What does Clint Capela’s new contract mean for Myles Turner?

Clint Capela just received a monster contract from the Houston Rockets. What does that mean for the Indiana Pacers and Myles Turner?

Myles Turner is currently eligible for a contract extension for the Indiana Pacers. There have not been any rumors surrounding that particular topic – both the team and Turner may not be interested in an extension and it is possible both parties would rather just negotiate a deal next summer when Turner is a restricted free agent.

Pacers fans have been looking ahead at Turner’s free agency for years – both in an attempt to speculate what contract he will get next and to view what the next era of Pacers basketball will look like. Myles is the longest tenured Pacer, and he represented the pathway out of the Paul George era before Victor Oladipo rose to stardom.

But what kind of contract will Turner get next summer? The truth is, we have no idea. Before this past season, many were guessing something near a max contract. Now, most have tempered those expectations. Thankfully, a reasonable barometer for Turner’s contract has appeared in the form of Clint Capela.

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Capela just signed a five-year contract with the Houston Rockets that has a total value between $80 and $90 million, dependant on incentives. That’s a lot of smackeroos, but for Capela, it is more than worth it. Capela amassed a PIPM of +3.04 last season, which ranked him as the 24th most impactful player in the NBA. He is a huge part of what the Rockets do.

Capela is certainly not one of the 24 most talented players in the league. But the things he does well are exactly what the Houston Rockets need him to do, and that is what allows him to be the 24th most impactful player in the association. He is a huge piece for Houston, and securing him for $18 million a season is a bargain for the Rox.

Insert Myles Turner, who is a free agent next summer. In this same stat, PIPM, Turner ranked 81st in the league. Being the 81st most impactful player is great and a big part of why the Pacers were so successful last year. Retaining Turner is a huge step in ensuring the success of the team long term.

But 81 is much lower than 24, meaning Capela is more impactful on the basketball court. Capela isn’t necessarily better at the sport, he is just more impactful to winning in his role than Turner is in his. That is a key distinction. But regardless, Capela is worth more money on a per year basis because he is a more impactful player.

Unfortunately for Capela, he was a free agent at the worst time. Teams didn’t have a ton of money to spend this summer, and the market quickly dried up for Capela’s services. Compound that fact with the reality that he was a restricted free agent, and it is transparent why Capela was able to be gotten for $18 million per season.

If Myles Turner had been a free agent this summer, he would have gotten less money than Capela just did. He’s a less impactful player and he isn’t on Clint’s level. But Turner has an advantage that Capela didn’t have. Myles Turner is a free agent in the summer of 2019 when teams will have more money to spend.

The salary cap is projected to jump up nearly $7 million next summer. Additionally, some of the terrible contracts that were signed in the summer of 2016 will expire at the conclusion of this season. Those two things happening in tandem means many teams could have significant cap space, and that could create a bidding war for the most valuable players.

Assuming Turner improves, or even just stagnates honestly, he will be one of those players who may get caught in a bidding war. That would be great for him. And the value that he ultimately gets on a per year basis depends a lot on how he performs this season.

But Capela getting only $18 million combined with Turner being a restricted free agent could depreciate the market for Turner somewhat. Are teams going to throw Clint Capela money at Myles Turner, a statistically less impactful player, when it is likely the Pacers would match that offer anyway?

Probably not, which could drive Turner’s price down somewhat. Meanwhile, why would the Pacers be aggressive in giving Myles Turner big money when they could be bidding against nobody at a big price? They likely wouldn’t be.

When you peel back the layers, Turner’s free agency is pretty interesting. Sure, more teams will have money and could want him. But Capela just set his (and other talented young centers) market at a lower value than it was anticipated to be.

Therein lies what needs to be balanced. What is a bigger difference – the dichotomy in impact between Capela and Turner, or the contrast in free agent markets that the two players go contract hunting in? If you ask me, the differences are offsetting and equal, and thus could create a scenario where the two players get very similar contracts.

Of course, there is the scenario where Turner improves drastically and becomes worth more money than Capela. If that happens, then this entire discussion is pointless. But if Turner’s improvements are marginal, or non-existent, Capela’s deal could be a good barometer for Turner’s. And giving Myles Turner $18 million per year would be just fine if you ask me. The Indiana Pacers should be happy with that.