Pacers Player Preview: Turning over a new Leaf

The Indiana Pacers drafted T.J. Leaf in the first round of the draft this summer, making him the first major rookie in the post-PG era. What will his role be and what should be expected from him this season and beyond?

On draft night, Adam Silver went up to the podium and announced that the Pacers had drafted T.J. Leaf, which evoked a pretty substantial reaction of “Oh.” from fans. The 6’10” forward was a key part of a juggernaut UCLA offense, but he certainly wasn’t projected to be an NBA standout. Indiana is putting their faith in him as a part of their long-term rebuild, though the main question this year lies in what his role will be as a rookie.

The 6’10” forward was a key part of a juggernaut UCLA offense, but he certainly wasn’t projected to be an NBA standout. Indiana is putting their faith in him as a part of their long-term rebuild, though the main question this year lies in what his role will be as a rookie.

When Leaf was selected 18th overall, the team had no Domantas Sabonis, and Thaddeus Young was considered a prime candidate to be moved during the offseason. Now Day 1 of the regular season is here, and both of those players stand in Leaf’s way at the power forward position. Leaf has talent that needs to be developed, but will he even have a chance to in this current Pacers roster?

Though there isn’t much NBA sample size for Leaf other than his preseason performance, he definitely has some traits, good and bad, that were clearly portrayed during his freshman year at UCLA. If the Pacers are lucky, he’ll be able to continue his explosive offensive nature and improve upon his defensive weaknesses.

Pulling stats predictions from thin air

Role: Prospect

This is the nicest way to put it. With the competition at power forward and Leaf’s deficiencies on defense, there probably isn’t much room in the rotation for him this year. It’s yet to be seen whether that means he’ll be a Mad Ant for much of the year or simply a low-minute ninth or tenth man, but both of those options are more likely than a substantial role this year.

Leaf will average less than 10 minutes per game this year.

This isn’t necessarily a knock on Leaf, but there’s just too much congestion.

Leaf will shoot 35 percent (or less) from behind the arc this year.

Not to double down on the negativity towards the rookie, but it’s hard to envision his shot being able to blossom at the NBA level given his current situation. This might seem blasphemous to anyone that looks at Leaf’s college stats or anyone that saw his spectacular performance in the preseason against the Cavaliers. Yes, Leaf shot an amazing 62.5% in the preseason, but that’s a four-game sample size of eight three-point shots. Just tracing back to Orlando in the Summer League, Leaf put up an abysmal 20% from deep in three games on ten shots. Point is, with the amount of game flow he’s going to receive, and the adjustment he’s going to have to make against NBA defenses (not to mention an offense that won’t flow nearly as smoothly as UCLA’s), Leaf probably isn’t going to be lights out this year.

Player’s Season Summed up in One Bojack GIF

If you follow the Indiana Pacers, you need a sense of humor. Laugh so you don’t cry. And what’s funnier than Bojack Horseman? Nothing. Nothing is the answer.

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Many Pacers fans may get caught up in his flashy offensive prowess or knockdown three-point ability, but it’s not good to get caught up in the idea that fresh faces are always great faces. Leaf has serious issues defensively, and he hasn’t proven yet that he’s destructive enough on offense to make up for those defensive issues.

Sweatin’ Bullets

Sweatin’ Bullets is an 8p9s tradition started by Jonny Auping in which we offer standalone facts, observations, and commentary, often devoid of context or fairness.

Leaf averaged 8.2 rebounds last year during his freshman season at UCLA. Leaf averaged the inverse of that, 2.8, in the rebound category during his preseason stint with the Pacers.
Despite his clear ability to knock down threes when open, Leaf is confusingly below-average as a free-throw shooter. He averaged about 68% from the line in college, 67% in the pre-season and 57% in the Summer League.
Leaf’s best game last year, a 32 point, 14 rebound outing against Washington State, came on a Wednesday. The Indiana Pacers debut on a Wednesday this season. Is this relevant? Probably not, but there’s only so many stat gems that can be found from a body of work that includes one year of college ball and one preseason stint.

One Key Question

Can Leaf adapt to the NBA and develop into a defender that can hang with NBA players?

The Situation: The number one problem holding Leaf back as a player in this league, regardless of the roster makeup in front of him, is his inability to defend. With the players only getting stronger, faster and tougher at the NBA level, this weakness will be exposed easily and often. If Leaf wants a place in this league, he has to learn how to cover better, how to efficiently switch on screens and how to prevent guys from effortlessly blowing past him. If he can do that, he might be able to net some real minutes, which will help him boost his offensive numbers and be able to keep himself in a rotation going forward. That is a big if, though, and it’s hard to gauge whether Leaf is capable until he can physically manifest defensive growth and development on the court.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Best-case Scenario: Leaf rises above his defensive problems and becomes what could best-expectations could be seen as an average defender in the league, which enables him to stay on the court long enough to develop his offensive game. Now no longer being a defensive liability, Leaf brings an array of offensive weapons to the floor and starts a journey in this league that hopefully involves becoming a major piece of the Pacers’ future.

Worst-case Scenario: Leaf proves that he just isn’t fit to be an NBA defender and bounces around teams as a benchwarmer for a few years, ultimately ending up in the D-League or overseas, where he thrives because his defensive game is more easily masked by his offense.

Prediction: Leaf will probably develop into an NBA body and become just competent enough on defense to be given time on the floor. As long as his offensive abilities transfer, he should be able to become a solid contributor off the bench for years to come, who is below-average-yet-not-a-total-liability on defense, and a great offensive spark that’s good for a couple of three-point bombs a game.

Next: Season Preview: Central Division

Leaf is many things, but he is foremost the Pacers’ first-round pick this year, so he will almost definitely get a chance early on in the season. But with Young and Sabonis in front of him and his own defensive issues to boot, Leaf probably won’t make huge strides in his rookie season. That’s okay. With tempered expectations of his output this year, an ideal “good” year for him would be to develop his body and his defensive game, while polishing and refining his offensive tools to the NBA level. He’s a project, but a project that the Pacers plan on seeing out to its full potential.