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Pacers salary series: Al Jefferson has something to prove

By Tony East

CLEVELAND, OH - FEBRUARY 15: Al Jefferson #7 of the Indiana Pacers on the bench during the first half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena on February 15, 2017 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OH - FEBRUARY 15: Al Jefferson #7 of the Indiana Pacers on the bench during the first half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena on February 15, 2017 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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In this series, 8p9s writer Tony East breaks down the contract situation of each Pacers player. In this edition, we’ll look at Al Jefferson, who’s role is very much up in the air.

The summer of 2016 saw some crazy contracts, especially for centers. Joakim Noah, Timofey Mozgov, and former Pacer Ian Mahinmi got some serious dough, and the market for big men ballooned. The Pacers fell for the trap and joined the trend, signing Al Jefferson to a year 3-year deal.

The thinking behind this deal was understood, and borderline intelligent, at the time. Mahinmi was gone, so Al Jefferson would come in and replace his minutes as a conventional backup center. He would give Myles Turner rest while still being an impact player off the bench.Sounds great, right?

Sounds great, right?

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Well, the big classic didn’t exactly live up to expectations.  He was out of shape all season and couldn’t stay on the court. His career low in minutes prior to last season was 1051, during his rookie year. Last season he only played 931 minutes, a testament to his condition. It’s hard to have an impact playing basketball when you can’t play a lot of basketball, and the Pacers found out the hard way.

At least Jefferson wasn’t totally awful when he was on the floor. Most of his per 36 minutes numbers were right in line with where they have been for most of his career, and his free throw shooting took a significant step forward.

20 points per 36 minutes are more than nothing. It shows that Jefferson really, really was out of shape, because you don’t sit that kind of production on the bench unless he is really tired. But he could still score and move when he played like he does here:

Those moves and post production off the bench is what the Pacers are paying Jefferson for.

2017-18 season

Jefferson is set to make $9,769,821 this upcoming season and carries a cap hit of that amount. Per my salary formula, Jefferson produced at a value of about $800,000 last season, so the fact that he has almost $10 million guaranteed is great for Jefferson but bad for the Pacers. Hopefully, he can increase his contributions and up his total minutes so that he may be worth close to that cap figure.

2018 summer and beyond

For Jefferson, things don’t look good. Next summer, he has a $10,000,000 salary, but only $4,000,000 of that money is guaranteed. On the chance the Pacers waived him, they could free up $6 million in cap space next summer.

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If the Pacers feel like they can get a better player than Jefferson for $6 million or less (spoiler: they can), then they will likely waive him. If not he may stick around.

An interesting way to think about Al Jefferson is that he is basically on a 1 year 14 million dollar contract. Of course, that isn’t actually correct, but teams that want cap space in the summer of 2018 could trade bad long-term money for Jefferson in attempt to generate more cap space.

Prediction time

I can say with almost certainty that Jefferson won’t be on the Pacers after this season. Even if he lives up to his salary this season, the Pacers want younger players, so there is very little value in keeping him around. Hopefully, he can contribute a little this season, but beyond that, don’t expect much from him going forward.

Next: Let's play some NBA 2K18 with the Indiana Pacers

Maybe he will improve this year, maybe he won’t. Regardless, don’t expect to see Big Al in a Pacers uniform much longer.

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