Nate McMillan and Mythical Unicorn Replacement Theory

While some critics believe replacing Nate McMillan would elevate the Indiana Pacers, I’d like to introduce the concept of Mythical Unicorn Replacement Theory.

I’ve touched on this before, but with Nate McMillan’s contract extension with the Indiana Pacers being finalized it came back to mind and inspired me to dig up an old unfinished draft and update it for today’s news.

We’re here to talk about

George Hill

Nate McMillan and Mythical Unicorn Replacement Theory. Much like the Mystery Box, the idea of the what ifs are absolutely intoxicating. One that usually presupposes that somehow, things couldn’t get worse, they only could get better.

As you may have gathered from the overused strikeout text joke, this idea once centered around George Hill and the Pacers point guard position. Back when the Pacers were battling the Miami Heat every season in the playoffs, some felt a better point guard could have carried Indiana past LeBron James and friends.

While that may be true, the reason I call this situation Mythical Unicorn Replacement Theory is that there are assumptions baked into the idea that replacing this one part is not only the answer but that it happens in isolation. Not only that but that the one person exists and available.

But before we dive into MURT, let’s talk about why the idea of letting his contract expire wasn’t a realistic outcome, anyway.

Why the Pacers weren’t going to replace Nate McMillan

We live in a world where a 48-win coach, one where he was expected to only get 30 or so wins, had some questioning if he deserved an extension. Despite a winning record (and perhaps why it’s better than a 93-82 is better than it looks), a large contingent of fans sees him as a negative.

How?

Nate’s only crime when taking over the job was how unexciting of a hire it was, and how Larry Bird’s logic behind it made little to no sense.

McMillan was handed a toxic situation with a roster that would see over half it’s members out of the NBA two seasons later. A 42-40 win season isn’t impressive but considering all that was going on that season, it isn’t a bad result either. McMillan made mistakes, but it’s hard to pin all of the team’s issues on McMillan.

A disappointing but explainable performance.

But last year’s 48-34 record in the regular season is worthy of praise for him. Kevin Pritchard put together a roster that was more talented than expected, but McMillan made sure they did more than just beat expectations. Along with All-Star Victor Oladipo, McMillan raised the stakes on this season.

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McMillan’s knack for finding the right roles for players — a more assistive Darren Collison and making Bojan Bogdanovic a reliable starter — were two big pieces of the puzzle last season. The front office assembles to the tools, but it was up to McMillan to maximize them.

That’s why winning 48 games this season is all but expected this upcoming season. Outside of the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics, no other team is definitively better than the Pacers on paper. The Philadelphia 76ers are in the same tier, but until we know how much better their youngest players are, it’s hard to say they will be better than Indiana.

That’s just the numbers.

McMillan has a track record of success in developing younger players. It doesn’t hurt that he played the same position as Oladipo, an added benefit when coaching.

On top of that, by all reports, he’s beloved by most his players. Creating a positive locker room helps make sure you’re getting the most out of the roster. It helps seemingly having a roster all on the same page now. While most of the roster is going into the last year of their contracts, the chemistry around the team keeps them focused. Players are still going to worry a little about what’s next for them, but there isn’t the same vibe as there was two seasons ago.

And how bad would it have looked if Indiana didn’t extend McMillan’s contract? He exceeded expectations and is supported by his players in the locker room.

You want to make sure every player and coach left feels like there is zero loyalty? A defacto firing of McMillan after this upcoming season would have done the trick.

The Mythical Unicorn Replacement Theory

So let’s throw out all of the reasons why letting McMillan walk was never going to happen and focus on what the Pacers would do after that. And since we can’t predict the future, we’ll look at this current offseason.

Which coach that isn’t a retread — Stan Van Gundy, Mike Budenholzer, Steve Clifford, David Fizdale, and Dwane Casey — is a guaranteed improvement of McMillan?

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Would Lloyd Pierce, Igor Kokoskov, James Borrego, J. B. Bickerstaff, or Nick Nurse push the Pacers to new heights? All of those are first-time NBA coaches, and in three cases, their first times as head coaches.

That was the market for NBA coaches this offseason; a series of potentially interesting retreads — I’m an SVG fan — and unproven younger coaches. You could take a swing on a college coach, but are you getting a Fred Hoiberg or a Brad Stevens?

Ah, Brad Stevens, the prodigal son of many Hoosiers fans. Everyone wants to assume whoever Indiana hired will be Stevens. Somehow Indiana was supposed to hire him during the peak of Frank Vogel’s career in 2013 while the Pacers were going to the Eastern Conference Finals. Some suggest the Pacers let him slip out from under them despite the fact the team was the best it had been since 2000.

The unreality of some fan’s hopes aside, Stevens is the exception in many cases. While he was given the talent to work with, he’s exceeding expectations. It’s easy to look at him and think any talented young college coach could have done the same thing, but if that were the case Stevens wouldn’t be special now, wouldn’t he?

That’s Mythical Unicorn Replacement Theory.

It’s the assumption that not only is there a coach or player out there that could improve the Pacers, but it could be done with little or no cost. There wouldn’t be locker room issues, there wouldn’t be bad chemistry, and the coach would fit right in with the current players.

Chances are, that coach doesn’t exist. That coach is mythical. That coach is a unicorn.

Are there more talented coaches than Nate McMillan? Sure, Gregg Popovich exists. But it isn’t as if he was holding up a sign asking for the Pacers to free him from years of success with the San Antonio Spurs.

So this supposed replacement for McMillan is somehow proven, perfect for team chemistry, and just waiting to be hired.

That doesn’t mean the Pacers should be paralyzed by fear and never consider replacing McMillan if the situation calls for it. But the idea that McMillan doesn’t deserve the extension and there is a coach the Pacers care hire that all but guarantees an improvement likely doesn’t exist.

The reality of the situation

If Indiana didn’t have hopes of deep playoff runs over the next few seasons, taking a flyer on a young coach or giving an experience one a second chance might make sense. But that’s not where the Pacers are at right now.

The Pacers plan on winning games and building off last year’s success. Nate McMillan was part of it.

Unless the Pacers wanted to send a message that 48 unexpected wins weren’t enough to earn you another year or two on the job, keeping McMillan was the logical and right choice.

Unless the Pacers wanted to send a message that 48 unexpected wins weren’t enough to earn you another year or two on the job, keeping McMillan was the logical and right choice.

Does he need to improve some in-game situations and rest Oladipo and Thaddeus Young more? Yes. He isn’t perfect. He needs to learn from the mistakes he made last season.

But he’s earned the right to fix those mistakes. He earned the right to show he can take this team past the first round of the playoffs.

Nate McMillan doesn’t need your love and respect because he got himself a contract extension. The only opinions that really matter are the players and the rest of the organization, which all seem pleased with McMillan’s coaching through two seasons.

It’s up to him to prove he was worth it.

Don’t go chasing unicorns, stick to the 48-win coach that you’re used to.