Aaron Gordon could benefit Pacers long-term

It may hurt at first, but shaking things up and signing Aaron Gordon could be the key to getting the Pacers to the next level.

In a league where crazy things happen all the time, it says a lot how much intrigue there seems to be in what the Indiana Pacers do this offseason. After taking LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first round, many are interested to see how they respond to a season full of overachievement.

With a ton of non-guaranteed money on the books, Indiana has the ability to open up enough cap space to sign a free agent to a max deal—and have a little more after that if they wanted.

A free agent that should demand max or near-max money comes from the restricted variety—Aaron Gordon.

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Back in February, Sean Deveney of Sporting News linked Gordon to the Pacers—saying Indiana intends to look into the restricted free agency market in hopes of adding young talent to its current core. Deveney didn’t directly state that Indiana had interest in Gordon, however.

By the time of the NBA Draft, it will have been four months since that report. That is a lot of time in a fast-moving NBA world, meaning either the Pacers could have lost interest in Aaron Gordon (if they had any in the first place) or other suitors may have emerged.

Of the suitors stated in Deveney’s article, though, Indiana looks to be the most appealing. In terms of winning, at least. Dallas and Phoenix were also listed, both of which finished lower in the standings than Gordon’s Magic team this season.

If Gordon signs an offer sheet with Indiana or any other team, however, Orlando does have matching rights—giving them the last say in whether or not Gordon wears a different uniform next season.

The question for Indiana, though, is whether they should even sign Gordon to an offer sheet if given the chance.

Our Tony East recently argued against the idea of signing Gordon, making some fair points. I will do my best to rip his argument to shreds.

A major question that comes up when debating whether or not to sign Gordon is what happens with Thaddeus Young. Signing Gordon for as much money as he will command (more on that later), it would be almost impossible to keep Young around. It wouldn’t be fair to bring him off the bench, so a trade would be necessary for both players to be appeased.

That brings up another question: is Gordon an actual upgrade over Young? In short, no…right now. Signing Gordon would be a move with the long-term in mind, as he is just 22 years old (!!) and nowhere near his peak.

Young, on the other hand, will turn 30 over the summer and has just a handful of productive years left in the league. Indiana could certainly have Thad back next year—assuming he picks up his player option, which looks likely—and then re-sign him at or below what his market will command next summer.

That is not a bad plan. But is it the best plan?

While Indiana may be high off of a season in which they outperformed even their own expectations so greatly, the organization has to realize that this group can only go so far. If there is a chance to upgrade at a position, they should look into it.

In this specific instance, there are other factors to account for. When upgrading at a position, that typically means paying for it. Young’s player option for next season is $13.7 million. It is tough to predict how the market will develop for Gordon, but it seems likely that he will draw offers anywhere from $20 million annually up to his max of about $25 million.

That $6-11 million difference between Young and Gordon’s salary may or may not matter, depending on 1) how much better Gordon plays than Young next season and 2) whom they spend the difference in salary on. Both of those things are impossible to predict at this time.

The only way to determine whether the move is worth it or not is to determine whether Gordon is worth—or will be worth—the money he will be receiving.

To be short, Gordon is not a $20 million player as it currently stands—and he’s certainly not a $25 million player. But that’s the way the restricted free agency market crumbles. Players receive bloated offers, as that is the only way for teams to get said player’s original team to consider letting them walk.

In time, however, Gordon may be a $20 million player, and he may even be a $25 million player. That is another part of restricted free agency: sometimes teams pay for what they expect the player to eventually become, not what he is today (looking at you, Andrew Wiggins).

What is Gordon today?

Offense

Here’s the skinny: he averaged 17.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and one steal per game on .434/.336/.698 shooting splits this season.

The counting stats look nice. But it is also true: Aaron Gordon is not a very efficient player. That is not entirely his fault, however. Here is how his offense broke down from this season:

Here is how it compares to Young’s offense:

As you can see, Gordon was actually more efficient than Young in a variety of areas. The only two play types in which Gordon used more than 20 percent of his possessions on were transition and spot up. Gordon didn’t rank well in either, finishing in the 23rd and 51st percentiles, respectively.

If Aaron Gordon were to come to Indiana, he would likely continue to use up a large chunk of his possessions in transition and on spot-ups.

As Kevin Pritchard said in his end-of-season press conference, a stretch-four would make Indiana’s offense a tough defend.

Gordon, right now, is not a stretch-four. Not even a little. However, like Victor Oladipo, Gordon has improved upon his three-point percentage every season. After hitting just 27.1 percent of his three-point attempts in his rookie season, Gordon finished this season at 33.6 percent, a tidy enough number.

That figure is still not where you want it to be, but he did shoot 39.2 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts this season. What brought down Gordon’s overall percentage was the 1.8 pull-up attempts per game, in which he shot just 21.9 percent. With Oladipo penetrating and collapsing the defense, you would think Gordon gets a ton of open looks off the catch—and pulls up less frequently.

What is worrisome is how he performed in transition. With an aggressive defensive scheme and quick backcourt in Darren Collison and Oladipo, Indiana ran in transition quite a bit. It ended up being 16.1 percent of their offense, which ranked ninth in the league. They scored 1.14 points per possession in transition, which ranked fifth.

An element Aaron Gordon could bring to the power forward position that Indiana doesn’t currently have is an off-the-dribble game:

Gordon’s quickness allows him to get around a lot of defenders closing out on his shot. If he continues to improve as a shooter, the close-outs will be harder—and Gordon will have even more space in front of him.

Another possible element to that is passing. When attacking the rim, Gordon focuses on scoring most of the time. He’s trying to get a bucket or draw a foul. Defenses will scramble when an athletic ball-handler is barrelling towards the rim, though, opening up weakside shooters. If Gordon can improve at reading defenses and making those extra passes, he will have a pretty impressive all-around offensive game—whether that be in Indiana, Orlando, or elsewhere.

Gordon finished this season with an 11.1 assist percentage, which put him in the 71st percentile among bigs (per Cleaning The Glass). That is another number you hope to see rise up, but it wouldn’t be a bad number to build off of in a new ecosystem.

A part of the offense the Magic underutilized Gordon in was on the pick-and-roll. As shown in the offensive play type breakdown above, Aaron Gordon was actually used as the ballhandler more than the roller on the pick-and-roll.

A springy forward with the size to set good screens, Gordon should be the roll man a lot more often:

This specific play is more of a pseudo pick-and-roll, but it still ends with Gordon as the finisher. Elfrid Payton gets stuck with both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in front of him, so he dishes to Nikola Vucevic who has a clearer passing lane to find Gordon.

With either Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner, both good passers, Indiana could go to this exact action if Oladipo gets trapped. Gordon could fit in just fine.

Defense

Part of the intrigue in Aaron Gordon as a prospect is as a defender. Being athletic and quick at 6-foot-9, along with a near-7-foot wingspan, there is no reason for Gordon to not be a good defender. The tools don’t always translate, though.

It’s unfair to say the tools haven’t translated for Gordon yet; he has some bright spots. But there are certainly areas where he needs to improve:

For comparison once again, here are Young’s numbers on defense:

It is hard to quantify defensive ability into statistics, but Synergy does perhaps a better job than anyone. Young has shown his value on defense time and time again, even though the numbers may not show it.

The same could be said about Aaron Gordon. And, once again, playing in a new system with better players may help him on that end.

He has his struggles as a perimeter defender, but Indiana plays a more aggressive style that may better suit Gordon’s ability. Myles Turner’s rim protection behind him, as opposed to Vucevic’s, will also be beneficial.

Shelling out the contract that Gordon will receive is a risk, but where are teams that don’t take risks? If Pritchard and friends believe Gordon has a lot of untapped potential, they have the funds to bring him on board and help him reach that ceiling.

Overpaying for average production can kill a team, but Gordon has taken year-over-year strides offensively and may just need the right system to become a good-to-very-good defender.

Next: 2017-18 Player Review: Victor Oladipo

Maybe Oladipo was the first and last Orlando player to evolve into an All-Star after becoming a Pacer. But what is stopping Indiana from turning over another Magic stone? Aaron Gordon could be that stone.