Matthes’ Manifesto: The Pacers have options in free agency
The Wing
There is a decent amount of wing talent available this off-season, including Indiana’s own Glenn Robinson III who shouldn’t be overlooked.
There are rising players like Joe Harris (SG Nets, 27 yrs, 10.8, 49/42/83, 3.3 Rebs, $1.5M cap hold). Harris had a revelatory season with Brooklyn. Is he a starter on a really good team? Doubtful, but maybe. He moves well both off the ball and on defense. He’s a knock-down shooter who’s only real flaw is he has a tendency to drive baseline into two defenders, jump before anyone is open, then promptly turns it over. It’s humorous when it happens because it’s infrequent, but he does it enough that it can’t totally be ignored either. A bigger issue is Brooklyn really likes him, and he’s saying all the right things about wanting to stay there too, so it might be difficult to snatch him away.
There are enigmas like Mario Hezonja (G/F Magic, 23 yrs, 9.6, 44/34/82, 3.7 Rebs, $5.2M cap hold) who could either be really promising or really misguided additions. Hezonja moves alright but has never been a league-average three-point shooter. Does that mean he’ll never be that? No, but it also doesn’t mean he’ll ever master it either. Patrick McCaw (SG Warriors, 23 yrs, 4.0, 41/24/77, +0.7 A/T, $1.7M cap hold) is in the same boat, for different reasons. McCaw’s stock is high in part because he plays for the Warriors. His numbers don’t scream future star. But how could they since it’s hard to get enough playing time on that team?
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There are players on the downside of their careers like Danny Green (SG Spurs, 31 yrs, 8.6, 39/36/77, 3 Rebs, $10M Player option) who has consistently gotten worse over the last four years and then cratered in the playoffs scoring a total of 21 points on 26.7% shooting in five quick games against Golden State. It’s a similar case for Jamal Crawford (SG T-Wolves, 38 yrs, 10.3, 42/33/90, +1.1 A/T, $5.2M cap hold) who’s scoring average has fallen steadily from18.6 ppg in 2014 to 10.3 this year, his lowest since his third year in the league. His shots just aren’t falling like they used too.
And players that are on the downside of their career that still have tread on their tires like Trevor Ariza (SF Rockets, 33 yrs, 11.7, 41/37/85, 4.4 Rebs, $12.9M cap hold) who is as steady as they come. Ariza’s been a starter for the last five years, scoring between 11.7 and 12.8 ppg in each of the last four years. He’s proven himself eminently valuable to the Rockets, it would take a lot for him to leave.
Some players have been successful role players, but will always be role players like Pat Connaughton (G/F Blazers, 26 yrs, 5.4, 42/35/84, 2 Rebs, $1.8M cap hold). Or players that have inflated reputations, like Will Barton (G/F Nuggets, 28 yrs, 15.7, 45/37/81, 5 Rebs, $6.7M cap hold). Barton gets viewed as an up-and-coming young player. He’s one year younger than Bogdanovic and nowhere close to him, shooting-wise.
Barton does defend and rebound better, but not by enough to shift the scales in his favor. He averaged 24 ppg against Indiana last year, which might be why Pacers’ fans are so high on him. Add it all up and he’s an inconsistent player who might be a valuable backup but don’t expect too much more.
Then there is Wayne Ellington (SG Heat, 31 yrs, 11.2, 41/39/86, +0.3 A/T, $8.2M cap hold). Ellington has one marketable skill, he shoots, and he’s really good at it. Since he’s undersized and one-dimensional he’ll be a bench player for the rest of his career, but that’s not a knock against him. Miami’s unleashed his bench shooting and he’s made 376 threes in that two-year stretch.
The question for Ellington isn’t his ability to deliver, he -like Thad Young- wants stability. After playing for seven teams in six years, who can blame him. Whichever ever team can find the balance between role, price and amount of years will probably land him.