Expectations for the Indiana Pacers Backcourt

After adding many players to the backcourt in the summer, it is important that we set expectations for a crowded group of Indiana Pacers players.

Ah, the most wonderful time of the year is upon us.  The leaves change color and the temperature slowly begins to trickle down (unless you’ve moved to Florida since last season and it’s still 95 with 8000 percent humidity).  Baseball is in the thick of the pennant race, football has begun, and basketball is on the horizon.  Yes, Indiana Pacers basketball is set to return soon, which gives every person from Indiana a reason to wake up in the morning.

With a new season comes heightened expectations for the Indiana Pacers, who are coming off a surprise season that ended a bit prematurely.  It seems as though it has been about a decade since LeBron James sent home Victor Oladipo and the boys.  Since then, the Pacers made some off-season moves, specifically changing their backcourt rotation.  What does this rotation look like and what should Pacers fans expect?

Off-Season Moves in the backcourt

The Pacers made a controversial move by allowing beloved guard Lance Stephenson to sign with the Lakers this summer.  Stephenson finished his second stint with the Pacers with a 9.2/5.2/2.9 line on 42.7 percent shooting from the field.  The Pacers let former second-round pick Joe Young walk to China, who never quite materialized into a role player.

With those moves, the Pacers countered by drafting Aaron Holiday from UCLA with the 23rd overall pick in this year’s draft.  They also signed former Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans, who is coming off several injury-riddled seasons.

A Look at the Depth Chart

Projected Starters:

PG: Darren Collison (12.4/2.6/5.3 on 49.5 2pt%/46.8 3pt%)

SG: Victor Oladipo (23.1/5.2/4.3 on 47.7/37.1)

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Going into last season, these two looked to be a formidable backcourt with plenty of speed.  While no one could have foreseen the offensive explosion Oladipo displayed last year, Collison’s renaissance year has been slept on too long.  Collison did not have nearly the volume Oladipo had, his efficiency was among league leaders in many categories.  In fact, he led the NBA in three-point percentage.

Oladipo is the superstar for this young and growing Pacers team.  The team lives and dies based on his performance (as evidenced by zero wins without Oladipo last season). There isn’t much more that can be said about him.

Projected Bench:

PG: Cory Joseph (7.9/3.2/3.2 on 42.4/35.3)

PG: Aaron Holiday (Rookie Season)

SG: Tyreke Evans (19.4/5.1/5.2 on 45.2/40)

Joseph is the only returning guard from last year’s bench.  He anchored an otherwise disjointed and oft-injured second rotation for the Pacers.  As a pure ball-movement guard, Joseph will be instrumental in helping Evans and Domantas Sabonis create offense while Oladipo and Myles Turner catch their breath.

Holiday will assume Joe Young’s former role as the owner of emergency minutes, albeit more effectively (the Pacers hope). How good he can be is yet to be seen, but he could be as useful, if not more useful than Young was.

Evans serves as the most exciting pickup of the summer for the Pacers, as they found another pure scorer.  Evans has the ability to create his own offense, something the second unit desperately needs. He could transform the entire second unit by being a more efficient Lance Stephenson.

Concerns

1. Can Collison repeat his 2017-2018 efficiency?

Collison set new career highs in just about every offensive efficiency category last season.  Among those are shooting percentages, as listed above, to go along with true shooting (61 percent) and effective shooting (57.1 percent).  These career highs were not particularly close to his previous highs.  At age 31 on the coming opening night, there should be a natural concern to see if Collison can repeat his hot hand from last year.

2. Can Evans stay healthy?

The only criticism of the signing of Evans comes from his long injury history.  Without getting too specific, Evans last played in over 60 games in a season back in 2014 as a member of the Pelicans.  If he cannot stay healthy, the burden falls on Holiday or newly acquired Doug McDermott to fill the void, which is not great.

3. Who should control the ball in the fourth quarter?

The obvious answer is Oladipo, but let’s look at this from the point guard lens.  Collison is the more sure hand looking at turnovers, but there is no doubt that Evans is the more lethal offensive force.  Head Coach Nate McMillan will work this out over the first several weeks, but this is certainly something to keep eyes on going into the season.

Strengths

1. Versatility

Three of the current Pacers’ guards averaged at least four assists per game, all while averaging double figures in scoring (Oladipo, Evans, Collison).  Not only can these three create their own scoring opportunities, but they can also set the table for a corner three from McDermott or Bojan Bogdanovic.  The aggressiveness of Evans and Oladipo should open up lanes for the bigs, Turner and Sabonis, to work the paint.  The addition of Evans will aid in the second unit floor spacing as a scoring threat and as a combo guard.

2. Upgrades Over Last Season

Despite the fan base’s sometimes toxic and blind love for Lance Stephenson, it’s hard to argue that a healthy Tyreke Evans is a significant upgrade over Born Ready.  For comparison, Stephenson’s turnover percentage last year was 14.7 percent, while Evans stood at 11.5 percent.  Offensive Box Plus/Minus told much of the same story, Evans was +4.4 per while Stephenson was -2.0 last season.

3. Speed and Pacing

I would venture to say that the Indiana Pacers have the fastest backcourt in the NBA going into the season.  In a league where point guards launch threes from Elon Musk’s Mars colonies, it is refreshing to see aggressive, high-octane guard play inside.  We know Oladipo is not afraid to go to the basket, but neither is Evans.  Check out this drive from the corner here:

Expectations

I do not expect the starting lineup to change much this season for the Pacers.  In a perfect world, Evans staying healthy would be enough to stop the bench woes that have plagued Indiana since the Paul George era.  Evans is imperative to getting Oladipo more rest throughout the year.  Where we might see a rotational change from last will be in late game situations.  McMillan last year would typically go with the hot hand, but I fully expect Oladipo to be paired with Evans in hopes to create more offense.

I would fully expect the offense to be carried early on by the backcourt of the Indiana Pacers.  They simply have the least amount of question marks of any position group heading into the season.  While the jury is still out on Turner, Sabonis, and McDermott’s production heading into training camp, the backcourt has been solidified by veteran guards who’s versatile game will bolster an already high-flying Pacers offense. It’s going to be fascinating to observe.