Free agency is upon us. The Indiana Pacers enter it with the band (mostly) back together and significant cap space. Now, who to spend it on…
When late Saturday night turns into early Sunday morning phones will begin to light up heralding news from NBA insiders around the league. And the Pacers will be at the center of it, or at least they could be, nay should be.
There are 11 teams with easy paths to double-digit cap space, but they aren’t on equal footing. Atlanta, Chicago, and Sacramento aren’t threats to spend lucratively and would be better bets to absorb other team’s bloated contracts in exchange for draft capital.
Houston will have space, but also have several key free agents to bring back. The Lakers (to a significant degree) and Philadelphia (to a lesser) are big fish hunting. Dallas needs -and will control- the market on centers (they are really interested in DeAndre Jordan), Phoenix needs a point guard, as does Orlando whose space disappears if they re-up with Aaron Gordon.
That leaves Utah and Indiana most capable of reaping in a harvest among this year’s second-tier free agents and below. Especially while Cleveland, Philadelphia, the Lakers and whoever are preoccupied with LeBron James and Paul George.
Keeping the band together…mostly
After the draft, Kevin Pritchard spoke of six to seven core players that he believed deserved another season together. The identity of those six to seven core players is pretty clear now: Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph, the recently opted-in Thad Young, and not Lance Stephenson. One could probably assume that draftee Aaron Holiday is going to be part of the mix, likewise T.J. Leaf.
Now, just because those nine seem to be destined to be Pacers next season, that doesn’t mean that they are impervious to being dealt if the right deal comes along.
However, absent of that ideal deal Pritchard’s “they mean too much to us,” comment will carry a lot of weight.
The remaining players could all be moved in order to free up the most cap space possible. The number $20M is widely reported by both Pritchard and Adrian Wojnarowski and that number is basically right, it’s more likely to be $19.3M or $19.7M. Close enough.
So, currently, without renouncing or cutting anyone, the pacers are at $2.3 million in space.
— Tony East (@TonyREast) June 28, 2018
Renouncing Lance + Booker + GR3, cutting Jefferson, declining Joe Young, and waiving Poythress gets them to $19.7 mil in space.
The Pacers will not just enter free agency with cap space, Pritchard will also have the room exception at his disposal, which is another $4M plus.
That doesn’t sound like a lot, but this year could be different. With the vast majority of the league stuck with only their exceptions to offer, effectively have north of $24M to spend will be awfully compelling to a prospective free agent. That could be to three new players, and three good ones at that.
Whose available with the money?
We’ll talk about Aaron Gordon in a minute. But if you look at how the Pacers are currently constructed, there are sizable holes behind Oladipo and Bogdanovic.
- PG: Darren Collison ($10M), Cory Joseph ($7.9M), Aaron Holiday ($2M)
- SG: Victor Oladipo ($21M)
- SF: Bojan Bogdanovic ($10.5M)
- PF: Thad Young ($13.8M), T.J. Leaf ($2.4M), Alex Poythress ($1.5M), Alize Johnson
- C: Myles Turner ($3.4M), Domantas Sabonis ($2.7), Al Jefferson ($10M), Ike Anigbogu ($1.4M)
If the Pacers wanted to target a restricted free agent like Boston’s Marcus Smart they have the financial capabilities to do it. Smart believes that he is worth more than $14M, and if the Pacers came anywhere close to that number it might be too rich for the Celtics.
On the other hand, that is a lot of money spent on a player who is better served as a wildcat off the bench, also known as the Lance role. While offensively limited, few are more dynamic on defense, but what is that worth to you? Would you spend more than half of your cap space?
A team like Phoenix could offer the money and a starting role but there are two hang-ups. The first is that Phoenix isn’t very good and that’s not going to change next year.
The second is that they could also go after other defensive-minded guards like Dante Exum or Avery Bradley both would be cheaper than Smart or hit the trade market for a well-rounded point guard.
Other rumored wings are Tyreke Evans, Will Barton and restricted free agent Zach LaVine. All three would be painful loses to their current teams.
Memphis could’ve traded Evans at the deadline an opted against it. Besides drafting Michael Porter Jr. (whose injuries may keep him off the court next year) the Nuggets wing depth is nonexistent and want him back. LaVine’s last season was mostly a wash and was the Chicago’s centerpiece for trading away Jimmy Butler. Chicago has more cap space than Indiana does, might as well keep him.
Among these three, Evans would probably make the most sense. The second unit needs an offensive engine, which Evans is.
He also played 20 of his 52 games, for Memphis, from the bench. Signing Evans wouldn’t come without trepidation, his career has been up and down, but he’d be a cheaper option than Smart and provide more offensive impact.
Trevor Ariza is available and could go one of two ways. Houston will definitely want him back, and baring something drastic would probably start again on a championship-caliber team.
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But he won’t break the bank doing so. Indiana could offer him far more money. Other veteran wing free agents would be Philadelphia’s J.J. Redick, San Antonio’s Rudy Gay, Miami’s Wayne Ellington, and Brooklyn’s Joe Harris.
Another intriguing option who be a player we’ve talked about before, Jerami Grant. As Holiday was a move with an eye on the future, Grant could be likewise. Thad Young is now on an expiring contract, Grant was the fourth best player on the Thunder last year and has a similar skill set to Young. Grant would boost the Pacers’ frontcourt while being incubated for a bigger role in the future. It’s basically the same spot he would be in if he returned to Oklahoma City.
There he is stuck behind Carmelo Anthony with an option to start next year. The taxed-out Thunder might not be able to pay him a salary that Indiana could easily afford.
Back to Aaron Gordon
The signing of Thad Young makes Indiana’s pursuit seem less likely on the surface. While Young’s return still leaves Indiana with enough cap space to sign the Magic restricted free agent, the Pacers already have a power forward. Indiana isn’t going to spent nearly $20M on a backup, Gordon’s likely not going to sign the offer sheet if that’s his role. It also seems cruel and unlikely to demote Young to the bench to make room for Gordon.
Another hiccup is pride. It’s not a stretch to imagine that Orlando would be less than thrilled to see another Orlando Magic leave and thrive in Indiana blue and gold.
But…
While there is a salary crunch this offseason, that will not be the case next offseason or in 2020. The number of teams (including the Pacers) that will have money to spend will greatly increase. Transforming the team-centric market of 2018 in a player-centric market in the next two off-seasons. Now might be the time to strike even with Thad opting back in.
Signing Gordon would be a big and bold move. He’s far from a guarantee but he’s coming off a career year and will be 23 next season.
It would cost nearly the entirety of Indiana’s cap space (4 years, $76M- $80M, if not more) to make it work, and it would have to be appealing to Gordon. Orlando isn’t making the playoffs any time soon, and Indiana is trending up.
The more likely scenario would be digging into that list of six or seven (key word being “or”) to complete a sign and trade for Gordon. Any situation would likely involve Young, or Joseph plus the Pacers 2019 first rounder.
If Orlando doesn’t want Young or Joseph, they could work in a third team like Phoenix who needs a point guard and has a glut of younger players that might appeal to Orlando.
Next: Dear Pacers, please pass on Rodney Hood
Whatever the Pacers do, the offseason is here. Stay tuned Pacer fans, and watch your phones.