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Are the Indiana Pacers too optimistic about Darren Collison’s knee?

By William Furr

INDIANAPOLIS - JANUARY 30: Darren Collison #2 of the Indiana Pacers works out before an all access practice at St. Vincent Center and Indiana Pacers Training Facility on January 30, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and condition of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS - JANUARY 30: Darren Collison #2 of the Indiana Pacers works out before an all access practice at St. Vincent Center and Indiana Pacers Training Facility on January 30, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and condition of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Darren Collison underwent arthroscopic surgery on February 6th. The Indiana Pacers listed his timetable for return as 2-3 weeks but is that reasonable? 

Arthroscopic knee surgery is a procedure all NBA fans have probably heard — usually with a reassuring clarification of “no structural damage” or “minor cleanup”. However, with any knee surgery, there is a recovery time. The Indiana Pacers have listed Darren Collison’s at 2-3 weeks.

That seemed on the short side, and I wanted to compare it to a few recent players who’ve undergone that arthroscopic knee surgery and how long it took them to return to the court.

A quick search leads me to believe the Pacers are very optimistic about Collison’s return time.

  • Kevin Love: 4 weeks
  • Iman Shumpert: 8 weeks
  • Joakim Noah: 7 weeks
  • John Wall: 6-8 weeks (currently out)
  • Al Jefferson: 6 weeks
  • D’Angelo Russell: no timetable given at all

I was unable to find any precedent for a player returning in that 2-3 week time span. Typically it takes 4-8 weeks for the knee to heal and re-establish normal joint fluid.

Collison would miss 4-6 games with the All-Star break falling in that recovery time if that 2-3 week timetable holds up. There are several struggling teams on the schedule in that period. The Pelicans, Knicks, Nets, Hawks, and Mavericks are all imminently beatable by competent squads.

But 6-8 weeks missed would paint a very, very different picture for this Pacers team. He’d be looking at likely missing the rest of the regular season if that recovery hits the 8-week mark; if it falls on the 4-week side, he’d still be missing 10-12 games.

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Collison has missed 3 games this year. The two that Victor Oladipo played in were both Pacers wins. One was a romp against the moribund Phoenix Suns. The other was the Nuggets, who were missing Nikola Jokic and Paul Milsap. The Pacers fell behind big early in that game and needed the best performance of Victor Oladipo’s career and overtime to beat the shorthanded Nuggets.

Collison has been a sneakily important player to the Pacers this season. He’s famously toeing close to the vaunted 50-40-90 club (for those who might not be familiar: the 50-40-90 club is referencing players who shot 50% overall, 40% from 3, and 90% from the line for an entire season), and has been pretty much the guy the Pacers thought they were getting in trading for Jeff Teague the year before.

His contract is reasonable, and he helped the Pacers engender ball movement in a way the team hasn’t seen since before Paul George blossomed.

Even if DC meets that 2-3 week timeframe, there’s no guarantee he’s going to be that same 50-40-90 guy right away. It takes time to get back into a rhythm after multiple weeks of not experiencing NBA level speed/competition and to get comfortable with a body part that just was operated on.

Even if DC meets that 2-3 week timeframe, there’s no guarantee he’s going to be that same 50-40-90 guy right away.

An athlete’s jumper, ability to cut and run, and ability to defend capably all depend greatly on an their knee. Any change to the way they move or their confidence in it can wreak havoc. Of the players listed above (Kevin Love, Iman Shumpert, Joakim Noah, John Wall, Al Jefferson, and D’Angelo Russell), all but Love and Al Jeff either missed the rest of the year or are currently out. (Shumpert returned for 1 game but hasn’t played since.) Love and Jefferson both saw a noticeable drop in their numbers upon returning.

In the 7 games immediately after Love’s return, he finished with 10 or fewer points 4 times, and only eclipsed 20 once. He wasn’t playing his normal minutes load (another potential issue), but played at least 19:45 in each of those games.

He also finished with a negative +/- rating in 6 of those 7 games. Al Jefferson’s numbers suffered across the board for the last 27 games of his season, and he’s fallen off precipitously each year since. (It is important to note that some age-related slippage would be expected in the years following that surgery regardless.)

It’s entirely possible that DC is just having a quick, minor surgery to clean some things up and he’ll be right as rain with only a few games missed. Everything could be totally on the up and up, and the 2-3 week estimate could be perfect. However — it would look to be far more likely that he’ll miss at least a bit longer than that, and how long it takes him to get back to 100% is anyone’s guess.

Next: Point guard Monday: Edmond Sumner is coming alive

The Pacers are currently 2 games out of third place in the East, and 2.5 games ahead of the surging 9th place Pistons. The speed of Darren Collison’s return could be the difference between the Pacers fighting for home court in the first round and the Pacers hoping the lottery balls ping their way. Get well soon, DC.

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