting with an exciting forward from the Clippers, Tobias Harris.

Historically, the Indiana Pacers have not exactly been a popular free agency destination for superstars. There are plenty of big names on the market next summer, but a gambling man should feel pretty comfortable betting on most of the top 7 or 8 guys available showing little interest in spending the next few years in the Crossroads of America. These top-tier free agents include guys like Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins.

Instead, the Pacers will likely be suitors for the second-tier of free agents, which Tobias Harris falls into. Harris is making a healthy $14.8 million this year and figures to get a decent raise next summer. In fact, he’s already turned down an extension offer from the Clippers which would’ve netted him $80 million dollars over the next five seasons, so it’s clear that Harris sees himself being worth more than that contract.

The good news is that the Indiana Pacers figure to have cap space available to offer a guy like Tobias Harris the raise that he’s after. In fact, Indiana has the highest total of “Practical Cap Space” next year, totaling out to around $66.8 million. Now, some of this money is obviously already essentially spoken for (including a new contract for rising star center, Myles Turner, which will likely fall in the $20-25 million range), but after decisions are made on other expiring contracts (Young, Evans, Collison, Bogdanovic, Joseph, and O’Quinn), the Pacers should still be looking at enough money to send a good offer Harris’ way.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

• 2 Studs, 1 dud from gut-wrenching Indiana Pacers loss to Charlotte Hornets
• Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
• Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?

Tobias Harris will still very much be in his prime next summer, as he will only be 27 years old. He’s about the same age as Victor Oladipo, so the Pacers would feel confident in getting high production from Harris for every year of a contract they could potentially offer him. Furthermore, he’s stayed relatively healthy in recent years (including starting an impressive 80 games last season), so there aren’t a lot of concerns on the injury front.

Harris has been a bit of a journeyman in his seven pro seasons, playing for four teams already. He’s a guy that’s previously spent multiple years with small market teams, including divisional rivals Milwaukee and Detroit. This should also be encouraging for the Pacers’ chances to land a player like Harris next summer, since finding pieces that are okay with the small market can occasionally be a challenge.

All of these things are signs that bode well for potentially seeing Harris in the blue and gold someday. But what really matters is how he would fit with the team.

This is where things get a bit tricky. Tobias Harris is a combo forward, meaning he’s able to play both small and power forward. However, he has not been primarily listed as a small forward since his stint with Orlando in 2014-2015.

The Pacers have potential starting forward positions at both slots opening up next summer, with small forward Bojan Bogdanovic and power forward Thad Young both becoming free agents next year. Thad has already said he wants to stay here, so that starting power forward position could already be spoken for. It gets even more complicated at the power forward position when you consider that the Pacers will also spend a lot of time figuring out if their two talented, young bigs, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, can coexist in the starting frontcourt for the Pacers. Considering all of this, it seems much more likely that the starting small forward position will be open for a guy like Tobias Harris. All that needs to happen for that to be the case would be for Indiana to decide to move on from Bogdanovic, or at least re-sign him with the expectation that he’ll come off of the bench.

If Harris is signed to be the starting small forward, he’s capable of still being very effective from that position, even if it’s not where he’s played the last few years. Defensively, Harris is a positive player from inside 15 feet, and close to a neutral player from the perimeter. Compared to Bojan Bogdanovic, Harris is actually slightly better defending on the wing. Offensively, Harris has enough firepower to be very successful on the perimeter. Before this season, Harris was never an extremely prolific three-point shooter. His career average from deep is around 36%, which is solid, but not exceptional.

But last season – in a year that Harris played nearly a full 82 games – he put up his most attempts from deep ever (5.6 attempts per game) and shot 41% for the year, a career best. This alone made him a great stretch-four for the Pistons and Clippers and would likely lead to success at the three if that’s where Indiana ultimately would have to plug him in. On the season last year, Harris averaged 18.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game. These are numbers that would make Harris a great second or third scoring option for the Pacers, and his newfound proficiency from deep would help keep the floor spaced well for Oladipo to slash to the rim at will:

Clearly, the 2019 free agency madness is very far away. It’s completely possible that Thad Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Domantas Sabonis, and company all have stellar seasons worthy of new contracts and/or positions in the starting lineup. If that’s the case, the Pacers would probably be wise to try to bring some of their own free agents back instead of looking elsewhere. Chemistry is a sometimes underrated aspect of building a quality team, and the Pacers have plenty of that to go around with the group of guys they already have on the roster.

However, if the organization decides to move on from some of these guys, or the players themselves decide to take their talents elsewhere, it’s important for the team to have potential targets in mind to go after if necessary. There are some possible concerns with fit for Tobias Harris, but he checks a lot of boxes for what Indiana will likely be looking for in a forward if next summer leads to an opening. Take it with a grain of salt for now, but don’t be surprised if Tobias Harris is a name you hear linked to the Indiana Pacers in 2019.