Ain't no rest for the wicked: second half schedule analysis

As the Pacers head into the latter half of their season, rest becomes a much larger factor in the outcome of each game. What advantage or disadvantage do they have rest-wise going into the playoff push?

Don’t tell Cage the Elephant, but rest is actually quite crucial when it comes to success in the NBA. While there are no more back-to-back-to-backs or 4 games in 5 nights, the wear-and-tear of an 82 game schedule puts a team’s endurance to the test. After a few months of basketball, a back-to-back or 3 games in 4 nights scenario aren’t cakewalks for a team that needs to put up wins each and every night.

The Pacers, a team that is currently 3.5 games from the 3 seed, and 2 games from the 9 seed, probably want to win as many games as possible. We can look at Victor Oladipo‘s big year, Domantas Sabonis‘ impact off of the bench or Myles Turner‘s defensive anchorage until we’re blue in the face, but it’s hard to be great when you’re tired.

So, for today, let’s take a quick peek at Indiana’s remaining schedule and see where it helps them and where it hinders them (shout out to BigDataBall for the numbers).

The story so far

I’ll give it to you straight: the Pacers didn’t make the most of their rest advantages so far this year. They’ve turned out a 9-7 record when they’ve had at least a day advantage of rest on their opponent. Some qualifiers: one of those games was in Boston while the Pacers were already on a back-to-back (the Celtics were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights). Another one was Paul George‘s return to Bankers Life, where the Pacers only had a 2-to-1 day advantage in time off. And one was in Houston, where wins aren’t gonna come easy no matter how tired the opposition is.

The remaining 4 losses were shockingly unacceptable and play big into their current standing in the Eastern Conference: the Detroit Pistons in December, the ugly back-to-back losses against the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls (sans Oladipo), and last week’s loss against the Miami Heat, who had played 5 games in 7 days.

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But man, they have not been able to scrape much together when they’re at a disadvantage either. When the Pacers have less rest than their opponent, their record is an ugly 4-8. The 4 wins? The Cleveland Cavaliers when they were not good earlier in the year, the Bulls when they were not good earlier in the year, and the Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic who are just not that good period.

So for all you mathematicians out there, despite the 16 to 12 advantage in the number of days rest vs opponent for the Pacers, they ended up losing more when they weren’t favored than winning when they were favored. And for all you Mad Men fans out there, that’s not great, Bob.

What’s Next?

If you’re already bummed by what you’ve read so far, you may want to watch a few cute cat videos before going through this section. Logically speaking, if the Pacers had more rest than their opponents in the first half of the season, that will probably balance itself out in the second half. That logic is sound, as the Pacers have a 14-8 disadvantage in rest vs opponent in their final 39 games.

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That’s tough. All is not lost, though. With a fully healthy team, the Pacers may be able to fare better than they did earlier in the year in disadvantageous rest situations. Still, generally these games just get tougher as the season treads on.

There are some specific games to note where the difference in rest is stark. It just so happens that tonight’s bout against the Utah Jazz is the first one. Indiana, on the road, will have to try to win their 3rd game in 4 nights, while Utah has had 2 days of rest and relaxation. In the midst of a 5-game road trip, it’ll be a tough one to overcome.

Later this month, the Pacers have another 3-games-in-4-nights, the final of which is against the Magic, who will magically have 3 full days of rest before heading to Bankers Life. And the 3-in-4 situation arises again at home against the Washington Wizards in February, against the Jazz in March and on the road against the Charlotte Hornets in April, who all will have had a day of rest beforehand.

They catch a couple breaks. They’ll face a Dallas Mavericks team on their 3rd game in 4 nights whilst having 2 days of rest, and they take on the Los Angeles Clippers at home with 3 days of rest on their side with Los Angeles playing their 3rd in 4 nights. And, despite only having 1 day of rest themselves, the Pacers will get to see the Bucks at the end of a 3-games-in-4-nights in March. More importantly? That game is on the road. With the season series tied at 1-1, that rest advantage could be huge.

Some final statistics to chew on:

Of the 14 games where the Pacers have a rest disadvantage, 8 are against teams below .500 on the season.
Of the 8 games where the Pacers have a rest advantage, 3 are against teams below .500 on the season.
Of the 14 games where the Pacers have a rest disadvantage, 8 are on the road.
Of the 8 games where the Pacers have a rest advantage, 6 are on the road.

Oh, and a side note: some NBA schedule maker really hates the Pacers. Of their final 8 games: 6 are on the road, 2 are against the Golden State Warriors, and they have a stretch of 4 games in 6 nights that includes the Denver Nuggets, Golden State, the Toronto Raptors, and Charlotte.

Conclusion

There have been a lot more numbers than interpretations in this article, so let’s throw this out: the Pacers have an uphill climb to a decent playoff spot. They had some of the easier spots of their schedule already and weren’t able to take full advantage, and will now have to overcome a much tougher second half to maintain a solid record.

Next: Post-Game Grades: Pacers cruise, Suns lose

As mentioned before, it’s possible that a fully healthy Pacers team can overcome those obstacles. But it’s also possible that they’ll run out of gas. While rest isn’t the sole factor in determining a game’s outcome, it’s always something to keep an eye on, especially as we approach the final stages of the season.

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Ain’t no rest for the wicked: second half schedule analysis

By Ryan Eggers | Jan 15, 2018

As the Pacers head into the latter half of their season, rest becomes a much larger factor in the outcome of each game. What advantage or disadvantage do they have rest-wise going into the playoff push?

The story so far

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

What’s Next?

Conclusion