No, the Pacers shouldn’t sign Isaiah Thomas

Some people are beginning to chatter and ponder that Isaiah Thomas and the Pacers would be a good fit come summer time. Which is fun and all, except they wouldn’t be a good fit.

Hasn’t NCAA Tournament been super fun so far? UMBC dumped Virginia (didn’t see that one coming). Loyola’s going to the Sweet Sixteen (actually called that one). A bunch of delightfully (and sometimes infuriatingly) close games living up to the “March Madness” moniker.

Speaking of which, this March has seen a maddeningly high amount of speculative articles urging and/or projecting the Indiana Pacers to sign Lakers point guard Isaiah Thomas in the summer. Which is interesting because he would be a bad fit.

I think there are three main reasons why people think a Thomas/Pacers union makes sense. First, Thomas can shoot. For example, Thomas is now outscoring Darren Collison 16 to 13. The Pacers lack some scoring pizzazz when Victor Oladipo is out (0-6 sans Vic). So the simple conclusion is adding a scorer will make the Pacers better. Sign Him!

Second, “Isaiah Thomas” is a sexier name than “Darren Collison”. When you hear “Isaiah Thomas” you think, that’s that two-time all-star, who used to lead the Celtics. His highlights were all over ESPN. When you hear “Darren Collison” you think, that team must be able to do better. I never see his highlights on ESPN. So, signing Thomas would be an instant upgrade over What’s-his-face, because it sounds better. That’s a little crass, but it’s true. Name recognition matters. That’s why you automatically assume Butler will play well in the NCAA tournament and you didn’t much of Loyola-Chicago.

Third, people woefully under-appreciate Darren Collison, and his contributions to this Pacers team.

If we’re looking at this Pacers team going ahead, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Oladipo is Indiana’s best player for the foreseeable future. Oladipo, at his best, is a pseudo-point guard. It key moments Vic has the ball and leads the attack. He may not actually shoot the key shot, but he’s at least involved.

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So if you’re looking for an ideal complement for Victor you’re looking for someone with a complementary skill-set, in this case, someone who can thrive and move well off the ball. Accurately bury catch-and-shoot jumpers, defend well, and also have the ability to take the game for stretches.

That’s why Scottie Pippen was such a great balance for the high-usage Michael Jordan. During the Bulls championship seasons, Jordan average usage rate was 33.3, and he lead the league in five of those six seasons. Pippen’s usage rate during those same six years was 24.0 while averaging 19.4 ppg. Excellent numbers, but at a fraction of the touches that Jordan demanded. Oladipo’s isn’t Jordan, but if Oladipo is going to command the ball the majority of the time (as he should) then you’ll need a player who can thrive on fewer touches.

Which brings us back to Collison.

While his defense isn’t on the Mike Conley-level, he emphatically checks every other box that you’d need from a point guard to start alongside Vic. Among starting point guards, Collison is second in the league in 3-point %. Need a basket, give him a screen and Collison can get you one. Or don’t give him a screen he can bury a step-back in someone’s face. He also takes care of the ball, only one other starter-level (Jose Calderon) point guard turns it over less.

Collison fits, he excels exactly where the Pacers’ need a point guard to fit.

But wait, this articles about Thomas?

Exactly, that’s my point too. This season Collison has just plan outplayed Thomas.

STAT	COLLISON	THOMAS
FG%-3P%-FT%	49.9- 44.6- 87.0	37.2- 30.2- 89.6
Assist-Turnover ratio	5.3-1.2 (+4.1)	4.9-2.9 (+2)
PER	18.5	13.1
True Shooting %	61.3	51.1
Win Shares (Off/Def)	6.5 (4.9/1.6)	0.3 (0.0/0.3)
Pace	98.9	104.8
Catch & Shoot (FG%-3P%-Ef%)	45.2- 45.9- 65.5	29.5- 30.3- 44.2

Of all of those numbers, there are two sets that really leap off the screen. The first is the catch and shoot numbers. Collison’s are a hop, a skip, a jump, a lunge, and a sprint ahead of Thomas’s. It’s a microcosm of why Collison fits so well in the Pacers offense and why Thomas wouldn’t: Indy can swing the ball to Darren and he’s comfortable knocking down open jumpers in the flow of the offense. That’s not Isaiah’s game, he gets into his rhythm off the dribble. It would at best pause a flowing Pacer offense.

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The second is the PER. Zach Kram of The Ringer wrote a piece that argued that once an All-NBA guard’s PER, for a season, dips below 15 (the mark of average) that his time as a member of the basketball elite is over. It’s not perfect like Oladipo had a PER of 13.6 last year and has rebounded nicely, but that’s not Kram’s point.

Thomas is much closer to 30 than 20, his mobility hasn’t returned to 100% since his hip injury, and maybe it never will. As Kram points out in his article, the weight of history is against it. A synonymous issue is that his PER is still below average since his relocation to Los Angeles, yet his usage numbers are still high (PER is 14, Usage is 28.4, barely less than his number with the Cavs). So with he’s barely using the ball less than Oladipo, he’s producing less than Thad Young (Young is at 14.3).

Thomas also hasn’t adjusted his game in Los Angeles. When he’s not actively involved in the offense, Thomas prefers to linger three steps behind the top of the three-point arc and just wait. Then on defense, well, to describe his defense as “apathetic” might be generous. Everyone gets screened, but not everyone just gives up afterward. I don’t think it requires much imagination to foresee that type of defense infuriating Pacer fans.

The only way Isaiah would make sense on the Pacers would be in the role Joe Young currently plays: 11th man of the bench, who occasionally starts, and just checks in to shoot for a few minutes. The Pacers already have a strong backup point guard (Corey Joseph), an impactful sixth man (Lance Stephenson) and a steady wing (Glenn Robinson III). You can only play five at a time, there just isn’t enough room for him.

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And that’s assuming Isaiah would be open to coming off of the bench, of which, there is no guarantee. Where would he fit? It’s a good question. For Thomas to be the best version of himself, he’ll need a team that will entrust it’s whole offense to him, à la what Boston did for two years. But the pickings will be slim. The only thing that is certain, Indiana wouldn’t be the best place for that.