The Pacers can knock off the Cavaliers, but it won’t be easy
Myles Turner needs to show up, and if not, Domantas Sabonis better
The series X-Factor is Myles Turner, who has been both brilliant and mediocre over the last two months. Unfortunately for everyone, Turner has been more mediocre than good recently, posting a single digit or negative GameScore in 10 of the last 13 games. But he can be brilliant too, like his 24 and 8 outing against the Clippers or the 25 and 6 against Philadelphia on March 13th. So, it’s not like there is no hope of him playing well, and if he doesn’t play well Indiana’s probably in trouble.
Unless…
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…Domantas Sabonis can cover for him. Sabonis have been averaging 11.5 points and 6.4 rebounds in the eight games since he came back from the ankle problem. Those aren’t absurd numbers, but they are steady. And, as he showed April 8 against Charlotte when he dropped 30, he can go big too. Now this isn’t an argument that Sabonis should start over Turner, it’s the opposite. Give Turner the start to see what he’s got going. If Turner’s off then you have Sabonis and Al Jefferson to turn to.
All and all, the Pacers should have the advantage in the post. Neither team has all that much of an advantage on the glass, but the Pacers will have the size advantage. Philandering aside, the Cavs have spent the last two weeks actively giving up on Tristian Thompson (he averaged 7.5 minutes a game in games 80 and 81, before playing 29 in a finale where the Cavs played no key rotation players more than 10 minutes). So, it’s probably safe to assume they aren’t viewing him as a key piece.
That leaves the recently-signed and physically-limited Kendrick Perkins and Larry Nance Jr. -who has also been relegated to the fringe of the second unit- as the only usable post players. If Cleveland sticks with James, Jeff Green and Kevin Love in their front court one of that trio will have to guard Sabonis and Turner. If Turner and/or Sabonis are on point, the advantage points to the Pacers on offense.