Would Paul George on the Cavaliers tip the Finals in Cleveland’s favor?

Paul George isn’t suiting up for the Cleveland Cavaliers any time soon. However, would he even make them the favorites over Golden State?

The “what if the Cavs traded for Paul George?” rumor mill has been churning at all hours over the past few days, to the extent that Cleveland sages Brian Windhorst and Dave McMenamin felt compelled to address the scuttlebutt in their most recent piece on ESPN.com.

The whole thing is ridiculous on the face of it. Why don’t they just trade for Kawhi Leonard while they’re at it? However, George just so happens to alleviate most of Cleveland’s weaknesses, and he’s been surrounded in trade rumors for years now, so I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised this is happening.

The Cavs are already paying the highest luxury tax bill in the NBA, so if they’re even dreaming of adding a player like George, they’ll need to shed equivalent salary. The most heavily discussed solution by far has been a straight-up swap: Kevin Love for Paul George. I’m not going to discuss how likely or realistic that deal is.

Instead, I’m going to try and figure out if this deal would tip the scales in Cleveland’s favor going forward. This post will have no bearing or basis in reality and will very likely be completely irrelevant in a matter of weeks. So here we go: If they replace Love with George, does that mean the Cavs are the new favorites?

Offense

Cleveland’s offense is a juggernaut as is, and it’s a tossup whether replacing Love with George would improve things from purely a scoring standpoint. Their offensive rating could stay largely unchanged.

However, the addition of George would unlock some very dangerous lineups that might be better suited to run with Golden State. PG playing heavy minutes on the wing could allow the Cavs to play LeBron at the four more often with Tristan Thompson as the only big man.

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George would also add another playmaking option on the wing, potentially unlocking LeBron as an off-ball threat. Ty Lue could have him run the show when LeBron is resting as well. Maybe the Cavs could finally tread water during the minutes without their fearless leader.

Here’s the problem: while George would make it easier for the Cavs to play more of Golden State’s game, I’m not sure he makes them better than the Warriors at going small. Cleveland’s best five-man lineup with Paul George is still likely not a match for the Hamptons five, and losing Kevin Love would make it easier for Golden State to trot that unit out there even more.

Love’s departure would also likely mean a drop-off in rebounding, and the Cavs would have to hope to improve enough in other areas that this wouldn’t matter. Especially against Golden State, preventing transition and fast-break opportunities is incredibly important. The Warriors are so efficient in transition situations that SB Nation’s Mike Prada recently suggested the Cavs chuck the ball out of bounds before they let Golden State get out and run. If the Cavs are too small to grab enough of their own misses, their added versatility on offense might not matter much.

To sum up, Paul George would make the Cavs way better at playing small, and he could help steady things and make plays while LeBron is on the bench. However, he would make it harder for the Cavs to play big and dominate the glass, and if their new small lineup proves to not be enough, the Cavs are kind of stuck with it.

Defense

George’s impact on the defensive end is much more unambiguous. He gives Cleveland another option to throw at Kevin Durant, and that would make our central question a debate even if there were no other benefits. George is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, and I feel comfortable saying Kevin Love is not.

George’s efforts could just mean that KD scores 28 instead of 35

George could feasibly guard any non-center on the Warriors (I’m including Draymond Green in that group), and having him guard Durant for stretches here and there would give LeBron a chance to be more of a free safety on defense. That freedom could be the key to slowing down one of the best offenses we’ve seen in years.

Cleveland’s defense would be much more switchable with George, and he would be able to handle his assignment well enough that his teammates could stay home on shooters more. The Cavs could actually deliver on their “cover everyone else and force Iguodala and Draymond to make shots” strategy. Whether that’s a sound strategy is another question, but Cleveland would be able to execute it to a T.

All that being said, this is what Kevin Durant looks like when he’s defended well. George’s efforts could just mean that KD scores 28 instead of 35. That might be enough to change the series, or it might mean we’re talking about the #HealthOfTheLeague just a little bit less next year.

Even if LeBron and PG manage to shut down Durant as much as anyone can, that doesn’t make Kyrie Irving less of a liability. Golden State can still find a way to get a favorable switch and exploit Irving’s weaknesses to their heart’s content.

The thing is, I think it’s very fair to say that this Warriors team hasn’t reached their offensive ceiling yet. If they do, I’m not sure any lineup short of five Kawhi Leonards would be enough to slow them down.

Conclusion

I think there’s little doubt that a Cavs team with Paul George instead of Kevin Love would be a lot closer to beating the Warriors. Would this trade push them over the edge, though? My gut says not quite. Golden State just seems like they have an answer for everything right now, and unfortunately, Paul George is included in that.

From an entertainment standpoint, however, this trade would fix most of our complaints about these Finals. The games would be closer, and the Cavs would even seem like they have a fighting chance every now and then. What a novel concept.

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There’s no way this is happening, though, so all hail our Warrior overlords.