8p9s roundtable: What do you want for Paul George?
A blockbuster Paul George trade seems almost guaranteed at this point. The only questions left are “when?” and “for what?”
Over the last two days or so, a Paul George trade has seemed more imminent than ever, to the extent that bloggers everywhere haven’t walked more than 15 feet from their laptops for 48 hours. We asked a few of our writers to answer a single question: “When Paul George gets traded, what do you hope the return package is?”
We tried to stay inside the realm of reality, so you won’t see any “Fultz and Embiid or no deal” type responses. That said, we are fans, so we reserve the right to get carried away for a sentence or two.
Enough intro, though. Let’s get right to the answers.
Will Furr: What the Pacers can actually get for Paul George right now is varying wildly depending on who you listen to. Some are suggesting high lottery picks, some are suggesting near pure salary dumps. I think the Pacers will get a real return for Paul George with the Cavs and Clippers both reportedly entering the foray. It’s unknown if Danny Ainge is willing to deal with the man who used him to spawn the phrase “Pritch Slapped”, but it does look like there are at least three teams who are semi-publicly vying for PG.
It’s unlikely the Pacers will get much from Cavs, outside of Kevin Love and a pick well into the future. If the Pacers are actually going to rebuild, Kevin Love is almost certainly the wrong answer (unless they have a second trade or a three-team trade lined up to move Love immediately). The Clippers are in the same boat, with not much to offer outside of bad picks and limited veterans. The Pacers should – and almost certainly will – use those teams as pressure to achieve their ultimate goal.
The Pacers aim should be that shiny No. 2 pick from Los Angeles. I think a PG for Luol Deng and the No. 2 pick is very possible, and I’d attempt to procure Jordan Clarkson, who the organization seemed to sour on a bit, under the guise of additional cap relief. The Pacers can include Monta Ellis (one year guaranteed) or Al Jefferson (two years) and take on the three years Clarkson has left at $12+ million. It seems unlikely LA will want cap space that badly, but there are some starry free agents coming in the next two years, and Magic Johnson may well be desperate to prove the Lakers to yet again be the superior team out West. If the Pacers can procure the No. 2 pick, they should be all too happy to help Magic with that aim.
Tony East: I would say Nate Duncan did a great job finding an analog for this trade – Andre Iguodala to the Nuggets in 2012. Sure, there was a better chance of Iggy staying in Denver than there is of PG staying wherever he goes, but Paul George is also the better player.
The Iggy trade was a four-teamer, but the Nuggets sent out Arron Afflalo, a first-round pick and a second-round pick. I think that would be close to value for Paul George: a solid starter, a first, and a second.
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That said, everyone has seen Portland and Cleveland ideas floating around, but I will go a different route. Minnesota could probably get George for the seventh pick and Ricky Rubio. That would be worth exploring for the Pacers, though that is a high price for a rebuilding team like Minnesota.
Orlando could look to do Elfrid Payton and the sixth pick. That is probably too much for a rebuilding team to relinquish, much like Minnesota,.
The sweet spot for picks, to me, is in the eight to twelve range: New York, Dallas, Sacramento, Charlotte and Detroit. Let’s take the Knicks out because they won’t trade Kristaps Porzingis or their pick, and Carmelo Anthony isn’t close to enough. Charlotte is out because their best “touchable” asset after the pick is … Cody Zeller maybe? Nothing the Pacers would really want unless the package is Frank Kaminsky, No. 11 and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, too much for a rental. The Kings are the Kings and don’t really want to be good next year. So that leaves two options: Detroit and Dallas.
Detroit could be an option with No. 12 and maybe Tobias Harris or Reggie Jackson. They don’t want Jackson anymore apparently, so Paul George on a rental could be a nice return for him. Dallas is another interesting one. They aren’t interested in tanking and they have the ninth pick and a lot of pretty appealing starters. Maybe No. 9 and Wes Matthews or No. 9 and Seth Curry gets it done at this point.
Obviously, I think Cleveland and Boston are the leaders in the clubhouse, but I want to think outside the box. Because it’s a rental, a lot of teams could get into the mix. It should be a very exciting process.
Hunter Kuffel: I’d like the Pacers to aim a little higher, literally. The Denver Nuggets have more young players than they know what to do with, and they control the 13th pick in this year’s draft as well. Rumor has it they’re looking to draft a wing like OG Anunoby who could beef up their defense. Paul George would do a much better job.
Sure, Denver doesn’t have an illustrative history of attracting or retaining superstar free agents, but it’s impossible to ignore the young core they’re building over there. Nikola Jokic is one of the most exciting young centers in the game, and who knows? Maybe George could even help them lure Paul Millsap to the mile high city.
How about the 13th pick and one of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris or Juancho Hernangomez for Paul George? Denver will have to include salary flotsam like Mike Miller or (pour one out) Roy Hibbert to make the trade work, but it would center around a pick and a prospect. That’s not the type of haul Pacers fans were hoping for last February, but it’s comparable with past deals that involved superstars on expiring contracts. Denver fans won’t cherish the idea of losing one of their exciting young guys, but that’s the price you pay for stars in a “small” market. A team like the Nuggets will have to give up more goods than a team like the Lakers. No clause in the CBA will ever change that.
That said, I think this is a deal that could end up working for both sides. Or maybe not. I don’t know what’s happening anymore.
Luke Parrish: I would like to see the Pacers swing a deal to Minnesota. If the Timberwolves feel like they can convince Paul George to stay or maybe use a year with him to groom their young talent, a trade makes sense. Minnesota has been trying for years now to rebuild, and adding a star like George can get them over the hump.
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In this scenario, The Pacers would give up George in exchange for Zach LaVine, Ricky Rubio and the seventh overall pick in the draft. It sounds a bit extreme, but there is reason to believe the Wolves would go for it. As far as the Pacers, this may be the best offer they get.
Why would the Wolves do this? They have been shopping Rubio for what seems like forever and they drafted Kris Dunn last year. LaVine is coming off an ACL injury last season so his explosiveness may not be what it once was. A top-10 pick is a lot for a guy that probably doesn’t stay long-term, but they have had so many early picks and they still can’t get out of the rebuilding phase.
Why would the Pacers do it? Failure to move George earlier and poor handling of the situation has certainly dropped his trade value. If they can manage to get a couple starting-caliber guys and a high pick, they should jump at the chance. Who knows, the Pacers could get another dunk contest participant.
Next: What could the Pacers get for the 18th pick?
With the seventh pick, the Pacers could look at a guy like Malik Monk or Donovan Mitchell if they want another wing. That then gives versatility at the No. 18 slot and the draft night may not be all bad.