Was Domantas Sabonis snubbed from the 25 under 25 list?

The Step Back created a list ranking the 25 best NBA players under 25 years old. Indiana Pacers center Domantas Sabonis was left off of this group of players. I am here to address this error.

Domantas Sabonis continues to get overlooked, both as a player and a prospect. It wasn’t long ago he was a key piece in the Indiana Pacers haul for Paul George.

Sabonis wasn’t considered the piece, but he was only one year removed from being a lottery pick. He wasn’t a top-10 pick, but he showed a ton of promise at Gonzaga and was considered to be a good, at worst, prospect.

His rookie year didn’t go great, but that is largely due to the fact he was used out of position and out of his comfort zone. He is a post player, but Billy Donovan and the Thunder used him as a perimeter player. This past season, we saw how effective he can be when used properly.

Zoom out a little and change your thinking. Domantas is a center. His one season as an Indiana Pacers player was, essentially, his “rookie year” at his natural position, since he spent his first season as a stretch four. He has actually played two seasons in the NBA, yes, but it is another way of thinking about the scope of Sabonis’ career.

Regardless of that anecdotal technicality, Sabonis is only 22 years old and just had a good; nay, a damn good age-21 season. The Lithuanian big racked up 4.7 win shares last season, ranking him 6th amongst players his age or younger. You won’t find many 21 years olds as impactful as Sabonis.

So image my surprise when reading an (albeit very entertaining and well thought out) piece from The Step Back about the 25 best players under 25 years old in the NBA and not seeing Domantas Sabonis’ name.

Granted: the filter I described above was designed to show how good Sabonis’ was compared to players his age (21 and younger) in order to show how talented he is as a player and prospect. But the 25 under 25 project from The Step Back has a wider range of ages, and some of the guys on the list are older than Sabonis.

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If you change the filter from my above query to players who were 24 or younger this past season (i.e. under 25 now), Sabonis ranks 28th in win shares in this new group. That’s still exceptional for a second-year player and shows he was impactful, but it is outside the top 25, the cutoff for the list in discussion.

But many of the guys in front of him have a half-decade of seasons under their belt. They have plateaued, or at least more than Domas. Sabonis is entering year three, and only year two of playing his natural position. He could, and should, pass a number of those 28 guys in front of him (Montrez Harrell, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Jerami Grant highlight this group) in terms of total impact this coming season since he has more room to improve than those guys do.

Let’s talk more about The Step Back’s project. The intended goal was to project the 25 best players under 25 throughout the 2018-19 season. That caveat is important, as it ensures they are ranking players based on one season of play and not factoring in long-term potential too heavily.

The top-10 of the list is fantastic. You can quibble with the order if you want, but those ten guys will have a grip on the league for the next decade.

In the next group of five guys, we find Myles Turner. His ranking is fair and reflective of his own plateauing, but he has shown he can be a dominant player at times already. He deserves his spot.

But after 15 is where things get weird. From 15-20 you have Aaron Gordon, Brandon Ingram, Lauri Markkanen, Julius Randle, and Marcus Smart. Sabonis ranked ahead of four of those guys in win shares last season, with the exception being Randle. He’s already in this tier of total impact.

Granted: win shares is a cumulative stat, and Sabonis played more games than all of the aforementioned four guys he is ahead of. But as has been said: one of the best  NBA abilities is availability. Sabonis has missed nine games over two season so far in his career. He is a healthy guy, and the Pacers have a top-notch training staff (they were the training staff for Team LeBron in the All-Star game this past season). He should log another long and healthy season. That matters, and you can’t be as confident in the health of the other guys in this grouping.

If you want to say any of those five guys will be better than Sabonis this coming season, that is fine. I get it and wouldn’t argue too much. But the last five on the 25 under 25 is what really irked me.

In this group, we have OG Anunoby, Jaren Jackson Jr., Lonzo Ball, Dario Saric, and Wendell Carter Jr. My first thought is that Dario Saric should be much higher. Saric is already very good, and like Sabonis, he has only played two seasons.

Additionally, Lonzo is rightfully placed in this group. Outside of shooting, he showed excellent promise in just about every other key skill area as a rookie. Playing next to LeBron should only make things easier for him, and his shot should improve as he ages. Ball’s ranking is great.

The other three guys are where I have quibbles.

OG was great for a rookie last season. He and Domantas Sabonis are close in total impact. Fine, you can keep OG on your list, but as I said, they were close in impact last year. Why is it so clear that OG will be a top-25 young player next season and Sabonis won’t?

The other two guys are where I get my jimmies rustled. Carter Jr. and Jackson Jr. look like incredible prospects. They both have a great chance to not just be better than Sabonis but be two of the leagues premier talents during their primes.

But that is far off. This list focuses on the coming season. And that is why I have a problem with their inclusion.

Rookies are usually bad. Last year’s exceptional rookie class was the exception, not the norm. In 2016-17, only two rookies had an above average impact leaguewide. It is rare to see young guys helping a team win in their first year.

That is why I think it is blasphemy to put Jackson Jr. and Carter Jr. over Sabonis in this list. Sabonis almost assuredly will be better than both of those guys next season. His passing, screening, defense around the rim, and overall basketball IQ make him one of the most effective young bigs in the game. That should continue next season. I demand a new list.

Thankfully, The Step Back made a list of the best guys who didn’t make the list. And we can see that Domantas Sabonis…

Didn’t make that list either? Okay, Indiana Pacers fan. Grab your pitchforks. We need a mob for this one.