With the trade deadline almost here, things will start getting hot. For the Indiana Pacers, the Denver Nuggets could make sense as a trading partner.
Within one day of the NBA trade deadline, this is the time where rumors turn to reality. There haven’t been a ton of rumors surrounding the Indiana Pacers, as per usual, but there are a couple that involve the Denver Nuggets.
To begin the month of February, USA Today’s Sam Amick reported that Denver had interest in Pacers starting point guard Darren Collison.
"According to two people with knowledge of the situation, they have serious interest in the Indiana Pacers’ Darren Collison (12.8 points, 5.3 assists per game as a starter) but have, thus far, been rebuffed. Collison, whose Pacers (28-23) are fighting to hold onto a playoff spot, has a team option worth $10 million on his deal for next season."
Collison was a natural trade candidate heading into the deadline, as he has been solid this season and only has $2 million guaranteed on his deal for next season. However, on Tuesday, Collison underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. That will hold him out for two-to-three weeks and may cool his trade market.
ESPN’s Zach Lowe also reported recently that Denver had talks with Indiana surrounding backup point guard Cory Joseph.
Joseph has a $7.9 million player option for next season. There is no guarantee he picks that up, but Denver would seemingly feel more comfortable trading for Collison knowing they would only have to pay him $2 million. Collison’s injury, however, puts the Nuggets in a tough place.
Denver will have a large luxury tax bill next season if they don’t start moving off some salary, which is why many expect the Nuggets to make a deal at the deadline. Indiana has a little bit of cap space to take back extra salary this year, and have one of the cleanest books in the league moving forward.
The Pacers could have a ton of space next season, allowing them to take back long-term money and extra assets in exchange for the partially guaranteed deals of Collison, Al Jefferson and Bojan Bogdanovic.
The Pacers have cap space, the Nuggets need to free up some of their own
If Denver still has interest in Collison, they could make a deal like this that allows them to save money now and later.
- Denver receives: Darren Collison
- Indiana receives: Darrell Arthur, Emmanuel Mudiay, 2018 first round pick
Should Arthur pick up his $7.46 million player option next season, the difference here in salary is about $10 million. That would essentially be the first step for Denver in cleaning up their salary sheets, and giving up a first-round pick for Indiana’s trouble is just the price they would have to pay.
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Collison is by far the best player in this deal, as both Mudiay and Arthur have not been cemented in Denver’s rotation this season. At the same time, though, it’s worth looking at both of those players. Arthur isn’t worth $7 million, but in Denver buried him in the rotation and could be useful if given a chance.
The numbers aren’t great, but this has been Mudiay’s best season. In a reserved role he has been more efficient (though he still has a long way to go there) from the field, three-point arc, and free throw line, as well as with the ball in regards to turnovers.
Indiana doesn’t have a long-term option at point guard now. The likelihood of Mudiay becoming that guy is very low, but taking a shot on a former lottery pick at a cheap price is never a bad idea.
Denver could probably also make that same deal for Joseph while sending back a second round pick instead of the first. With Joseph’s $7.9 million player option for next season, Denver would only be guaranteed to save about $4 million. They would still be getting a quality rotation player in exchange for two lesser players. The limited savings might not make the deal worthwhile for Denver, however.
Denver could save even more in a deal with Indiana if both sides added in another player:
- Denver receives: Collison, Bogdanovic
- Indiana receivers: Wilson Chandler, Arthur, Mudiay, first round pick
Bogdanovic is only guaranteed $1.5 million next season, while Chandler has a $12.8 million player option that he is likely to pick up. Adding in Collison’s partial guarantee and this would save Denver over $21 million for next season.
Indiana only does this deal if they are punting on free agency this summer, as that $21 million that Denver saves is now on Indiana’s salary sheet. Most of that money would come off the books after next season, however, and Chandler may be an upgrade over Bogdanovic. He had a career year last season but is down to the second-lowest scoring average (8.8) of his career this season.
Once again, the Collison injury could completely turn Denver away. But the possible savings may have them interested.
Next: Are the Pacers too optimistic about Darren Collison’s knee?
Both Indiana and Denver would have to be motivated to make any of these deals, as they involve a decent amount of salary going both ways. With Denver wanting to shed money and Indiana having future cap space, though, they may be a good match at the trade deadline.