Pacers Players Preview: Will Victor Oladipo live up to his expensive deal?

The Indiana Pacers traded a superstar for a package centered around Victor Oladipo. Will he prove Indiana right or send them into a hopeless abyss?

As I was nearing the end of my shift on the night of June 30, I checked my phone to see the exact time. Sharing my home screen with the time of day was the notification that Paul George had been traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.

There was obvious shock in the moment and expected dismay after the news settled in. It was an underwhelming deal, but one we’d have to live with nonetheless.

Time passed and the season crept closer. The disappointment turned into interest and intrigue. The Pacers have pushed the reset button and have two interesting prospects moving forward alongside hopeful franchise cornerstone Myles Turner.

Oladipo has a lot of pressure on him this season. Whether it be replacing Paul George, or fulfilling Indiana University basketball fans’ dreams, or living up to his $21 million annual wage, all eyes will be on him to see whether he was worth it or not.

Pulling stats predictions from thin air

Role: Creator

It’s a simple description, but only because Oladipo’s role will be so broad. He’s going to be asked to do a lot on offense. At times he will be bringing the ball up and zooming past defenders to either attack the rim or kick out to three-point shooters.

At other times he will be playing off the ball, either looking for backdoor cuts or looking for spot-up three-point shots.

On defense, they’re going to need Oladipo to pressure ball handlers and get steals. Simply said, the Pacers are going to need Oladipo to do a lot for this team to win a respectable amount of games (with low expectations in mind).

Oladipo will average a career-high 18 points per game

This is Oladipo’s best opportunity to record both efficient and high stats. In Indiana, Oladipo will be somewhere in between the two situations he was in prior.

In Orlando, Oladipo had all the opportunity, but little talent around him. In Oklahoma City, Oladipo played with the MVP — who recorded the highest usage rate ever.

Oladipo may not get the 25.2 usage rate he got in his second year with the Magic, but he’ll certainly break the 21.4 mark he recorded last season with the Thunder. With a budding star in Turner along with other solid starters, Oladipo should have his fair share of easy points.

Oladipo’s three-point shooting will regress

As a spot-up shooter next to Russell Westbrook last season, Oladipo was able to chuck up 5.3 three-point attempts per game and hit 36.1 percent of those shots.

Oladipo shot 4.4 catch-and-shoot threes per game last season. If you remove the other 0.9 attempts per game and use just the catch-and-shoot attempts, it would still be a career high.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Those opportunities were created by the wrecking ball that is Russell Westbrook. The Pacers don’t have anyone with nearly the gravity that Westbrook has. Westbrook’s ability to draw in defenders allowed Oladipo to shoot the majority of his threes with no defenders in his face.

All of those factors bring me to this conclusion: Oladipo will have a tougher time making threes this year.

And honestly, having that many open attempts and still shooting just above average, maybe three-point shooting should just be a limited part of Oladipo’s game.

He’s incredibly fast with the ball and makes good decisions in transition. That’s where a lot of his offense should come from. The majority of the rest should be from utilizing his size and speed, and then the shooting should fill in the gaps.

Player’s Season Summed up in One Bojack GIF

If you follow the Indiana Pacers, you need a sense of humor. Laugh so you don’t cry. And what’s funnier than Bojack Horseman? Nothing. Nothing is the answer.

Oladipo during warmups when one of his songs plays over the speakers…

Sweatin’ Bullets

Sweatin’ Bullets is an 8p9s tradition started by Jonny Auping in which we offer standalone facts, observations, and commentary, often devoid of context or fairness.

Oladipo has reduced his turnovers in each of his four seasons, and there is no correlation with minutes played. In Year One, Oladipo averaged 31.1 minutes and 3.2 turnovers per game. In Year Two, 35.7 minutes and 2.8 turnovers. Year Three, 33 minutes and 2.1 turnovers. Last season, 33.2 minutes, 1.8 turnovers. It would be nice if that trend follows Vic to Indiana this season.
Oladipo’s free throw rate has dropped through each of his four seasons. Free throw rate is defined by Basketball-Reference as the “number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt.” It’s a good way to gauge how well high usage, high volume shooters are at getting to the line, and how efficient players are with their possessions. It is understandable why Oladipo’s free throw rate dipped so low last season as he used more possessions shooting threes than attacking the rim. That number should start trending the other way starting this season with the Pacers.
Oladipo received 38.6 percent of his passes last season from Russell Westbrook. The second closest? Domantas Sabonis at 9.9 percent. On those passes from the MVP, Oladipo shot 47.9 percent overall and 37.6 percent from three. Oladipo shot 48.4 percent overall and 40.9 percent from three on passes from Sabonis (on a very small sample size). Oladipo returned the favor to Westbrook and Sabonis, passing to them 35.8 and 11.1 percent of the time.

One Key Question

Can Oladipo prove to be a major piece of the puzzle moving forward?

The Situation: With George no longer in the fold, the Pacers have some big shoes to fill. Over the summer, all the hype has surrounded Myles Turner. There is no problem with that, as Turner has a ton of talent and is an extremely mature 21-year-old both on and off the court. Oladipo may be what he is as a player at this point, but there’s some reason to think he has not hit his ceiling quite yet. His career has been a bit of a roller coaster to this point, with roster parts and roles constantly changing in Orlando and opportunity to freelance in Oklahoma City essentially being stripped away by Westbrook. In Indiana, with hopefully a more consistent situation and more consistent expectations, Oladipo can just focus on playing and improving.