Pacers player review: Al Jefferson’s slow march into irrelevancy

After a disappointing season, Al Jefferson’s 3 -year, $30 million contract looms over the Indiana Pacers’ future.

The Larry Bird strategy of “sign guys who score a lot of points per game” was most obvious with last summer’s signing of Al Jefferson. The $30 million dollar man certainly has a role in today’s NBA, but that role is quickly dwindling.

The need for big men who can score but are less than useful on defense decreases day by day and Al Jefferson has been the embodiment of good offense, mediocre defense over his career.

Upon the signing, the supposed role for big Al would be the first big man off the bench, likely the sixth man, and a mentor to Myles Turner. Though it is impossible to tell if he did the last one, there is a good chance he failed to do all three of those things for the Pacers. Due to a combination of good play from Myles Turner and bad play from Jefferson, Al only played 14 minutes per game (a career low) throughout the season.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

• 2 Studs, 1 dud from gut-wrenching Indiana Pacers loss to Charlotte Hornets
• Handing out early-season grades for Pacers’ Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin
• 3 positives, 2 negatives in Pacers In-Season Tournament win vs. Cavaliers
• 2 positives, 3 negatives from first week of Indiana Pacers basketball
• Should Isaiah Jackson’s days with Indiana Pacers be numbered?

By the end of the season, he was usurped of his “first big off the bench” role by Lavoy Allen (who makes 40 percent of what Al makes). The playoffs, a large reason you sign a competent bench big man, could have been redemption time for Jefferson, and he didn’t even play due to injuries.

Jefferson clearly did not live up to expectations in his first season in Indiana, and there are probably multiple factors that caused this. One is that he is a big man in his 13th season, so an eventual decline in movement and skill was inevitable. A second factor leading to big Al’s poor season is his lack of adaption to the modern NBA.

Big men who can either spread the floor or play defense are the talk of the league now, and unfortunately, Al is neither of these. Similar offensive minded guys like Brook Lopez, Z-Bo, and even DeMarcus Cousins adapted by stretching their game out to the 3-point line. Jefferson did not make this adjustment to the modern game, and it hurt both him and the Pacers throughout this season.

Significant Digits

Al Jefferson’s Defensive box plus minus: -1.5

That’s right, Al Jefferson is 1.5 points per 100 possessions WORSE than the average NBA player. That is his career worst, his previous career worst was -.9 in his rookie season.

Old age really caught up to Al on defense. Many factors contribute to this stat, including the lineups you play with, but it is clear that Al’s bad defense attributed quite a bit to this poor statistic.

He averaged a career low in blocks, rebounds, and steals while also having his third highest career foul rate.

It was a rough season for Al on the defensive end, and some improvement is needed if he is going to live up to the role/contract he was offered.

The Pacers were +1.3 with Al Jefferson on the bench, -5.3 with him on the court (per 100 possessions)

If you’re wondering why he only played 14 minutes a game, this is why. The Pacers were pretty bad when Al was playing basketball, plain and simple.

His defensive struggles were the most noteworthy, but he isn’t exactly off the hook on offense. He had his third lowest career free throw attempt rate, and he excels at the line for a big man, and he shot under 50 percent from the field (not good for a big man).

It was not a good season on either side of the ball for Al Jefferson, so it became hard to give him minutes. His net rating was a solid reflection of his play. In the 10 games in which Jefferson played 19 minutes or more, the Pacers had three wins. One of those was against Phoenix and one was at home against Philly. They went 30-23 in games in which he played less than 19 minutes.

The Pacers were clearly better without him on the floor.

Al Jefferson’s Season Summed up in One Archer GIF

Looking at Al’s stats:

Sweatin’ Bullets

Sweatin’ Bullets is an 8p9s tradition started by Jonny Auping in which we offer standalone facts, observations, and commentary, often devoid of context or fairness.

• Big Al ranked 107th in salary this season. He ranked 202nd in win shares, played the 291st most minutes, and was 412th (!!!) in VORP.
• Al Jefferson only has four million dollars guaranteed in 2018-2019. If he is awful next season, he can be waived and only be owed that much money. That is both a good thing for the Pacers and a good thing for Al’s trade value. If the Pacers can get a second round pick for him, Pritchard should explore that option.
• Two of the three worst Al Jefferson games in terms of +/- were against the Nets this season. That’s right, in two of his worst three games, he was matched up with Justin Hamilton in bench units.
• If Al scored more than 13 points in a game, the Pacers were 7-3 and Al recorded a positive +/- every time. Feed the man every once in a while.
• Before this season, Al had attempted 62 career 3s and Brook Lopez had attempted three. This season, Al Jefferson took one (1!) 3-point shot this season. Brook Lopez took 387. Which player do you think has a higher league-wide value right now?

One Key Question

Can Al get in shape?

The Situation: He only played 14 minutes a game. This was due to a combo of both bad play and inability to play effectively for longer. Al needs to get to a point where he can play for closer to 20 minutes a game so Myles can get more rest.

Best-case Scenario: Al gets back to his Utah days shape and can play anywhere from 25-30 minutes per game when needed. He moves around better on defense and becomes a net neutral player overall.

Worst-case Scenario: Al stays in his current shape, or even worse, gets in worse shape. He is ultimately upended by Kevin Seraphin and gets DNP-CDs every night. His trade value is reduced to nearly zero even though he has almost 14 million guaranteed over the next two season.

Next: Gordon Hayward, Crab Rangoon, and things of that nature

Prediction: Somewhere in the middle of the two. Frankly, Al is old. He is going to slow down. If he improves his physical condition but continues to slow down, he needs to be fundamentally sound to improve. If he can work on being in shape and fundamentals this off-season, he could come back a quite improved player for the Pacers.