Domantas Sab-oh-no; a closer look at Sabonis’ recent struggles

Domantas Sabonis recently went down with an ankle injury, but before that happened he was struggling from the field. Let’s take a closer look at the sophomore big man’s recent challenges on the court.

Domantas Sabonis’ ankle injury was a killer for the Indiana Pacers. He has been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this year, showing massive growth from year one to year two, and he added so many skills that have helped the Pacers second-unit offense stay humming. He does a lot of little things well. But recently (actually, more than recently, basically since the start of February) Sabonis has been playing less effectively than we are accustomed to.

Nobody could have seen Sabonis becoming one of the ten best 6th men in the league. He has found a way to fit in with whoever the Pacers surround him with, using his upgraded passing and rebounding skills. He has nearly doubled his per game numbers in both of those statistical areas.

But the most important improvement that Sabonis has made is that he can finally the ball through the net. In Oklahoma City, he made less than 40 percent of his shots and sunk 65.7 percent of his free throws.

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This year, he has improved in all scoring areas – finishing better around the rim, from deep, and from the charity stripe. He’s over 50 percent on the season overall, and he’s hitting 73.7 percent of his freebies. His ball movement and hustle on the glass have been welcome additions to his game, but putting that ball in the basket is what grants him so many minutes.

Recently, much of that finishing has disappeared. After closing out the month of January with a monstrous five-game stretch in which he canned 63 percent of his shots, half his three-pointers, and grabbed nine rebounds per game, a steady decline started for the Lithuanian big man.

Something flipped at the start of February, and not in a good way. Only 43.8 percent of his shots went through the circle. He missed over 60 percent of his deep bombs. He only grabbed 6.3 rebounds per game. His numbers were down, and basically everywhere.

The focus here is on his struggles making shots, but his rebounding totals are included for good reason. In the five games prior, when Sabonis couldn’t miss, he grabbed 2.6 offensive rebounds per game. In the 16 games he has played in since the start of February, he has pulled down just 1.5 offensive rebounds per game. These numbers give us a clue when examining why his finishing numbers are down.

Offensive rebounds usually happen around the rim. If Sabonis grabs an offensive rebound, he is usually in a solid position to go straight back up and score:

A decrease in offensive rebounds for the backup center is surely part of the reason fewer shots are falling for him. It likely means he is getting fewer easy looks/putbacks around the rim.

Coincidentally, this could mean that he is spending less time around the basket in general, not just on the glass. February and March are the only two months of the season Sabonis averaged/is averaging less than two rebounds per contest.

His shot profile tells the same story. Over the past month and a half, he’s taking a higher percentage of his shots from 20 feet and further out than he was before February. Similarly, four percent more of his total shots have been jump-shots over the same timeframe.

Domantas Sabonis is a skilled finisher around the basket – he’s shooting 63.1 percent from five feet and in this year. He makes 58 percent of his layups and nearly every dunk. However, he only makes 34.2 percent of his jumpers. We have reached the precipice of his struggles. A combination of Sabonis’ own personal shot selection and defenses forcing him to settle for more jumpers is forcing Domas to take shots he isn’t as comfortable making. As a result, fewer shots are falling for him, and his overall impact has seen a small decline.

Next: Pacers cool down Heat in OT, clinch playoff spot

Over the stretch from February first until today, Sabonis has had games shooting 2/11, 2/7, and 4/10 from the field. Perhaps his injury is a blessing in disguise, as he now has time to clear his head and get back on track once he returns. Sabonis was still a solid and helpful player over this time, but keep an eye on his shot selection and how much time he spends around the rim once he returns.