Why the Pacers should not sign Julius Randle

Many Indiana Pacers fans seem interested in the idea of signing Lakers forward Julius Randle this summer. Let’s pump the brakes on that proposition.

The Indiana Pacers could have quite a lot of cap space this summer. They are a young team looking to add more young and talented players that can help them be a title contender for years to come. The Los Angeles Lakers are a team looking to clear cap space to sign big-time free agents, and thus Julius Randle is expendable to their franchise. The overlapping goals for the organizations makes the “Julius Randle to the Pacers” idea an easy one to land on, and it is one that many Pacers fans seem to be enamored with.

But let’s not be so hasty.

Randle is certainly talented. He is coming off a season in which he posted a stat line of 16.1 points per game, eight rebounds, and 2.6 assists; solid numbers for a 23-year-old. Additionally encouraging is that Randle has improved every season of his career on both ends of the floor, meaning that he could be one hell of a player very soon.

There is just one problem. He accumulates most of those impressive stats when he is playing at the position he is best suited for: center.

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That is where his fit with the Pacers becomes challenging. They already have two talented centers, and both of them are younger than Julius Randle. Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis both have years under contract, too. More on that later.

Randle was still very good when he was getting minutes at the five. In just over 1000 minutes at center (Randle on, Brook Lopez/Ivica Zubac/Thomas Bryant/Andrew Bogut off), Randle poured in 674 points in 2233 possessions, good for 30.4 points per 100 possessions. Victor Oladipo scored 34 points per 100 possessions, for reference. So yeah, Randle could score. He did it efficiently too, shooting 59.3 percent in these minutes. He was awesome at scoring the ball.

On top of that, he grabbed 14.42 rebounds per 100 possessions (roughly Trevor Booker level), dished out 4.3 assists (Sabonis level), and swatted 1.4 blocks (Victor Oladipo levels). He was a force to be reckoned with down low when he didn’t have to share the paint.

But like every player with flaws, Randle wasn’t perfect in these minutes. He committed 7.35 fouls per 100 possessions at center, over a full foul more than the hack-happy Sabonis. He also coughed up 4.25 turnovers, which would have put him right up there with Oladipo for the highest number on the Pacers.

Additionally, the Lakers stunk on defense in these minutes, giving up 2449 points on 2258 possession, which equates to a 108.5 defensive rating. That would have ranked 25th in the league as a team. They gave up 36.8 percent of their looks at the rim, and opponents sank 61.9 percent of these shots, which points more fingers at Randle being a big part of the defensive problem on these units.

So when Randle is playing the position that he is best suited for, he scores a lot of points and grabs a lot of rebounds, but he also allows a lot of points and coughs the ball up a lot. The Lakers were a -8 during these minutes. The Lakers were not a great team, so -8 in over 1000 minutes is actually pretty solid. But Randle’s intangibles and stats point to a player who played solidly, not great or terrible, during these minutes.

Then there are his minutes at the Power Forward position. These are, uh, not good. The Lakers were a -74 in 1102 minutes when Randle shared the floor with another big, and Randle’s stats weren’t great.

He shot only 52.4 percent at the four. His turnovers and fouls per 100 possessions were both somehow higher than when he was at the five while his assists and rebounds weren’t much better. Basically, he went from a solid player to a meh player just based on who was in lineups with him.

And that is where the problem lies with Randle and the Pacers. He is pretty good at the five. He’s actually very good at the five. But he’s not good at the four.

The Pacers have guys who are as good, if not better, than Randle at center. Playing Randle at the five means Domas or Myles isn’t playing. If Randle were to instead to play with either Turner or Sabonis, he would be playing at the four, where he has historically been a worse player. The positional fit just doesn’t make sense.

And then there is the matter of the contract. This is probably the biggest reason to not have Randle on Indiana. He is a restricted free agent, meaning the Lakers can match any offer given to him. In order to pry him away from LA, it would take an overpay.

Randle is great, but he isn’t a great three-point shooter and can’t really protect the rim. He isn’t a perfect fit for the modern game. Do you want to overpay a guy who doesn’t fit the modern game and doesn’t help the Pacers AND takes away minutes from the Pacers two most promising young players?

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To me, that sounds unappealing. If the plan is to add Randle to play center and also move either Sabonis or Tuner for another piece, then maybe I could buy in. But simply adding Randle to play next to either of those guys is foolish and a bad use of money. He might be a great player, but the Pacers money would go way farther if they spent it elsewhere.