Pacers Player Preview: Al Jefferson — the old guard in a young front court

Al Jefferson represents the old guard in the Indiana Pacers young frontcourt, but can he change with the times? 

Al Jefferson comes into the Pacers 2017-18 season in a situation he’s never known in the NBA: out of the rotation. Jefferson, who will turn 33 in January, finds himself behind 21-year-olds Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis.

Despite losing 20 pounds this offseason (and 40 since signing in 2016), “not quite as big but don’t talk about chicken” Al Jefferson is looking at the possibility of DNP-CDs all year and has only 4 of his 10 million guaranteed next year. How does he figure into the plans for the Pacers this year?

Option A: The senior Jefferson slides into a mentoring role from the bench. Al doesn’t play much outside of garbage time (though there might be a lot of that this year) and covering injuries, but teaches the Pacers slew of young bigs (besides Turner and Sabonis, the Pacers also have 20-year-old rookie T.J. Leaf and 18-year-old rookie Ike Anigbogu).

Jefferson has a wide-ranging variety of post moves based on footwork, skill, and understanding of the game, rather than athleticism and brute strength that all 4 of the aforementioned players could learn from. He can also provide a lot in the way of teaching all 4 how to survive in the NBA as young bigs, having come into the league as a teenager himself.

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Option B: The newly svelte veteran steals minutes from whomever struggles among Leaf and Sabonis. Al’s vegetarian diet allows him to regain some of the quickness he had previously in his career, and he can at least fake guarding some of the quicker/stretchier 2nd unit centers out there. Guys like Kelly Olynyk with extreme range will probably always give him fits, but he could reshape his game just a bit and maintain some effectiveness scoring the ball for the 2nd unit.

Option C: Jefferson finds a new home during the season, either via trade to a team looking for cap relief in the summer of 18-19, or simply by being released from the Pacers. The Pacers would still be on the hook for his 4 million against the 18-19, but would save 6 million in the deal while making room to elevate Ike Anigbogu to the role of 5th big.

Pulling stats predictions from thin air

Role: 5th big man; veteran, mentor, occasional scoring punch, and all around good locker room guy.

47 games

Al Jefferson has never played less than 47 games in any season in his career, and that was directly related to injury. That number is absolutely in jeopardy this year.

12.7% on 3-pointers

Jefferson is 8-63 in his career from 3 point range, a not so sterling 12.7%. He’s showed no signs of expanding his range (or any desire to), but that could be a vehicle to seeing more minutes as his physical skills decline.

Player’s Season Summed up in One Bojack GIF

If you follow the Indiana Pacers, you need a sense of humor. Laugh so you don’t cry. And what’s funnier than Bojack Horseman? Nothing. Nothing is the answer.

via GIPHY

Jefferson worked hard to lose weight through his diet. Hopefully, it gets easier for him as time passes.

Sweatin’ Bullets

Sweatin’ Bullets is an 8p9s tradition started by Jonny Auping in which we offer standalone facts, observations, and commentary, often devoid of context or fairness.

• Al Jefferson’s career FG% and eFG% are .499, identical to his numbers last year.

• Big Al had the 3rd highest PER on the team last year at 18.9, behind Jeff Teague (19.2) and Paul George (20.2).

• Jefferson didn’t see a single minute of action during the Pacers 4 game defeat at the hands of the Cleveland LeBrons.

One Key Question

What can Al Jefferson bring to the table for this year’s Pacers?

The Situation: Al Jefferson has played 879 games and 25,815 minutes in his career, but is facing relegation to the 11th man in a 10 man rotation.

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• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
• Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?

Best-case Scenario: Jefferson remains the 11th man, but helps the Pacers extremely young bigs develop some back to the basket game to along with their collective stretchiness. His experience and age help the youth movement transition into the NBA smoothly, and he remains a well-loved mentor on the team.

Worst-case Scenario: Big Al siphons minutes away from the Pacers youth movement, but doesn’t improve on last year’s showing. He gets torched on the defensive end by mobile centers in the pick and roll, and his old school offense doesn’t click with the Pacers other rotation guys.

Prediction: The best case scenario here is very possible, and is what I predict we’ll see. Al sticks with the team this year while not playing a ton, but offers consistent invaluable advice, practice, and life skills, along with being a positive locker room voice.

Next: How will the draft lottery changes affect the Indiana Pacers?

Father time is undefeated, but he doesn’t always win quickly. Al Jefferson has elite skills that are rare in today’s NBA; if he is indeed quicker and lighter on his feet this year, he might just hold off father time a bit longer.