With the Indiana Pacers’ 2017-18 season fast approaching, let’s take a peek at how the Pacers might stack up in the Central Division.
The Central Division has some intrigue to it. It could have as many as four playoff teams or as few as two. It has a colossus with a crumbling foundation and a team so far ahead of its time that it could either be soaring toward a bright future or stuck in neutral; it has a supposedly terrible team that might actually be pretty good and a supposedly good team that might actually be pretty bad; and it has a team that will make a bold case for being the worst in the Association.
Now that long sentence might be completely accurate, but it could also be completely wrong, such is the hazards of predictions. It’s impossible to predict injuries (unless it involves Jabari Parker or Derrick Rose), or any of random happenings that could, uh, happen. But, let’s throw caution to the wind, predictions are fun. Here’s one for each team in alphabetical order and a glimpse into how the Pacers may fit into the mix.
CHICAGO BULLS
2016-17 Record: 41-41, 4th in Central, 8th in the East
Projected Starters: PG Jerian Grant, SG Justin Holiday (Zach LaVine), SF Paul Zipser, PF Nikola Mirotic, C Robin Lopez. Rotation Pieces: Bobby Portis, Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Denzel Valentine. Head Coach: Fred Hoiberg 83-81 in third year with Chicago. Average age of core: 24.1.
The Chicago Bulls are in a tremendous -and by tremendous, I mean almost perfect- position to be one of the three worst teams in the NBA, thereby earning one of those three golden tickets in the Draft Lottery.
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Being in contention for that number 1 pick seems to be the Bulls motivation. They only have two players on their roster that are legitimate starters and even then they are far from perfect. Zach LaVine will begin the year dinged-up and pairs his improving offense with atrocious defense; while the odds are that Robin Lopez will being playing for someone else come February.
The rest of the roster is a smorgasbord of role players that Chicago will sample from and see which they’d like to keep for 2018-19. But even then it’s not clear how many will be keepers on a good team. Taking the rookie Lauri Markkanen out of the equation -because he hasn’t played a game yet- the average VORP (value over a replacement player) of his likely 12 other teammates was a whopping 0.2 last season. Barely squeaking over basketball’s Mendoza line.
Success for the Bulls won’t be measured in the win column -there won’t me much there anyway- it will be measured by letting it’s gaggle of youngsters compete against each other and maybe a couple gems will sift to the top. Their only position that seems to have a direct pecking order is at Center, where Lopez is the starter and Cristiano Felicio is his backup and heir apparent.
But for confidence in the future to grow some players are going to have to take major leaps. Their best 3-point shooters will be two newcomers (LaVine and Markkanen), everyone else trailed Jerian Grant’s very average .366. They’ll carry five point guards who posted an uninspiring 1.7/1 Assist/Turnover ratio a year ago, so they’ll hope Kris Dunn can turn back the clock to his Providence days.
Chicago’s going to be bad. But maybe they’ll get some assets for Lopez and Nikola Mirotic at the trade deadline. Maybe Markkanen and Felicio will excel when they inherit starting roles. Maybe Dunn seizes the day, and LaVine scores more than he gives up. Maybe the cream will rise to the top, and the ping pong balls will bubble in Chicago’s favor. Maybe. What’s certain is that they’ll lose enough games to be in content for a golden ticket.