The case against bringing Aaron Gordon to the Indiana Pacers

Many fans of the Indiana Pacers are interested in signing Aaron Gordon this summer. That may not be the best idea.

The Indiana Pacers are a young and talented basketball team. Aaron Gordon is a young and talented basketball player. The Pacers could have a sizeable amount of salary cap space this summer. Put two and two together, and it is obvious why many fans of the Blue and Gold are interested in signing Gordon to a contract.

But let’s pause. While Gordon is talented, what he offers may not be what the Pacers want, and it likely will cost more than Gordon could be worth.

At the end of season presser, President of Basketball Operations Kevin Pritchard mentioned something to the effect of wanting a stretch-four. “If you had a real shooting four, a real stretch-four to put out there with the same team, It’s a tough defend.”

Aaron Gordon is a lot of things. A stretch-four is not one of them. This past season, Gordon set a career high three-point percentage… at 33.6 percent. Over the second half of the 58 games that AG played in 2017-18′, he hit just 27.4 percent of his deep balls:

That is not pretty. But one could argue that Gordon is an improving three-point shooter who could thrive in Indiana. He has steadily improved his long ranger throughout his career, and he could get reasonably get his percentage up to league average in the crossroads of America.

Okay, fine, but then there is defense.

Part of what makes Thaddeus Young so useful here in Indiana is his effort on the less glamorous end of the floor. The Pacers mailed in a 104.2 defensive rating with Thad on the floor this season, roughly the level of the seventh best defense in the league. With Gordon on the court in Orlando, the Magic had a defensive rating of 107.1, which would have been in the bottom half of the league for a whole team.

But I get it, defensive rating is a team stat. Let’s look at Gordon’s defensive play-type profile for some relevant play types.

When defending isolations, Gordon was in the 43rd percentile league-wide allowing .92 points per possession. He has trouble with lateral movement and staying in front of guys, which is strange given his athleticism. James Johnson got him twice, badly, in the same game:

Defending pick and rolls was a mixed bag. Gordon was in the 88.5 percentile when defending the roll man, but the 28th percentile when defending the ball handler. One of those numbers is fantastic. One is ugly. Both of them are related to his inability to move well laterally on D. The Pacers switch pick-and-rolls on D an average amount of times compared to other teams, so Gordon would be in both situations roughly half the time in Indiana. This would produce essentially average results.

Defending post ups is where Gordon thrives; he ranked in the 97.9 percentile defending post-ups. His lateral movement challenges are mitigated when he is defending in the post. He uses his overwhelming 6’9 frame and freakish athleticism to smother opponents down low and end possessions emphatically:

The final important defensive play type: handoffs. And Gordon is outstanding here too, ranking in the 95.8 percentile last season. Between this and his post-ups, Gordon is excellent at certain aspects of defending.

But his lackluster isolation D and his average PnR defense still matter, and they drag him down on this end of the floor. While he is still likely a positive for the Pacers on that end were he to be on the team, it probably isn’t an overwhelming plus. It definitely isn’t any better than what you are getting now from Thaddeus Young.

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Given he isn’t a sensational shooter either, Gordon would have to be excellent as an overall scorer to make up for his deficiencies. He shot 43.4 percent last year, a career-low. While he shot well at the rim, he stunk it up from the mid-range, the Pacers bread and butter, finishing just 28.7 of his looks from 3-10 feet, 38 percent from 10-16 feet, and 27.3 percent on long twos. Woof.

Gordon is certainly a talented player, but a lot of the things he is good at are things the Pacers don’t really need and many of the things he isn’t good at are very important in Nate McMillan’s system. But even if he could improve and fit better just by not being on the Magic (which happens a lot), there is still the matter of his contract.

Aaron Gordon will be a restricted free agent, meaning the Orlando Magic can match any contract offer made for him. Because of this, it will likely take an overpay to pry Gordon away from Orlando.

Let’s hypothetically (and, conservatively) pretend that AG would pull in $20 million per year. This would require the Pacers to have $20 million of cap space. That number is certainly possible, but if the Pacers have that much space, that likely means either Thad Young opted out of his player option or the Pacers cut ties with one of Bojan Bogdanovic or Darren Collison.

Sure, losing those guys may be worth getting Gordon. But if you snag Gordon, then you are out of cap space and you can’t add anyone else to the rotation. Is adding Gordon for an overpay worth losing a different starter and cap flexibility Given that his fit isn’t great, the answer might be no.

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Plus, Aaron Gordon wears number 00, which is gross. Of course, that doesn’t actually matter. But everything else does. AG might be a sexy name and a flashy player, but he seems to be a bad overall fit with the Pacers. Maybe I’m completely off base and Gordon would be a perfect fit. That’s certainly possible. But I am not even close to sold. Thankfully, I don’t have to make the decisions. In Pritch we trust.