Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are both playing great basketball of late. How many minutes should the Pacers play each big in Game 6 (and even Game 7)?
Through three games of the Indiana Pacers series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, one thing was obvious: Myles Turner was outplaying the hell out of Domantas Sabonis.
In Game 1, Sabonis was somehow a -9 despite the Pacers winning by 18 points. In Game 2, he missed six out of eight shots. In Game 3, he put up a measly 7/1/1 stat line in 24 minutes. The impact was not there from Sabonis. Meanwhile, Myles Turner was hitting his shots, playing solid D at the rim, and setting good screens. He was the far superior player.
But Game 4 marked a turning point for the Lithuanian big. After making 10 shots in the first three games combined, he hit nine in this one alone. His 19 points led the Pacers roster, and he even bombed a three. But Turner also played well, dropping in 17 points of his own and sparking a 10-2 run to start the 3rd quarter.
Given that Turner had played well in all four games and Sabonis had played well in just one, Nate McMillan opted to go to Turner down the stretch of the game. With a one-point lead, Myles checked into the game for Domas. The Pacers ultimately lost by four. How much of this blown lead was on Myles was hard to say, but the decision was controversial. Regardless, with a tally of four good games to one, it made sense to continue rolling with Turner for Game 5.
But in this game, Sabonis finally took over. Myles committed five fouls and only played 20 minutes. Domas played 33 minutes and poured in 22 points to go along with five rebounds. He was everywhere, and even played solid defense on LeBron James when called upon to do so:
Yeah, LeBron hit the shot. But that was still awesome defense, and Sabonis continued to be impactful over the course of the game.
His 22 points were a team high, and he was getting them from all over the court. He hit a turnaround fadeaway jumper that we have never seen in his repertoire before, and he had his baby hook working:
Sabonis played better than Turner in Game 5, plain and simple. Turner was a -5, Sabonis was a +2. Overreacting to one game is usually a bad idea. But in two consecutive games, Sabonis has been as good or better than Turner.
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And on the brink of elimination, it may be time for head coach Nate McMillan to consider playing Sabonis big minutes, and perhaps bigger minutes than Myles.
In Game 5, Turner had a net rating of -18.9. Woof. Sabonis had a net rating of +3.4. In Game 4, Sabonis’ net rating was nearly three points better than Myles’. However, most of the damage Sabonis does in on the offensive end; his offensive rating is usually better than Turner’s on a game by game basis while his defensive rating is worse. That shows up when looking at those specific stats over the course of the whole series.
What Sabonis offers is help for Victor Oladipo. His hard screens combined with his pick and roll ability give Oladipo an outlet to pass the ball when he is double teamed, and Sabonis is great at knowing what to do with the ball once he gets it in these scenarios:
This shows up on the stat sheet. Oladipo’s offensive rating with Sabonis on the floor this series, 108, is higher than his offensive rating with Sabonis on the bench. So if the Pacers want to maximize their offensive potential, they should give Sabonis heavier minutes.
With Turner, the opposite is the case. He takes over the game on defense; his 94.6 defensive rating is the best on the Pacers throughout the postseason. But his offensive rating stinks, and while he himself has been shooting extremely well, he clogs up the offense by having the opposite effect as Sabonis. He can’t help bail Oladipo out of the traps when they share the floor, and with Vic out of the game, he can’t do enough on his own.
His hindrance to Victor Oladipo when he is snared is more than obvious. He cannot make the reads that Sabonis can, and he is not as polished of a passer:
But again, with Turner, it is all defense. He guards the rim like it is Fort Knox, and he steals opponents confidence by sending their shots into another dimension:
Both centers have been really good in the last two games. It’s a good problem to have. But having a problem at all is inherently not good in the postseason.
Next: Pacers need a plan more than riding the hot hand
Nate McMillan is going to have to make a decision. Does he prefer to go with a defensive-minded approach, or does he want to maximize the potency of the offense? The Pacers chose him as the head coach because they believe he can make these tough decisions. What he chooses will be telling, and it could shape the future of the Pacers organization. The conclusion to this dilemma will be fascinating.