Shooting Guard Tuesdays: For Lance Stephenson, confidence is key

The saying “confidence is key” applies to many things in life. For Lance Stephenson, it is a saying he will take to his grave.

After the player introductions are over, fans at Bankers Life Fieldhouse sit in their seats to watch the Indiana Pacers play basketball. They softly praise each play and loudly celebrate the exciting highlights that happen throughout the game. But the biggest roar you will hear during a Pacers game is far and away the noise that ensues when Lance Stephenson checks into the game for the first time.

Lance, thanks to his exciting antics on and off the court, is one of the most popular players on the roster. There is a lot of emotion surrounding Stephenson’s performances, and the sentiments and creativity he shows on the court allow him to succeed. One of those emotions that propels him to triumph on his best nights is confidence.

Confidence is key for any person, but Lance Stephenson in particular. Lance doesn’t need confidence, per se, but when he hits his first shot and gets over the mental hump of scoring, he becomes unbelievably more effective.

In Indiana’s first 44 games, Lance has made his first shot in 21 of them, including seven games in a row from December 8th to December 20th. In these 21 games, Lance has taken 175 shots and made 92 of them, good for 52.57 percent. This is an incredible percentage from the field, and on 8.33 shots per game.

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Meanwhile, in games where Lance misses his first shot, the opposite story cannot be told. In those 23 games where Lance misses his first attempt, including the first nine games of the season, Stephenson has shot the ball 181 times and made just a mere 65 of them. That computes to 35.91 percent, a significant dropoff in percentage compared to the games where he cans his first jumper, and on a fewer number of attempts, just 7.87 attempts per game.

There’s a lot to take in here. The first thing to take a look at is that Lance shoots half a shot less per game when he misses his first attempt from the field, which suggests a small mental block. When the first shot doesn’t fall, Lance gets ever so slightly timider and takes fewer attempts from the field.

The bigger, and more important, statistic to look at here is the stark contrast in shooting percentage when he makes his first shot versus when he misses. He has taken six more shots in the games where he misses his first shot, yet he has made 27 more shots in the games where his first shot goes down. Confidence comes into play here, as when Lance hits his first shot of the game he is confident he can hit the rest. Considering he is a 44.1 percent shooter from the field this season, that confidence may be unwarranted, but somehow Lance hits more shots when he has the mental boost.

One of these games was the Pacers win over the Toronto Raptors in November, which may have been Lance Stephenson’s best game of the season. He went 7/9, including 4/4 from deep, and finished with 13 fourth-quarter points that lead the Pacers to a comeback win. He also hit this one in the clutch, which sealed the Pacers win and fired up the crowd (just listen):

Does Lance hit that shot if he isn’t confident? Does he even take it? Who knows, and that is why confidence is so key so Stephenson.

Next: Post-Game Grades: Pacers dominate back to back, win in Utah

Lance may be one of the most exciting players on the Pacers. His talents and creativity are unmatched around the league. His confidence is a big part of his skills, and it is dictated by the first shot of every game. Be on the lookout for Stephenson’s first field goal attempt every night, it can dictate how effective he will be in any performance.

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